6:00 Leopardstown
A 21-runner 0-60 handicap over 7f at Leopardstown on good to firm ground looks a typically competitive midweek event. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched, with the top five all rated between 48 and 52, underlining the modest level of the whole field. With little depth to the race on official ratings, the outcome is likely to hinge on which horse can improve for the new trip, headgear, or the prevailing pace set-up.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge. Almost the entire field is composed of held-up runners who produce their effort late, with only one front-runner identified. This setup poses the key question of whether any horse can come from off the pace to reel in a clear leader over a stiff 7f on fast ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ninth Crusade KTB Selection52/100Modest performer who has shown little in five starts this year and was well held when sixth on return at the Curragh.
- 2Faoladh50/100Faoladh is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip and landed a race over course and distance.
- 3Bear Right50/100Modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of his last six starts including two thirds here at Leopardstown.
- 4Mr Perth49/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Leopardstown.
- 5Sporting Hero48/100Sporting Hero is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent record of 106100.
- 6Altimara48/100Modest performer who has won both starts at Leopardstown yet has struggled in recent handicaps with a string of ordinary efforts.
- 7Rappell47/100Modest performer who has won once at this trip but is 0-31 in his last 31 starts and finished ninth of 13 when he tried this track.
- 8Naoi47/100Modest performer who has been placed in three of four starts and drops back to 7f having last run over a mile.
- 9All Hail46/100Modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut second.
- 10Hazrama46/100Modest performer who has been well beaten in all three starts to date.
- 11Free Solo45/100Modest performer who has run five times here without winning, though he has been placed once.
- 12Phoenix Pairc44/100Modest performer who has shown very little in three starts this year and was well beaten on his only previous run here.
- 13Shamanka43/100Shamanka is a limited performer who has shown little spark in four runs this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 14Zheleznaya Dama43/100Modest performer who has shown some spark this season, winning over this trip on her penultimate start and finishing second last time.
- 15La La Lucrative42/100Modest performer who has won three times at this trip from ten attempts and showed his best form when winning at Listowel and Gowran earlier this season.
- 16Jazzit42/100Limited performer who has shown occasional spark without winning.
- 17Kc Bear42/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form this year but failed to build on it when well held in eighth last time.
- 18Brains41/100Brains is a limited 10-year-old with a modest strike rate and recent form that has been largely uncompetitive.
- 19Ballymagreehan41/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little at this track in two previous attempts.
- 20Oppenheimer39/100Oppenheimer has shown very little in six runs and sits firmly in the limited category on ratings and form.
- 21Gordon Bennett34/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little on his most recent start.
The contenders
Ninth Crusade KTB Fit 52/100
Ninth Crusade is a modest performer who has shown little in five starts this year and was well held when sixth on return at the Curragh. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. First-time headgear is now applied but the wide draw in stall 18 adds to the difficulties. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.72 from 167 runs. This 3-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and has no previous experience of good to firm ground or this course.
Faoladh KTB Fit 50/100
Faoladh is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip and landed a race over course and distance. He has a solid course record but has looked limited on his only run on good to firm ground. The trainer holds a 7 percent strike rate from 204 runs here. This 4-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and is ridden by Adam Browne-Souza who has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from 8 rides with an A/E of 0. The combination of trainer and jockey shows a 4/68 (6%) record with an A/E of 0.70.
Bear Right KTB Fit 50/100
Bear Right is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, placing in five of his last six starts including two thirds here at Leopardstown. He is unproven on good to firm ground and now tries first-time headgear in a bid to find extra. Trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at the track from a big sample. This 3-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and is partnered by Shane Foley. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 420/3391 (12%) record with an A/E of 0.81.
Mr Perth KTB Fit 49/100
Mr Perth is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts to date and was well beaten on his only previous visit to Leopardstown. He drops back from 1m today having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at this trip. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate here from 77 runs. This 3-year-old is usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, and remains unproven on good to firm ground. Jockey Wayne Lordan has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.73 from 1260 rides.
Sporting Hero KTB Fit 48/100
Sporting Hero is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent record of 106100. He steps up from 5f to 7f for the first time in over a year and has shown no win or place from two runs on good to firm ground. The yard has a 3% strike rate from 63 runs at Leopardstown. This 6-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence in that run-style, and has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
AltimaraKTB Fit 48/100
Altimara is a modest performer who has won both starts at Leopardstown yet has struggled in recent handicaps with a string of ordinary efforts. The yard's modest record here adds a further negative while this looks a stiff enough trip on his only previous good-to-firm run.
