4:56 Leopardstown
This 7f maiden for two-year-old fillies at Leopardstown on good to firm ground features a field of 15 with plenty of debutants and lightly raced types. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining the usual depth of such contests at this venue, though the numbers point to a race where proven performers hold an edge over the unknowns. So Lovely stands out on the figures having already shown consistent promise in two starts, while the Aidan O'Brien and Joseph Patrick O'Brien yards are well represented among both the principals and the remainder of the field.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with medium confidence, suggesting one clear front-runner is likely to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Voyage Of Survival is the only confirmed front-runner in the field and is expected to take up that role from stall 1, while most of the principals are held-up or midfield types. The key question will be whether the uncontested leader can dictate terms throughout or if the closers, including the selection, can muster enough late kick on this good to firm surface to bridge the gap.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1So Lovely KTB Selection49/100So Lovely has shown solid early promise with two seconds from as many starts, including a placed effort over this trip and when last seen here at Leopardstown.
- 2Fair Say48/100Fair Say is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample.
- 3Native Jewel47/100Native Jewel is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample.
- 4Long Haired Lady47/100Long Haired Lady is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 5Isle Of Capri46/100Aidan O'Brien's lightly-raced juvenile showed little on debut when finishing sixth over this trip.
- 6Brooq45/100Brooq is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable.
- 7Little Darling45/100Little Darling is a newcomer from a yard that has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 447 runs.
- 8Villaray44/100Lightly raced and low confidence, this 2yo showed little on debut when finishing 8th over 7½f at this track.
- 9Ever My Treasure44/100Henry De Bromhead's newcomer is by Churchill out of a useful sister to Group 1 winner Alice Springs and was bought for 72,000 euros as a yearling.
- 10Zenith Blaze44/100Son of Blue Point out of a useful 7f winner who is a half-sister to Group 3 winner No Nay Never.
- 11Bougie Gals44/100Bougie Gals is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8% strike rate from 167 runs at Leopardstown.
- 12Miss Hong Kong44/100Miss Hong Kong is a first-time runner from the Aidan O'Brien yard.
- 13Voyage Of Survival42/100Voyage Of Survival has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh of seven on debut and then last of seven at six furlongs.
- 14Katty41/100Katty showed very little on her sole start over 6f.
- 15Voice Of You39/100Lightly raced with just two runs and both at this trip without success.
The contenders
So Lovely KTB Fit 49/100
So Lovely brings the strongest form in the race having finished second on both starts, including a placed effort over this trip and when last seen at Leopardstown. The yard fires in regularly at this track with a 20% strike rate from nearly 3000 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination shows a 15% strike rate from 1483 runs with an A/E of 0.84. Everything else rests on a very small sample so the filly remains open to improvement but needs to be treated with caution. She has been placed once from one run on good to firm and her held-up run style means she will be relying on the leaders to come back to her in what is set to be a race with an uncontested leader. The booking of Wayne Lordan from draw 7 adds to the interest for a filly who has already shown solid early promise.
Fair Say KTB Fit 48/100
Fair Say is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample. The trainer's record here gives some confidence in the debutant, though with no racecourse form the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Chris Hayes takes the ride on this Kingman filly from draw 11. The yard and jockey combination shows a 12% strike rate from 1135 runs with an A/E of 0.76. With the pace likely to be dominated by a lone leader, this debutant will need to show plenty on her first start to get involved at the business end.
Native Jewel KTB Fit 47/100
Native Jewel is a newcomer from a powerful yard that has a solid 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable knows this track well and the booking of Shane Foley adds further interest on debut from draw 5. With low data confidence everything else rests on the pedigree and sales background which have yet to be tested. The trainer and jockey combination shows an 11% strike rate from 45 runs with an A/E of 0.82. As a Wootton Bassett filly she represents a sire with a 13% overall win rate, but in a race with a clear lone leader she will need to break well and show her hand quickly if she is to feature.
Long Haired Lady KTB Fit 47/100
Long Haired Lady is a newcomer with no racecourse experience from draw 10. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues, while connections have yet to show their hand at this level. Data confidence is low so any firm view would be unwise. The trainer has limited data available at this track, while the jockey shows a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 669 rides with an A/E of 0.86. As a Camelot filly she carries a sire with a 12% overall win rate, but against proven performers and in a race with an uncontested leader she faces a stiff introduction.
