8:00 Leopardstown
This is a competitive Dublin To Bahrain Fillies Handicap over a mile at Leopardstown on good to firm ground, with a field of eight runners where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 59 and 44. The race lacks a natural leader, setting up a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy could prove advantageous. Overall the KTB numbers highlight useful performers with course form and several first-time headgear applications, suggesting the outcome will hinge on which horse handles the conditions and the new headgear most effectively.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner in the field, the pace is expected to be steady rather than strong, producing a tactical affair where those positioned handy can pounce at the right moment. Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race could develop into a sprint for the line from around two furlongs out. The key question is whether the lack of early pace will play into the hands of the hold-up performers or if one of them can overcome the steady gallop to deliver from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Pink Oxalis KTB Selection59/100Useful performer who has won once from two runs at Leopardstown and has placed on good to firm.
- 2Glory To Be56/100Glory To Be is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning over 7f here last season.
- 3Duchess Of Kenli56/100Fair performer who showed marked improvement when winning her maiden over this trip on her second start.
- 4Mallavelly53/100Fair sort who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 5Thrifty Of Digby50/100Fair performer who has won three times over this trip but steps up in distance today having last run over 7f.
- 6Tachos48/100Modest performer who has won once in nine runs at Leopardstown and is well placed from stall one.
- 7Marmeladova45/100Fair performer who has already won over this course in two visits.
- 8Bella Colombia44/100Bella Colombia is a fair mare who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown and arrives in solid form after three wins from her last six outings.
The contenders
Pink Oxalis KTB Fit 59/100
Pink Oxalis is a useful performer who has won once from two runs at Leopardstown and has placed on good to firm. She drops back to a trip where she has four wins from 14 starts and now tries headgear for the first time. The Stephen Thorne yard has a solid 10% strike rate from 21 runs at the track, though the jockey has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from 60 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late from a draw of two, she arrives with recent form figures of 035625 and is the KTB Selection in a race that could suit her style given the lack of pace up front.
Glory To Be KTB Fit 56/100
Glory To Be is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning over 7f here last season. He steps up to a mile for the first time today having last run over 6½f, while first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate from 77 runs at Leopardstown and the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track from 76 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw six, he has recent form figures of 795210 and has placed once from three runs on good to firm without winning, with a course record of one win from one run.
Duchess Of Kenli KTB Fit 56/100
Duchess Of Kenli is a fair performer who showed marked improvement when winning her maiden over this trip on her second start. She has only had two runs and remains open to further progress. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1062 runs while Declan McDonogh takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at the track from 1503 rides. She is unproven on good to firm ground with no runs on the surface and has no course form on record, though her recent form figures of 6-1 indicate promise from draw three.
Mallavelly KTB Fit 53/100
Mallavelly is a fair sort who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been ordinary though and he now steps back up in distance having last run over 7f. First-time headgear is tried as he lines up from draw eight with recent form figures of -07236. The G M Lyons yard has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1181 runs and the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track from 628 rides. He has a record of one win from five runs on good to firm with two placed efforts and has won once from four starts at the course.
The rest of the field
Thrifty Of DigbyKTB Fit 50/100
Thrifty Of Digby is a fair performer who has won three times over this trip but steps up in distance today having last run over 7f. Placed once from two runs at Leopardstown and connections have a solid 10 percent strike rate here from a huge sample. First-time headgear is tried on ground he has never encountered.
TachosKTB Fit 48/100
Tachos is a modest performer who has won once in nine runs at Leopardstown and is well placed from stall one. Drops back to a trip where he has placed twice without winning and tries headgear for the first time after a mixed recent run of form. Trainer Dermot Weld has a solid 17% strike rate here from a huge sample while jockey Chris Hayes is 12% from 1,057 rides at the track.
MarmeladovaKTB Fit 45/100
Marmeladova is a fair performer who has already won over this course in two visits. Recent form is mixed with a win and a second but also three poor efforts, while the drop back from 1m4f to 1m asks a fresh question today. Trainer records a 6% strike rate here from 216 runs and this mare has failed to place on her only previous run on good to firm ground.
Bella ColombiaKTB Fit 44/100
Bella Colombia is a fair mare who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown and arrives in solid form after three wins from her last six outings. She drops back to a trip she has won at twice from 15 starts though her sole run on good to firm ground brought no reward. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 379 runs at the track tempers expectations.
KTB verdict
Pink Oxalis is the KTB Selection. She brings useful form to the table, has already won at this track, and drops to a distance that has brought her four victories from 14 starts while first-time headgear is now fitted. Her held-up style should be suited to the steadily-run nature of the race, and the trainer's solid record at Leopardstown adds further confidence. The main dangers are Glory To Be, who has course-winning form and also tries headgear, the progressive Duchess Of Kenli who remains open to improvement, and Mallavelly who has won over the course and distance.
KTB Selection Pink Oxalis
This is the narrative read of the 8:00 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Pink Oxalis, Glory To Be, Mallavelly, Thrifty Of Digby and Tachos are all trying headgear for the first time.
How many horses in the field have previously won at Leopardstown?
Pink Oxalis, Glory To Be, Mallavelly, Tachos, Marmeladova and Bella Colombia have all won at the track.
Which runner is completely unproven on good to firm ground?
Duchess Of Kenli has no runs on good to firm and Thrifty Of Digby has never encountered the surface.
What is the trainer strike rate at Leopardstown for the handler of the KTB Selection?
Stephen Thorne has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 21 runs.
Which horse has the highest trainer strike rate at the track among those listed?
D K Weld has a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3166 runs with Tachos.
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