7:30 Leopardstown
The 7.30 at Leopardstown is a 1m maiden on good to firm ground that features a field of 14 largely unexposed three-year-olds along with a couple of older lightly-raced runners. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 42, underlining the modest standard of the race and the number of unknowns attached to most participants. With a genuinely-run pace shape expected, the ability to settle, travel and produce a finishing effort at the end of a fair test will be key.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several prominent and handy types in what is rated a genuinely-run race with high confidence. This sets up a fair test at the trip where those racing prominently should be able to get a decent early position, while held-up runners will need to time their late efforts carefully. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can maintain their effort in the straight or whether the race will fall to something coming from off the pace in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Nottooshabby KTB Selection53/100Nottooshabby has shown only modest form in two starts so far and was well held when seventh on his only previous visit to Leopardstown.
- 2Port Arthur50/100Port Arthur has shown fair form in three starts, finishing third on each occasion including when stepped up to 7f last time.
- 3Time Whisperer48/100Time Whisperer showed only modest form when seventh on debut over this trip.
- 4Lonelyharbourwall48/100Lightly raced with just two career starts and a recent eighth that tells us little.
- 5Goddess Of War47/100Goddess Of War showed fair form when fourth on debut over 1m1½f.
- 6Eldorado Glory45/100Eldorado Glory has only one run behind him and showed little at 7f last time.
- 7Aghadrum Boy45/100Aghadrum Boy showed fair form when fourth on debut over 7f but failed to build on it last time.
- 8Mothel Abbey44/100Mothel Abbey showed very little on debut at this track over 1m1f, finishing eighth.
- 9Scorcher's Son44/100Scorcher's Son is a debutant so the only guide is his pedigree and the yard's record here.
- 10My Shayla44/100My Shayla showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip.
- 11King Of Eze44/100King Of Eze has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last.
- 12Holy Lettuce43/100Holy Lettuce has shown fair placed form at this trip on his two starts and remains lightly raced.
- 13Uncle Goalie42/100Uncle Goalie has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fourth then third without suggesting he is anything better than modest.
- 14Aiteall42/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 0-5 record so far.
The contenders
Nottooshabby KTB Fit 53/100
Nottooshabby has shown only modest form in two starts so far and was well held when seventh on his only previous visit to Leopardstown. He drops back to 1m today having failed to make an impact at that trip last time. The trainer Patrick J Flynn has a 7% strike rate at the track from 552 runs while Robyn Donaghue-Leahy is aboard and brings a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from just 14 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is unproven on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit score of 53 is the highest in the field and he is the selection.
Port Arthur KTB Fit 50/100
Port Arthur has shown fair form in three starts, finishing third on each occasion including when stepped up to 7f last time. He now steps up in trip again to 1m which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 77 runs at Leopardstown while Wayne Lordan has an 8% strike rate at the track from a large sample. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is unproven on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit score of 50 places him right in the mix.
Time Whisperer KTB Fit 48/100
Time Whisperer showed only modest form when seventh on debut over this trip. The lightly-raced colt brings a small sample so expectations must be kept in check. Trainer Liam P Cusack holds a 9% strike rate from 46 runs at Leopardstown while Seamie Heffernan is aboard with a 10% strike rate at the track from a very large sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is unproven on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit score of 48 keeps him in the conversation.
Lonelyharbourwall KTB Fit 48/100
Lonelyharbourwall is lightly raced with just two career starts and a recent eighth that tells us little. He drops back in trip to 1m today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Trainer D K Weld has a solid 17% strike rate from 3166 runs at Leopardstown while Chris Hayes has an 8% strike rate at the track from over a thousand rides. Typically settling in midfield, he has one run on good to firm that brought no win or place. The KTB Fit score of 48 reflects the difficulty in assessing him with such a small sample.
