5:07 Hamilton
This Class 4 fillies' handicap at Hamilton over 1m1f35y on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine, most of whom are stepping up or down in trip while carrying unproven elements on the surface. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Porth Eilian heading the numbers on 61, followed closely by Foxy Night on 59, Polygram on 57 and Thankfully on 54. Several runners arrive in consistent form yet the pace shape points to an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the many hold-up performers to overcome.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead with little pressure from the rest of the field. Most principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop early before a sprint for the line. This setup poses the key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap to a clear leader on a track where front-running tactics have proved effective.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Porth Eilian KTB Selection61/100Porth Eilian is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts.
- 2Foxy Night59/100Foxy Night has shown consistent fair form in five runs this year, finishing no worse than third and looking just as effective at 7f as over shorter.
- 3Polygram57/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year with two wins and several placed efforts from his last six starts.
- 4Thankfully54/100Fair performer who won on good to soft on debut but has struggled since, finishing well beaten in all four starts this year.
- 5Wild Dahlia52/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all five starts including a close second on handicap debut last season.
- 6Second Fiddle50/100Modest performer who has run to a similar level on his last three starts without winning.
- 7Saxon Grace49/100Saxon Grace is a limited horse who has been in good form this year with three wins from her last six starts.
- 8Krissy48/100Modest performer who has run four times here without winning but has been placed once.
- 9Sharona39/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on return last month.
The contenders
Porth Eilian KTB Fit 61/100
Porth Eilian is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. He has already shown his liking for this track by winning here from two visits and is in the hands of a trainer who operates at a 29% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.13. The step up to 1m1f today asks a fresh question while the going remains unknown on the basis of only seven career runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time out front. Trainer Edward Bethell and jockey Callum Rodriguez combine with a 20% strike rate from 567 runners and an A/E of 0.91. Having won at the course already, Porth Eilian is the KTB Selection.
Foxy Night KTB Fit 59/100
Foxy Night has shown consistent fair form in five runs this year, finishing no worse than third and looking just as effective at 7f as over shorter. Stepping up to 1m1f today asks a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile means going suitability remains unknown. The yard has only three runs at Hamilton so that sample is too small to judge, though David Egan brings a solid 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.89. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she will need to find a way to close on a clear leader in what looks a steadily-run affair. Trainer John Butler and jockey David Egan combine with a 13% strike rate from 178 runners and an A/E of 1.26. Her consistency makes her a leading contender but the trip remains a question mark.
Polygram KTB Fit 57/100
Polygram is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with two wins and several placed efforts from his last six starts. He has run twice at Hamilton without showing much and is unplaced in both his attempts on good to soft ground. Drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact in his only previous try at this distance. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace against a potential lone leader. Trainer Tristan Davidson and jockey David Allan combine with respective Hamilton strike rates of 20% and 14%. His recent consistency keeps him in the mix but the track record and going record are both modest.
Thankfully KTB Fit 54/100
Thankfully is a fair performer who won on good to soft on debut but has struggled since, finishing well beaten in all four starts this year. Steps up in trip for the first time today having looked stretched at 7f last time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Hamilton with strike rates of 16% and 14% respectively. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she will need to improve markedly on recent efforts to close the gap in a race with an uncontested leader. The K R Burke and Sam James combination shows a 16% strike rate from 782 runners with an A/E of 0.90. Her debut success on similar ground offers some hope but the form since is a major concern.
The rest of the field
Wild DahliaKTB Fit 52/100
Wild Dahlia is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first four on all five starts including a close second on handicap debut last season. Stepping up in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. Haggas has a strong 31% strike rate at Hamilton while Fallon is 2-9 at the track. Usually held up, she remains unproven on good to soft.
Second FiddleKTB Fit 50/100
Second Fiddle is a modest performer who has run to a similar level on his last three starts without winning. He has won once from six runs at Hamilton and both trainer and jockey have solid 12% strike rates here, so the track is no problem. Steps up in trip today having been unplaced in both previous attempts at this distance and remains unproven on good to soft ground.
Saxon GraceKTB Fit 49/100
Saxon Grace is a limited horse who has been in good form this year with three wins from her last six starts. She has run just once at Hamilton and finished a respectable third, while the yard has a solid 15% strike rate here. Dropping back in trip looks a fair question after her last run over 1m2f, though she is only 1-1 when placed at this distance and her sole run on good to soft ground brought no reward.
KrissyKTB Fit 48/100
Krissy is a modest performer who has run four times here without winning but has been placed once. Steps up in trip today having won four of her five starts at this distance though she is unproven on good to soft ground. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Hamilton from a large sample while the jockey is operating at 8% from 63 rides at the track. She is the only front-runner in the field.
SharonaKTB Fit 39/100
Sharona is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and was well beaten on return last month. Drops back from 2m today having already failed to make the frame in her only previous run at this trip. Trainer has too small a sample at Hamilton to judge while the jockey's modest 7% strike rate here adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Porth Eilian looks to hold the strongest claims as the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old with two wins from his last four starts and a course success already on his record, he is with a trainer who strikes at 29% at Hamilton. While the step up to 1m1f and the unknown going are questions, his held-up style should see him delivered at the right time against a lone leader who may get an easy lead. Foxy Night is the obvious danger on the back of consistent fair form, while Polygram's recent wins add further depth to a competitive heat.
KTB Selection Porth Eilian
This is the narrative read of the 5:07 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the only confirmed front-runner?
Krissy is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the nine runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Five runners have no runs on good to soft: Porth Eilian, Foxy Night, Second Fiddle, Krissy and one other with no relevant data supplied.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Hamilton among those with meaningful data?
Edward Bethell has a 29% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.13 from 66 runs.
Which horse has already won over the course?
Porth Eilian has won here from two visits and Second Fiddle has won here from six runs.
What is the KTB Fit Score of the selection?
Porth Eilian has a KTB Fit Score of 61/100.
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