4:20 Killarney
The 4:20 at Killarney is an Old Market Lane Traders Novice Steeplechase over 2m7f80y on good ground, featuring a small but select field of five. The KTB Fit Scores identify a clear trio of principals separated by only a handful of points at the top of the ratings, with the remainder some way behind. Overall the numbers point to a high-class contest where course knowledge, trip effectiveness and yard form at the venue will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and is expected to produce a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay. With three of the five runners usually held up and the other two settling in mid-division, the early fractions are likely to be modest. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint for home or whether the principals can produce their efforts at the right time in a race that may not truly test stamina.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Butch Cassidy KTB Selection70/100High-class performer who won here on his only previous visit to Killarney and has also scored at today's trip.
- 2Emily Love64/100High-class mare with a solid record on good ground and a win from three runs at this track.
- 3Uncle Pat63/100High-class performer with a solid recent sequence of placed efforts before a respectable return run.
- 4Battle Of Benburb57/100Fair performer who has placed twice in three runs at Killarney without winning.
- 5Yoradreamer55/100High-class performer from the Mullins yard who arrives in solid recent form and holds strong course connections through the stable.
The contenders
Butch Cassidy KTB Fit 70/100
Butch Cassidy is a high-class performer who won here on his only previous visit to Killarney and has also scored at today's trip. His recent form of 435P-1 includes a clear-cut success last time out. The yard posts a 17% strike rate at the track from 421 runs with an A/E of 1.01, while jockey Darragh O'Keeffe has a 16% strike rate at Killarney from 189 rides with an A/E of 1.1. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The only obvious negative is that he remains unproven on good ground.
Emily Love KTB Fit 64/100
Emily Love is a high-class mare with a solid record on good ground, recording four wins from eight starts and six places overall. She has won here from three runs at the track. Her form this year has been decent, shown by the figures 41-F13, though she drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge when previously tried at this distance. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a 13% strike rate at Killarney from 364 runs with an A/E of 0.79, while Jack Kennedy is stronger with a 20% strike rate from 132 rides and an A/E of 1.07. She is usually held up.
Uncle Pat KTB Fit 63/100
Uncle Pat is a high-class performer with a solid recent sequence of placed efforts before a respectable return run, reflected in his figures of U221-7. He drops back from beyond three miles today, having failed to win in his only previous try at this trip, though the shorter distance looks a fair question rather than a clear negative. Willie Mullins holds a 22% strike rate at Killarney from 590 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while jockey Daniel King is operating above expectations on track with a 12% strike rate from 66 rides and an A/E of 1.07. He typically settles in midfield and has one win from five starts on good ground with two places.
The rest of the field
Battle Of BenburbKTB Fit 57/100
Battle Of Benburb is a fair performer who has placed twice in three runs at Killarney without winning, recording fifth, third and third. Recent form is poor with four pulled-ups in his last five starts and he now steps up in trip having failed to trouble the judge at this distance before. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike-rate at the track from 18 runs while the jockey has no recorded rides here.
YoradreamerKTB Fit 55/100
Yoradreamer is a high-class performer from the Mullins yard who arrives in solid recent form shown by 1B-2P0 and holds strong course connections through the stable. The trainer strikes at 22% here from a huge sample while the jockey operates at 10% from 231 rides. He steps up in trip for the first time today with only placed form on good ground from six starts.
KTB verdict
Butch Cassidy stands out as the KTB Selection. He won here on his only previous visit to Killarney, has scored at today's trip, and produced a clear-cut success last time out, with the yard's strong 17% strike rate at the track adding further confidence. The only reservation is that he remains unproven on good ground. Emily Love and Uncle Pat are the main dangers, the former boasting a strong record on the surface and a win at the venue, the latter a high-class performer from a yard that excels at Killarney.
KTB Selection Butch Cassidy
This is the narrative read of the 4:20 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Killarney?
Butch Cassidy won here on his only previous visit, while Emily Love has also won here from three runs at the track.
How does the race's pace shape influence the principals?
The pace shape lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, yet the three principals are all held-up or mid-division runners.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Killarney in this race?
Willie Mullins has a 22% strike rate at Killarney from 590 runs, ahead of Henry De Bromhead's 17% from 421 runs.
What are the ground concerns for the top two in the KTB Fit ratings?
Butch Cassidy has no runs on good ground and remains unproven, while Emily Love has a strong record with four wins from eight starts on good.
Which runners are stepping up or dropping in trip for this contest?
Emily Love drops back in trip having failed to trouble the judge when previously tried at this distance, Uncle Pat drops back from beyond three miles, Battle Of Benburb steps up in trip, and Yoradreamer steps up in trip for the first time.
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