7:18 Windsor
A Class 6 Matchbook Loves Racing Handicap over 6f12y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together nine three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with relatively short careers behind them. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, underlining a competitive but largely unexciting affair where occasional promise rather than proven quality is the main currency. With the selection Venetian Romance heading the ratings on the back of a recent placing here, the race looks set to revolve around which of the more lightly exposed runners can translate past hints into a first handicap success.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence, as there is no obvious front-runner in the field. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their effort late, which should suit those able to be ridden close to the pace in a race that lacks early injection. Beach Partee and Magic Lady Mae are the only prominent racers, raising the possibility they could end up dictating a steady gallop that allows the closers to pounce late. The key question is whether the race will fall apart in the final furlong or if one of the hold-up brigade can time their run to perfection from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Venetian Romance KTB Selection54/100Modest performer who has shown occasional promise, most recently finishing second in a similar race at this track.
- 2Cape Toronada52/100Modest performer who has shown enough at this track to be competitive, finishing placed on two of three visits to Windsor.
- 3Koffee And Kale51/100Modest performer who has been placed twice over this course and trip without winning.
- 4Star Obsession48/100Modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing fourth on both his last two outings.
- 5Molly Mac47/100Modest performer who has shown her best this year with two wins in six-furlong handicaps on good to firm.
- 6Hellcat45/100Limited performer who has shown little in eight starts and looks up against it again from stall 1.
- 7Angel Summer44/100Limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed form and finished sixth of nine when last seen here over 5f.
- 8Beach Partee42/100Limited performer who has been busy this year and shown only modest form at best.
- 9Magic Lady Mae38/100Limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and now tries first-time headgear.
The contenders
Venetian Romance KTB Fit 54/100
Venetian Romance is a modest performer who has shown occasional promise, most recently finishing second in a similar race at this track. Dropping back to an untried 6f poses a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown, although he has been placed once from two starts on good to firm. The three-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late, though evidence for that run-style is limited. Trainer Michael Attwater has a 9% strike rate at Windsor from 192 runs, while Kieren Fox has an 8% strike rate at the track from 130 rides. The combination of a recent placing over course and distance and a KTB Fit score of 54/100 sees him rated the selection.
Cape Toronada KTB Fit 52/100
Cape Toronada is a modest performer who has shown enough at this track to be competitive, finishing placed on two of three visits to Windsor. Recent form is mixed but includes a win at this trip on good to firm ground, and he acts on today's conditions having scored once from four starts on the surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the three-year-old is drawn in stall 7. Trainer Tony Carroll has a modest 7% strike rate at Windsor from 755 runs, which is a negative, although Rossa Ryan brings a 16% strike rate at the track from 361 rides. With a KTB Fit score of 52/100 he is firmly in the mix.
Koffee And Kale KTB Fit 51/100
Koffee And Kale is a modest performer who has been placed twice over this course and trip without winning. He has shown enough on good to firm to suggest the ground is no problem, having been placed once from four starts on the surface, though the recent form of 275746 points to a lack of real progress. The three-year-old is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Trainer Michael Bell holds a solid 13% strike rate at Windsor from 567 runs and is joined by Hector Crouch who has a 14% strike rate at the track from 268 rides. Dropping in class with a KTB Fit score of 51/100 keeps him as a leading contender.
Star Obsession KTB Fit 48/100
Star Obsession is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing fourth on both his last two outings. He drops back from a mile to an untried 6f today while wearing first-time headgear, which asks a fresh question of him. The three-year-old is held up with medium confidence in that run-style and has no previous experience of good to firm ground. William Haggas has a 20% strike rate at Windsor from 458 runs and teams up with Tom Marquand who has a 15% strike rate at the track from 708 rides. A KTB Fit score of 48/100 and the class drop keep him in the picture.
The rest of the field
Molly MacKTB Fit 47/100
Molly Mac is a modest performer who has shown her best this year with two wins in six-furlong handicaps on good to firm. She has run three times at Windsor without placing and the yard has only two runs here so far, so the track does not appear to play to her strengths. Trip and ground look fine, though she remains only modestly exposed after 15 runs.
HellcatKTB Fit 45/100
Hellcat is a limited performer who has shown little in eight starts and looks up against it again from stall 1. Trainer continues in decent form at Windsor with a 23% strike rate but the horse itself has failed to place in five runs at this trip and has only one unplaced effort on good to firm. Course debut adds another unknown.
Angel SummerKTB Fit 44/100
Angel Summer is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed form and finished sixth of nine when last seen here over 5f. Steps up to 6f for the first time in headgear today with no strong signs that either change will spark major improvement. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Windsor from 13 runs while the jockey has a modest record at the track.
Beach ParteeKTB Fit 42/100
Beach Partee is a limited performer who has been busy this year and shown only modest form at best. Has run just once at Windsor and never won on good to firm ground, though he has placed once on it and won over today's trip earlier in his career. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
Magic Lady MaeKTB Fit 38/100
Magic Lady Mae is a limited performer who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts and now tries first-time headgear. Drops back to 6f having been well held over 7f last time and holds no strong form on good to firm ground from two previous attempts. Trainer has no recorded runners at Windsor.
KTB verdict
Venetian Romance is the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are separated by very little on the numbers. His most recent second in a similar event at this track gives him the clearest recent evidence of ability, and the lightly-raced profile offers scope for further improvement if the drop to 6f proves within his compass. Cape Toronada, Koffee And Kale and Star Obsession are the main dangers, each with placed form or course experience that could prove decisive in a muddling tactical affair. The race is likely to be decided in the final furlong once the held-up brigade are asked to quicken.
KTB Selection Venetian Romance
This is the narrative read of the 7:18 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has the highest trainer strike-rate at Windsor among the principals?
Star Obsession, with William Haggas holding a 20% strike rate at Windsor from 458 runs.
How many of the nine runners are usually held up according to their run-style?
Seven of the nine runners are described as held up.
Which horse has been placed twice over this course and trip?
Koffee And Kale.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Windsor for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Michael Attwater holds a 9% strike rate at Windsor from 192 runs.
How many wins has Cape Toronada recorded on good to firm ground?
One win from four starts on good to firm.
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