6:18 Windsor
This Class 4 handicap over 1m3f99y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together a compact field of seven where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 41. The principals are headed by Percival, who edges it on a solid recent record at this level, while several others bring placed form and course knowledge. The numbers point to a competitive race in which consistency, trip suitability and the trainer's local record will all matter.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Just An Hour is the clear front-runner and should take them along, with Cape Fear and Tai Hang Pegasus prominent from their low draws to apply pressure. This sets up a fair test in which those held up, such as Percival, Melek Alreeh and Morcar, will look to come from off the pace once the race opens up in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Percival KTB Selection56/100Percival is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 5-0634 that shows consistency at this level.
- 2Melek Alreeh55/100Fair performer who ran well to win a similar race at Newmarket in May before finishing second at Kempton last time.
- 3Tai Hang Pegasus51/100Fair performer who has shown enough in nine starts to suggest he can be competitive in this grade.
- 4Morcar50/100Fair performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs.
- 5Cape Fear49/100Cape Fear is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins and consistent placings.
- 6Raulin47/100Raulin is a fair performer who has been in decent form of late, winning a 1m4f handicap last time and finishing placed on two of his previous three starts.
- 7Just An Hour41/100Modest performer who has run creditably on his last four starts without winning.
The contenders
Percival KTB Fit 56/100
Percival arrives with a fair level of ability and a consistent recent record of 5-0634 that underlines his competitiveness at this level. He steps up in trip for the first time having last run over 1m2f, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The Dylan Cunha yard posts a 16% strike rate at Windsor from 38 runs while the jockey/trainer combination shows 3/51 with an A/E of 0.45. David Egan takes the ride on a horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late, and the absence of course form is offset by the high data confidence from his ratings and race history.
Melek Alreeh KTB Fit 55/100
Melek Alreeh is a fair performer who ran well to win a similar race at Newmarket in May before finishing second at Kempton last time. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched over 1m4f on his last two starts, though he has failed to place in two previous tries at this distance. The David Simcock yard has an 11% strike rate at Windsor from 227 runs and the trainer/jockey record stands at 0/12 with an A/E of 0.00. Rossa Ryan rides a horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late, with one win from six runs on good to firm and a sole sixth-place finish on his only previous visit to the track.
Tai Hang Pegasus KTB Fit 51/100
Tai Hang Pegasus is a fair performer who has shown enough in nine starts to suggest he can be competitive in this grade. He has won once and placed twice from three runs on good to firm so that ground is no issue, while the drop back from 1m4f to today's trip poses a fresh question. The Charlie Fellowes yard holds a 14% strike rate at Windsor from 91 runs and the trainer/jockey record is 15/77 with an A/E of 1.20. Paddy Bradley partners a horse who usually races handily, on or close to the lead, and who brings a recent form sequence of 476231.
Morcar KTB Fit 50/100
Morcar is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from 11 runs. He has solid form on good to firm ground with five wins from 17 starts and the Richard Hannon yard holds a 14% strike rate at Windsor from 802 runs. The trainer/jockey record with Pat Dobbs stands at 207/1782 with an A/E of 0.84. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Morcar steps up in trip today having failed to win in two previous tries at this distance and brings recent form figures of 056126.
The rest of the field
Cape FearKTB Fit 49/100
Cape Fear is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including two wins and consistent placings. He has already won at today's trip in his only attempt and has shown he handles good to firm ground, though he remains winless on that surface from four runs. The Andrew Balding yard posts a 15% strike rate at Windsor while he himself has placed here on his sole visit, and he usually races handily.
RaulinKTB Fit 47/100
Raulin is a fair performer who has been in decent form of late, winning a 1m4f handicap last time and finishing placed on two of his previous three starts. He has two wins from five runs on good to firm and now tries first-time headgear. The Gary & Josh Moore yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 77 runs at Windsor and he is usually held up.
Just An HourKTB Fit 41/100
Just An Hour is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last four starts without winning. He has won once from six runs at Windsor and handles good to firm ground, with two wins and three places from 11 attempts. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question, though he has been placed twice in six runs at this distance, and he tends to make the running.
KTB verdict
Percival is the KTB Selection. He brings a solid recent record of consistency at this level and the yard's healthy 16% strike rate at Windsor adds to the appeal even as he tackles a new trip. The race looks set up for those coming from off the pace once the front-runner and prominent runners expend their energy, which should suit his usual held-up style. Main dangers are Melek Alreeh, who drops back in trip after a good Kempton second, and Tai Hang Pegasus, who is proven on the ground and can race handily, while Morcar's course record cannot be ignored.
KTB Selection Percival
This is the narrative read of the 6:18 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time having last contested 1m2f?
Percival.
Who won at Newmarket in May before finishing second at Kempton last time?
Melek Alreeh.
Which runner has won twice at Windsor from 11 starts and brings five wins from 17 starts on good to firm?
Morcar.
What is the run-style of the front-runner in a genuinely-run pace shape?
Just An Hour tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which 3-year-old has already won at today's trip in his only attempt?
Cape Fear.
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