1:50 York
The Sky Bet Lowther Stakes is a Group 2 contest for two-year-olds over six furlongs at York on good ground, featuring a large field of 19 runners. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive heat led by Big Negotiator on 72, with a cluster of principals between 67 and 59 underlining the depth on show. Several runners bring course-winning form or strong placed efforts at the trip, though the pace shape remains tentative on limited evidence.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape described as tentative and only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner, the race is likely to unfold with a steady gallop rather than an end-to-end test. Moonrise and Angels Passing have shown front-running or prominent tendencies, while Wild Blossom and Ruby Moon like to race handily; the majority of the field, including the selection, prefer to be held up and come late. The key question is whether the leaders can get an easy enough time of it on the straight track or if the held-up brigade will be able to pick their way through in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Big Negotiator KTB Selection72/100Useful sort who has already won over this course and looks well suited by the step back up to 6f having placed at the trip before.
- 2Livenka67/100Smart performer who has won two of her last three starts including a victory at this trip.
- 3Moonrise64/100Useful performer who has won two of three starts at this trip including a narrow success last time.
- 4Bint Archange62/100Useful performer who has already shown her ability at this level with two wins from five starts.
- 5Love A Giggle59/100Useful performer who won on debut over course and distance on this ground before following up in a nursery.
- 6Jolivette59/100Useful performer who has already won on good ground over this trip.
- 7Wild Blossom59/100Useful performer who has already won on good ground and showed strong pace when successful over 5f.
- 8Libertango58/100Smart 2-year-old with a progressive profile, winning twice at this trip from three starts and showing strong form in the process.
- 9Ruby Moon58/100Ruby Moon showed useful form when winning on debut over this trip then ran creditably when fourth in a stronger race last time.
- 10Shimmering Sun57/100Useful performer who showed smart speed when winning on debut over 5f before finishing second in a strong Listed race.
- 11Miss Kodi55/100Useful performer who has already won over today's trip on her debut.
- 12Star Of State54/100Star Of State has shown useful early talent with two placed efforts from as many starts including a win over today's trip.
- 13Crownbreaker53/100Crownbreaker is a useful colt who has shown strong form this year, including a win and two placed efforts from five starts.
- 14Crystal Queen53/100Crystal Queen is a fair 2-year-old with solid placed form at a lower level and a recent win over 5f.
- 15Alta Regina50/100Useful performer who showed plenty when winning on debut before finishing seventh in the Albany at Ascot and sixth in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes.
- 16In The Black49/100In The Black made a winning debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him.
- 17Angels Passing46/100Fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut over this trip on good ground before finishing fourth here last time.
- 18Sexy Chick45/100Sexy Chick is a fair 2yo with solid recent form including a win over today's trip.
- 19Desert Sands42/100Desert Sands is a fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form across four starts, including a placed effort on his third run.
The contenders
Big Negotiator KTB Fit 72/100
Big Negotiator arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 72 and is the selection. A useful sort, he has already won over this course and looks well suited by the step back up to 6f having placed at the trip before. Two wins from four starts on good ground add to the positives while the first-time headgear is an interesting addition. The trainer strikes at 20% here from a smallish sample with an A/E of 1.15 from 10 runs and the jockey is equally effective at York with an 18% strike rate and A/E of 1.53 from 17 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 13 and his recent form reads 321041.
Livenka KTB Fit 67/100
Livenka is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 67. A smart performer, she has won two of her last three starts including a victory at this trip. She has handled good ground well with two wins from four runs and looks to have the right connections at York. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.54 from 16 runs while the jockey boasts a 24% strike rate here and an A/E of 2.22 from 25 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 18, her wide draw adds a note of caution and her recent form is 3311.
Moonrise KTB Fit 64/100
Moonrise carries a KTB Fit Score of 64. A useful performer, she has won two of three starts at this trip including a narrow success last time. Drawn widest of all in stall 16 which is far from ideal on a straight track. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.06 from 502 runs while the jockey posts a 15% strike rate and A/E of 1.06 from 330 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she is unproven on good ground and her recent form reads 121.
Bint Archange KTB Fit 62/100
Bint Archange is next with a KTB Fit Score of 62. A useful performer, she has already shown her ability at this level with two wins from five starts. She handles good ground well having won twice from three starts on it and her trainer has a solid 19% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.45 from 36 runs. Stepping up to 6f for the first time today asks a new question of her while the jockey has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 650 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 9, she is stepping up in class with recent form of 31019.
Love A Giggle KTB Fit 59/100
Love A Giggle has a KTB Fit Score of 59. A useful performer, she won on debut over course and distance on this ground before following up in a nursery. Has since been found out in two stronger races and was well held last time. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.91 from 658 runs while the jockey posts an 11% strike rate and A/E of 0.96 from 222 rides. Usually held up, she has won here once from one run and her high-class pedigree is a plus; she is stepping up in class with recent form of 1104.
The rest of the field
JolivetteKTB Fit 59/100
Jolivette has a KTB Fit Score of 59. A useful performer who has already won on good ground over this trip, her form figures of 195 show a clear drop in standard last time though she still ran to a respectable level. Drawn wide in stall 14 and with only three runs on the board she remains lightly raced.
Wild BlossomKTB Fit 59/100
Wild Blossom has a KTB Fit Score of 59. A useful performer who has already won on good ground and showed strong pace when successful over 5f, stepping up to 6f for the first time poses a fresh question at this level. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at York from a large sample with an A/E of 0.91 from 658 runs which is offset by the jockey; recent form is 101.
