4:30 Ffos Las
This Class 6 classified stakes over 1m2f at Ffos Las on good ground brings together an 11-runner field of largely limited performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Typeface heading the numbers on 61, closely followed by Lapidarist on 58 and Charencey on 54. With no obvious front-runner in a pace shape that lacks a leader, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning and timing from off the pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no one obviously wants the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being handy should pay. Almost the entire field consists of hold-up types who produce their efforts late, so the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is which of these hold-up performers can time their run best off what should be an even gallop, with those drawn towards the inside potentially benefiting from a clear path.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Typeface KTB Selection61/100Typeface is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form of late and has already won twice from three starts at this track.
- 2Lapidarist58/100Limited horse who has shown just fair form at best across 14 starts and looks vulnerable in this company again.
- 3Charencey54/100Limited class performer who has been placed on his last two starts and looks ready to go well again from a fair draw.
- 4Gert Lush51/100Gert Lush is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form of late, finishing no worse than third in three of his last four starts.
- 5City Escape50/100City Escape is a limited performer on his overall record and has been out of the frame on his last five starts.
- 6Racing Demon49/100Racing Demon is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time without winning.
- 7King Of The Dance45/100Limited performer who has been placed twice from seven runs at this track without winning.
- 8A Rose Adaay45/100Limited horse who has shown consistent but modest form this year without winning.
- 9Elora Prince44/100Limited performer who has failed to win in 14 starts and looks no better than modest on recent form.
- 10Prophet Squeeze36/100Prophet Squeeze is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in his latest runs.
- 11Strong Man Tom25/100Strong Man Tom has shown very little in six starts and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder here.
The contenders
Typeface KTB Fit 61/100
Typeface is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form of late and has already won twice from three starts at this track. He handles good ground well with two wins and three places from four runs, though he is still to score over today's trip in three attempts. The yard and jockey both hold solid records here, with Ian Williams posting a 20% strike rate at Ffos Las from 66 runs and an A/E of 1.18, while Harry Vigors rides at a 22% strike rate from nine rides with an A/E of 1.19. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall three which could help in a race where being handy pays. His recent form figures of 7-6433 underline the placed consistency that makes him the KTB Selection.
Lapidarist KTB Fit 58/100
Lapidarist is a limited horse who has shown just fair form at best across 14 starts and looks vulnerable in this company again. Trainer David Simcock has a solid 22% strike rate here from 74 runs while jockey Taryn Langley is operating at an impressive 31% from her 13 rides at the track, though their combined record reads 9/84 with an A/E of 0.68. He has been placed twice at this trip but has only run once on good ground, where he failed to win or place. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall four, he arrives with recent form figures of 352642 that reflect his modest level. The lack of course form adds another layer of uncertainty.
Charencey KTB Fit 54/100
Charencey is a limited class performer who has been placed on his last two starts and looks ready to go well again from a fair draw. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip he has placed at before is a positive, though he is only 1 from 9 on good ground. Ian Williams and Joe Leavy both have solid recent records at Ffos Las, the yard showing a 20% strike rate from 66 runs with an A/E of 1.18 and the jockey a 23% strike rate from 31 rides with an A/E of 1.17, though their combined figures read 6/45 with an A/E of 0.79. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall seven, his recent form of 576223 suggests he can be thereabouts once more.
Gert Lush KTB Fit 51/100
Gert Lush is a limited performer who has shown consistent placed form of late, finishing no worse than third in three of his last four starts. He has been placed both starts at this track and acts on good ground with four wins from 17 attempts. Stepping up to 1m2f poses a fresh question though he has placed without winning at the trip in the past. Usually held up, though with limited evidence, from stall nine, the nine-year-old arrives with form figures of /72832. Trainer Roger Teal has a 16% strike rate at the track from 32 runs with an A/E of 0.89 while jockey Gina Mangan posts an 11% strike rate from 64 rides with an A/E of 0.88.
City Escape KTB Fit 50/100
City Escape is a limited performer on his overall record and has been out of the frame on his last five starts. He has won twice from five runs at Ffos Las and has also won at this trip, though his record on good ground shows only one placing from seven starts. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate here from 131 runs and the jockey's 8% from 59 rides add little encouragement, with their combined record reading 3/25 with an A/E of 2.33. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall eight, the nine-year-old has recent form figures of -66556 that offer little encouragement despite his course record.
The rest of the field
Racing DemonKTB Fit 49/100
Racing Demon is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level for some time without winning. He has placed once from five starts at Ffos Las and is 2-15 on good ground, though he is now trying headgear for the first time. The Ed de Giles yard has a modest 9% strike rate here while Luke Morris fares a bit better at 15%, with their combined record reading 5/73 with an A/E of 0.70.
King Of The DanceKTB Fit 45/100
King Of The Dance is a limited performer who has been placed twice from seven runs at this track without winning. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground but steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact in two previous tries at this distance. The yard's modest record here adds little confidence, with the trainer on a 9% strike rate from 500 runs and an A/E of 0.83, while the jockey is 0-1 at the track.
A Rose AdaayKTB Fit 45/100
A Rose Adaay is a limited horse who has shown consistent but modest form this year without winning. She has placed here before and handles good ground, yet steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate at the track from 161 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first Ffos Las winner from 13 rides, with their combined record 0-6.
Elora PrinceKTB Fit 44/100
Elora Prince is a limited performer who has failed to win in 14 starts and looks no better than modest on recent form. Has been tried over this trip three times without success and showed only minor promise when fourth on his sole visit to Ffos Las. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track, the yard on 9% from 110 runs with an A/E of 0.75 and the jockey on 9% from 110 rides with an A/E of 0.64.
Prophet SqueezeKTB Fit 36/100
Prophet Squeeze is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in his latest runs. He has no win or place from five attempts at this track and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate here adds little encouragement. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown and the jockey remains winless from ten rides at Ffos Las.
Strong Man TomKTB Fit 25/100
Strong Man Tom has shown very little in six starts and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder here. The yard's modest record at Ffos Las offers no encouragement and neither does the 0-from-15 record of the 3lb claimer. First-time headgear is tried as he steps back up to 1m2f where he has already been beaten three times.
KTB verdict
Typeface stands out as the KTB Selection. A limited performer, he has shown consistent placed form of late and boasts a strong record at this track with two wins from three starts, while handling good ground well. Usually held up, he should be suited by the steadily-run affair that is likely to unfold, with the yard and jockey both holding solid records at Ffos Las. His main dangers are Charencey, who is in decent form and benefits from the drop in trip, and Gert Lush, who has been consistently placed of late and has course form to his name.
KTB Selection Typeface
This is the narrative read of the 4:30 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record in the field?
Typeface has won twice from three starts at Ffos Las.
How many runners in this race are usually held up?
All 11 runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late, though confidence in the run-style varies for a couple.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Ffos Las among those represented?
David Simcock has a 22% strike rate at Ffos Las from 74 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at the track in this field?
Taryn Langley has a 31% strike rate at Ffos Las from 13 rides.
Which horses are making their first attempt at headgear?
Racing Demon and Strong Man Tom are both trying headgear for the first time.
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