RappellKTB Fit 47/100
Rappell is a modest performer who has won once at this trip but is 0-31 in his last 31 starts and finished ninth of 13 when he tried this track. He has shown bits of form on good to firm ground and the first-time headgear is an interesting change.
NaoiKTB Fit 47/100
Naoi is a modest performer who has been placed in three of four starts and drops back to 7f having last run over a mile. Has shown form at today's trip without winning.
All HailKTB Fit 46/100
All Hail is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising debut second. Steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to land a blow over this trip on his only previous attempt. First-time headgear is now applied.
HazramaKTB Fit 46/100
Hazrama is a modest performer who has been well beaten in all three starts to date. Dropping back to 7f is an unknown at this stage though the yard's strong 17% strike rate at Leopardstown offers some encouragement.
Free SoloKTB Fit 45/100
Free Solo is a modest performer who has run five times here without winning, though he has been placed once. Drops back to his winning trip today having last run over a mile, but he is completely unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried.
Phoenix PaircKTB Fit 44/100
Phoenix Pairc is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts this year and was well beaten on his only previous run here. He has won over today's trip but has never tackled fast ground and now tries first-time headgear from a wide draw.
ShamankaKTB Fit 43/100
Shamanka is a limited performer who has shown little spark in four runs this year and now tries first-time headgear. She steps up from 5f to a trip she has placed at before without winning, though she remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Zheleznaya DamaKTB Fit 43/100
Zheleznaya Dama is a modest performer who has shown some spark this season, winning over this trip on her penultimate start and finishing second last time. She ran poorly on her only previous visit to Leopardstown and has no experience on good to firm ground.
La La LucrativeKTB Fit 42/100
La La Lucrative is a modest performer who has won three times at this trip from ten attempts and showed his best form when winning at Listowel and Gowran earlier this season. He has been below that level on his last two starts and was well held on his only previous run here.
JazzitKTB Fit 42/100
Jazzit is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark without winning. Finished second of 14 over this course and trip on his latest start and has a placed effort on good to firm, so the conditions look suitable. First-time headgear is now applied.
Kc BearKTB Fit 42/100
Kc Bear is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form this year but failed to build on it when well held in eighth last time. Unproven on good to firm and yet to win over this trip in three attempts.
BrainsKTB Fit 41/100
Brains is a limited 10-year-old with a modest strike rate and recent form that has been largely uncompetitive. He has won at both this track and trip in the past, though his sole run on good to firm produced no reward. First-time headgear is now reached for and he is the only front-runner in the field.
BallymagreehanKTB Fit 41/100
Ballymagreehan is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and showed little at this track in two previous attempts. Placed once at this trip but that was some time ago and he remains unproven on good to firm ground.
OppenheimerKTB Fit 39/100
Oppenheimer has shown very little in six runs and sits firmly in the limited category on ratings and form. A poor run here on his only previous visit to Leopardstown adds to the negatives while he has failed to trouble the judge in three attempts at this trip.
Gordon BennettKTB Fit 34/100
Gordon Bennett is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little on his most recent start. He has never won or placed at this track from two runs here and has placed once on good to firm and at this trip but overall the record suggests he will struggle from a wide draw.
KTB verdict
Ninth Crusade is the KTB Selection. Although a modest performer who has shown little in five starts this year, he is stepped up to 7f for the first time with first-time headgear applied, which could unlock improvement in a race lacking depth. The wide draw in stall 18 is a concern given his held-up style, but the uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape may give closers a target to aim at if the leader does not get an easy time. The main dangers are Faoladh with his solid course record, the consistent Bear Right who has placed twice here, and Mr Perth who drops back in trip.
KTB Selection Ninth Crusade
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:15 UTC, 20 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rappell | 12/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Free Solo | 25/1 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Ninth Crusade, Bear Right, Rappell, All Hail, Phoenix Pairc, Shamanka, Free Solo, Brains and Jazzit are all wearing first-time headgear.
How many horses in the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Nine horses have no runs on good to firm: Ninth Crusade, Bear Right, Mr Perth, Naoi, All Hail, Free Solo, Phoenix Pairc, Shamanka and Zheleznaya Dama, Kc Bear and Oppenheimer.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown in this race?
D K Weld has a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3166 runs with Hazrama.
Who is the only front-runner in the field?
Brains is the only horse with a front-running run-style; the remainder are held up or, in one case, mid-division.
Which horse has the best course record at Leopardstown?
Altimara has won both starts at the track (2 from 2), while Faoladh has also won over course and distance.
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