Goddess Of War KTB Fit 47/100
Goddess Of War showed fair form when fourth on debut over 1m1½f. She now drops back in trip to 1m which poses a fresh question. The trainer Mrs John Harrington has a 10% strike rate from 1833 runs at Leopardstown while Shane Foley has an 11% strike rate at the track from over a thousand rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, she is unproven on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit score of 47 leaves her with place claims at best.
The rest of the field
Eldorado GloryKTB Fit 45/100
Eldorado Glory has only one run behind him and showed little at 7f last time. He steps up to a mile now which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample of rides and the KTB Fit score is 45.
Aghadrum BoyKTB Fit 45/100
Aghadrum Boy showed fair form when fourth on debut over 7f but failed to build on it last time. He steps up to 1m today which poses a fresh question while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 43 runs offers little encouragement. With only two career runs the small sample means his ability remains hard to pin down and the KTB Fit score is 45.
Mothel AbbeyKTB Fit 44/100
Mothel Abbey showed very little on debut at this track over 1m1f, finishing eighth. The drop back to 1m poses a fresh question. Trainer Patrick J Flynn has a 7% strike rate from 552 runs at Leopardstown while lightly-raced jockey Alan Persse has no established record here and the KTB Fit score is 44.
Scorcher's SonKTB Fit 44/100
Scorcher's Son is a debutant so the only guide is his pedigree and the yard's record here. Connections are respected with Joseph Patrick O'Brien holding a solid 12% strike rate from over a thousand runs at Leopardstown. The wide draw in stall 12 adds another unknown on his first start and the KTB Fit score is 44.
My ShaylaKTB Fit 44/100
My Shayla showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown from a large sample. First-time headgear is now applied but with just one run on the clock any assessment has to be tentative and the KTB Fit score is 44.
King Of EzeKTB Fit 44/100
King Of Eze has shown little in two starts so far, finishing seventh then last. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown offers no encouragement, while first-time headgear is an obvious attempt to spark improvement. With only two runs on his record the colt remains hard to assess and the KTB Fit score is 44.
Holy LettuceKTB Fit 43/100
Holy Lettuce has shown fair placed form at this trip on his two starts and remains lightly raced. The small sample means any firm conclusions on his ability or preferences are tentative. Trainer K J Condon has a 6% strike rate from 216 runs at Leopardstown while jockey Donagh O'Connor has no supplied record at the track and the KTB Fit score is 43.
Uncle GoalieKTB Fit 42/100
Uncle Goalie has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fourth then third without suggesting he is anything better than modest. He steps up from 7f to 1m today, a trip he has tried once without success, while the small sample makes it impossible to be sure about his effectiveness on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both have very limited data at Leopardstown so their local effectiveness remains unknown and the KTB Fit score is 42.
AiteallKTB Fit 42/100
Aiteall is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a modest 0-5 record so far. Dropping back from 1m4f to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while the sole course run produced a remote 13th. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate from over a thousand Leopardstown runners and the KTB Fit score is 42.
KTB verdict
Nottooshabby tops the KTB Fit scores on 53 and is taken as the selection. He has shown only modest form to date and was well held on his sole previous run at Leopardstown, but the drop back to 1m and the booking of Robyn Donaghue-Leahy may help him improve on what he has shown so far. The main dangers are Port Arthur, who brings the best recent placed form of the field, and Time Whisperer, who is lightly raced and could step forward from a modest debut. Lonelyharbourwall and Goddess Of War add further depth to what looks an ordinary maiden.
KTB Selection Nottooshabby
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to firm and held up in running?
Nottooshabby is unproven on good to firm and is usually held up and produces his effort late.
Which runners are prominent in the expected pace shape?
Port Arthur and Goddess Of War are prominent runners, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Leopardstown for the selection?
Patrick J Flynn has a 7% strike rate at Leopardstown from 552 runs.
Which horse is making its debut and has a wide draw?
Scorcher's Son is a debutant with a wide draw in stall 12.
Who is the only runner with placed form on good to firm?
Holy Lettuce is placed once from one run on good to firm.
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