LibertangoKTB Fit 58/100
Libertango is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 58. A smart 2-year-old with a progressive profile, winning twice at this trip from three starts and showing strong form in the process. Drawn widest of all in stall 15 which is a clear negative on a straight track. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at York from 46 runs with an A/E of 0.55 which adds a note of caution; recent form is 112.
Ruby MoonKTB Fit 58/100
Ruby Moon carries a KTB Fit Score of 58. She showed useful form when winning on debut over this trip then ran creditably when fourth in a stronger race last time. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 56 runs at York with an A/E of 1.17 while the jockey has a 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.68 from 197 rides; recent form is 14.
Shimmering SunKTB Fit 57/100
Shimmering Sun has a KTB Fit Score of 57. A useful performer who showed smart speed when winning on debut over 5f before finishing second in a strong Listed race, he steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at York from 35 runs with an A/E of 1.08 while the jockey has a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.01 from 325 rides; recent form is 172.
Miss KodiKTB Fit 55/100
Miss Kodi is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 55. A useful performer who has already won over today's trip on her debut, she was only beaten in Listed company last time so arrives in decent form though she remains lightly raced overall. The trainer records a 9% strike rate at York from 177 runs with an A/E of 0.86 while the jockey has a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.11 from 176 rides; recent form is 15.
Star Of StateKTB Fit 54/100
Star Of State has a KTB Fit Score of 54. He has shown useful early talent with two placed efforts from as many starts including a win over today's trip and drops back from 6½f having already handled good ground well in small-sample form. The yard posts a 13% strike rate at York from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.83 while the jockey is aboard with a 25% strike rate and A/E of 0.95 from 4 rides; recent form is 21.
CrownbreakerKTB Fit 53/100
Crownbreaker carries a KTB Fit Score of 53. A useful colt who has shown strong form this year including a win and two placed efforts from five starts, he steps up to 6f for the first time today after his last run over 5f which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 30 runs at York with an A/E of 1.18; recent form is 32510.
Crystal QueenKTB Fit 53/100
Crystal Queen has a KTB Fit Score of 53. A fair 2-year-old with solid placed form at a lower level and a recent win over 5f, she steps up in trip and class today from a wide draw in stall 19 which asks fresh questions. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at York from 56 runs with an A/E of 1.17 while the jockey has a 10% strike rate and A/E of 1.04 from 262 rides; recent form is 210.
Alta ReginaKTB Fit 50/100
Alta Regina is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 50. A useful performer who showed plenty when winning on debut before finishing seventh in the Albany at Ascot and sixth in the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes, dropping back to six furlongs poses a fresh question after those stiff tasks. The yard has a modest 0% strike rate from eight runs at York with an A/E of 0 while the jockey is 11% from 157 rides with an A/E of 0.93; recent form is 167.
In The BlackKTB Fit 49/100
In The Black has a KTB Fit Score of 49. He made a winning debut over 5f and now steps up to 6f for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate from 121 runs at York with an A/E of 0.88; with only one run on the board and limited data overall this is very much a case of reading the form with caution and he is stepping up in class.
Angels PassingKTB Fit 46/100
Angels Passing carries a KTB Fit Score of 46. A fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut over this trip on good ground before finishing fourth here last time, this still looks a stiff step up into Class 1 company. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 1214 runs at York with an A/E of 0.86 while the jockey has a 7% strike rate and A/E of 0.68 from 264 rides; recent form is 41.
Sexy ChickKTB Fit 45/100
Sexy Chick has a KTB Fit Score of 45. A fair 2yo with solid recent form including a win over today's trip, she steps back up to 6f having last run over 5f and holds a useful draw in stall 1. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 59 runs at York with an A/E of 0.65; recent form is 2518.
Desert SandsKTB Fit 42/100
Desert Sands is rated with a KTB Fit Score of 42. A fair 2-year-old who has shown mixed form across four starts including a placed effort on his third run, he steps up from 5f to 6f today having already tried the distance three times without success which poses a fresh question at this level. The yard has no recorded runners at York while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.87 from 518 rides and he is stepping up in class; recent form is 6093.
KTB verdict
Big Negotiator is the KTB Selection. He has already won over the course and looks well suited by the return to 6f having placed at the trip before, with two wins from four starts on good ground and the first-time headgear an interesting addition. The trainer and jockey both operate with above-average figures at York which adds to the appeal of a horse who usually comes from off the pace. His main dangers are likely to be Livenka, who brings smart recent form and has the right connections at the track, and Moonrise, who has won twice at the trip but must overcome a wide draw. Bint Archange and Love A Giggle also have solid claims on their best efforts.
KTB Selection Big Negotiator
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 20 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Livenka | 15/2 | Midnite |
| Angels Passing | 50/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at York over this distance?
Big Negotiator has won here once from one run and Love A Giggle has also won here once from one run over course and distance.
How many runners are stepping up in class for this Group 2 contest?
Bint Archange, Love A Giggle, Wild Blossom, In The Black, Angels Passing, Desert Sands and Crystal Queen to an extent are all stepping up in class.
Which principals are unproven on good ground?
Moonrise has no runs on good ground and is therefore unproven on the going.
What is the widest draw in the field and which horse has it?
Crystal Queen is drawn in stall 19, the widest draw, while Livenka is in stall 18 and Moonrise in stall 16.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at York among those riding in this race?
Colin Keane has a 24% strike rate at York with an A/E of 2.22 from 25 rides while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 25% strike rate from a small sample of 4 rides.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies