5:35 Chester
This Class 4 handicap over an extended two miles at Chester brings together a field of nine where the official ratings are tightly bunched. The KTB Fit scores highlight a pair of 63-rated horses at the head of the numbers, with the remainder ranging from 59 down to 40, suggesting a competitive race in which course and distance experience plus proven stamina will be at a premium on good to soft ground. Overall the numbers point to a contest where those with previous placed form at the trip and a solid Chester record hold the stronger claims.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners in the line-up. Howth and Dino Bellagio are both inclined to race prominently and set a solid gallop that could stretch the field early. This shape raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the final furlong or two, which in turn would play to the strengths of the hold-up performers who can come from off the speed to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Westerton KTB Selection63/100Fair performer who ran respectably when fifth over course and distance on his latest start.
- 2Venezuelan63/100Venezuelan is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 3Kuredu King59/100Kuredu King is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year but has been below his best on his last two starts.
- 4Howth55/100Fair performer who has shown some consistency without winning for a while.
- 5St Mawes55/100St Mawes is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 6Dino Bellagio51/100Modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career but has looked limited since.
- 7Cranachan51/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at up to 1m4f this year.
- 8Sea And Sun48/100Sea And Sun has shown fair form in four starts this year with two placed efforts and looks capable of staying the longer trip as a progressive sort.
- 9Midnight Rumble40/100Midnight Rumble is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year without winning.
The contenders
Westerton KTB Fit 63/100
Westerton arrives as a fair performer who shaped with credit when fifth over this course and distance on his most recent start. He has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground and steps back up in trip having been placed at this distance before. The yard posts a 14% strike rate at Chester with an A/E of 1.34 from 110 runs, while Darragh Keenan operates with an A/E of 1.5 from 19 rides at the track. Trainer and jockey combined read 6/33 with an A/E of 1.56 and a healthy level-stakes profit of +£20.75. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that looks ideal given the expected strong pace.
Venezuelan KTB Fit 63/100
Venezuelan is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He has been below his best on his last three starts and holds a patchy record at Chester, where three previous runs have yielded no better than fourth. The drop back in trip is an unknown and he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Trainer Gary Hanmer has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.07 from 30 runs, while the 3lb claimer Jack Nicholls is 20% from five rides here with an A/E of 2.26. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that could be an asset if the front-runners go hard.
Kuredu King KTB Fit 59/100
Kuredu King is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year but has been below his best on his last two starts. He has three previous runs at Chester without placing and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. The yard has a solid 12% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 1.3 from 95 runs, while Dougie Costello is 11% from 64 rides here with an A/E of 1.04. The going looks to suit on the balance of his record with one win from two starts on good to soft. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that could fall apart late.
Howth KTB Fit 55/100
Howth is a fair performer who has shown some consistency without winning for a while. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won over previously though he has failed to place in two runs on good to soft. Trainer Tom Lacey has no previous runners at Chester while Rob Hornby maintains a solid 17% strike rate here from 122 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could be the one to set the strong gallop that the race shape suggests. Dropping in class is another positive on his side.
The rest of the field
St MawesKTB Fit 55/100
St Mawes is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has won twice at today's trip from four attempts yet drops back from a much longer 2m4½f last time and has never raced on good to soft ground. The yard holds an 8% strike rate from 25 runs at Chester while Billy Loughnane is 10% from 49 rides here. Usually held up, he drops in class.
Dino BellagioKTB Fit 51/100
Dino Bellagio is a modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career but has looked limited since. He has course experience in his favour having won here from just two runs and the yard and jockey both have solid records at Chester. However he is 0 from 7 on good to soft ground and steps up in trip today having last run over shorter. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could share the early lead.
CranachanKTB Fit 51/100
Cranachan is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at up to 1m4f this year. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Chester with respective strike rates of 18% and 15%.
Sea And SunKTB Fit 48/100
Sea And Sun has shown fair form in four starts this year with two placed efforts and looks capable of staying the longer trip as a progressive sort. The yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at Chester from 106 runs while Callum Shepherd has a 7% record from 45 rides here. He is placed on his only start on good to soft and drops in class.
Midnight RumbleKTB Fit 40/100
Midnight Rumble is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year without winning. He has twice run creditably at Chester and is proven competitive on good to soft ground, though he has yet to land a race at this trip. The trainer has had too few runners here to judge while the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from six rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Westerton. He ran respectably when fifth over course and distance on his latest start, has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground and steps back up in trip having been placed at this distance before. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Chester while the jockey is operating above expectations here. His hold-up style looks perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. Main dangers are Venezuelan, who brings consistent placed form and a strong trainer-jockey combination at the track, and Kuredu King, who is well suited by the ground and can also come from off the pace.
KTB Selection Westerton
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Howth and Dino Bellagio are the two confirmed front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has won over course and distance in the past?
Dino Bellagio won over this trip earlier in his career and has also won here from two runs at Chester.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in trip?
Cranachan steps up markedly in trip today having shown consistent placed form at up to 1m4f this year.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey record at Chester among the principals?
Venezuelan, with trainer Gary Hanmer at 13% strike rate (A/E 2.07) and jockey Jack Nicholls at 20% (A/E 2.26).
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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