Isle Of Capri KTB Fit 46/100
Isle Of Capri showed little on debut when finishing sixth over this trip for Donnacha Aidan O'Brien. The wide draw in stall 14 adds to the unknowns for a horse with just one run in the book. Trainer record at the track stands at 10% from 153 runs while Paddy Harnett is taking the ride with a 5lb claim. The combination shows an 11% strike rate from 170 runs with an A/E of 0.78. She has no experience on good to firm ground and typically settles in midfield, which may not be ideal given the projected uncontested lead up front. The small sample means she remains one to treat with caution.
The rest of the field
BrooqKTB Fit 45/100
Brooq is a newcomer from the powerful Aidan O'Brien stable. The yard's 10% strike rate from 153 runs at Leopardstown is modest for such a big operation. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the colt's chance rests entirely on his pedigree and sales background.
Little DarlingKTB Fit 45/100
Little Darling is a newcomer from a yard that has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 447 runs. The data confidence is low so any view rests almost entirely on pedigree and sales information that has not been supplied here. Connections will be hoping the filly can show enough on debut to build from.
VillarayKTB Fit 44/100
Villaray showed little on debut when finishing 8th over 7½f at this track. Drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 1181 runs here while jockey is 7% from 628 rides at Leopardstown. She has no experience on good to firm.
Ever My TreasureKTB Fit 44/100
Ever My Treasure is a newcomer by Churchill out of a useful sister to Group 1 winner Alice Springs and was bought for 72,000 euros as a yearling. First-time headgear is an interesting call on debut and the yard's modest 8% strike-rate at Leopardstown from a big sample suggests this is not one of their stronger two-year-olds. Connections are respected but with low data confidence and a wide draw this looks like one to watch for the future rather than expect immediate fireworks.
Zenith BlazeKTB Fit 44/100
Zenith Blaze is a son of Blue Point out of a useful 7f winner who is a half-sister to Group 3 winner No Nay Never. Cost 300,000 euros as a yearling and is the first foal to race from the dam. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from over a thousand runs while Declan McDonogh is the chosen jockey for this debutant.
Bougie GalsKTB Fit 44/100
Bougie Gals is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8% strike rate from 167 runs at Leopardstown. The trainer has a modest record here overall. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
Miss Hong KongKTB Fit 44/100
Miss Hong Kong is a first-time runner from the Aidan O'Brien yard. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate from 153 runs at Leopardstown. With low data confidence and no racecourse form available, the assessment rests entirely on her pedigree and sales background.
Voyage Of SurvivalKTB Fit 42/100
Voyage Of Survival has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh of seven on debut and then last of seven at six furlongs. The yard has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Leopardstown and first-time headgear is now applied. Stepping up to seven furlongs is a fresh question for this lightly-raced colt and the small sample means the assessment must be treated with caution. Confirmed front-runner who is likely to set the pace.
KattyKTB Fit 41/100
Katty showed very little on her sole start over 6f. The step up to 7f is a fresh question and the lightly-raced profile means we have almost no reliable data points. Trainer has a 0% strike rate from 34 runs at Leopardstown.
Voice Of YouKTB Fit 39/100
Voice Of You is lightly raced with just two runs and both at this trip without success. Showed a bit when fifth on debut here but failed to build on it last time. Trainer has only four runs at Leopardstown so too small a sample to judge, while the jockey has no established record at the track either. Typically held up.
KTB verdict
So Lovely is the KTB Selection. She has already shown solid early promise with two seconds from as many starts, including a placed effort over this trip and when last seen at Leopardstown, and the yard's strong 20% strike rate at the track adds to her appeal. The small sample means she must be treated with some caution, but she looks the pick of a field where many others are making their debut or have shown very little. The main dangers are the well-bred newcomers Fair Say and Native Jewel from powerful yards that know this track well, while Voyage Of Survival could take advantage of the uncontested lead if the closers are unable to bridge the gap.
KTB Selection So Lovely
This is the narrative read of the 4:56 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Voyage Of Survival is the only confirmed front-runner and is expected to take up the role of lone leader from stall 1.
How does So Lovely's experience compare to the rest of the field?
So Lovely has two runs and two seconds to her name including a placed effort at this track, while most of the field are debutants or have shown very little.
What is the trainer strike rate at Leopardstown for Aidan O'Brien in this race?
The Aidan O'Brien yard shows a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 153 runs.
Which runners are making their debut?
Fair Say, Native Jewel, Long Haired Lady, Brooq, Little Darling, Ever My Treasure, Zenith Blaze, Bougie Gals and Miss Hong Kong are all debutants.
How many runners have previous experience at Leopardstown?
So Lovely has run once here when second, Villaray has finished eighth here, and Voice Of You has finished fifth here.
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