7:48 Windsor
This Class 6 handicap over the minimum 5f 21y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine modest performers where recent form and course experience will be key. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Darkened Edge heading the numbers on 58, followed closely by Just Jump on 53, Desdemona on 52 and Trafalger on 51. Overall the KTB assessment points to a race that could be decided by how the prominent runners handle what is expected to be a strong pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is strong and confidence in that view is high. Trafalger and Faustus both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the closing stages. That in turn would favour the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals, and the key question is whether any of the closers can pick up the pieces once the early speed has done its work.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Darkened Edge KTB Selection58/100Limited performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins from his last four starts.
- 2Just Jump53/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at Windsor.
- 3Desdemona52/100Modest performer who has won three times over this trip including on good to firm.
- 4Trafalger51/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start.
- 5Our Planet47/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a long break.
- 6Dragon God44/100Dragon God is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when finishing third over course and distance in June.
- 7Faustus43/100Faustus is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level all season without winning.
- 8The Bear Of Saints35/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form in six starts.
- 9Em Jay Kay34/100Em Jay Kay is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with recent figures of 189080.
The contenders
Darkened Edge KTB Fit 58/100
Darkened Edge is a limited performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins from his last four starts. He has run four times at Windsor without winning but has been placed once and the trainer has a solid 14% strike rate here from 79 runs. He goes well on good to firm with two wins and four places from nine starts at this trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. The combination of recent winning form, trainer's record at the track and his hold-up style makes him the KTB selection.
Just Jump KTB Fit 53/100
Just Jump is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Windsor. Dropping back to 5f is a positive as he has won at the trip before, though his last run was over 6f and recent form has been patchy. The yard's modest 7% strike rate from a huge sample at the track is a negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to unfold. He remains a contender on his best days and his course record gives him a clear advantage over several rivals.
Desdemona KTB Fit 52/100
Desdemona is a modest performer who has won three times over this trip including on good to firm. Recent form has been patchy with two placed efforts from her last six starts and she now makes her first visit to Windsor. Trainer Michael Attwater has a solid 9% strike rate here from 192 runs while Paddy Bradley is aboard. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence in that assessment, she should appreciate the strong pace that could collapse late. Her proven ability at the trip and on the surface keeps her firmly in the mix.
Trafalger KTB Fit 51/100
Trafalger is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start. He has been below that level on his last two outings though and the yard's record at Windsor offers little encouragement. Placed on good to firm and at this trip without winning either. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he is sure to be to the fore in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. His course placing gives him a foothold but recent form raises a question mark.
The rest of the field
Our PlanetKTB Fit 47/100
Our Planet is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year after a long break. He has won over this trip in the past but is 0-4 on good to firm and was only fourth on his one previous visit to Windsor. The trainer is still seeking a first winner here from 24 attempts while he typically settles in midfield.
Dragon GodKTB Fit 44/100
Dragon God is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when finishing third over course and distance in June. He has a win and four places from seven runs on good to firm, though dropping back to 5f today asks a fresh question after his last run over 6f. The yard's modest 7% strike rate from 755 runs at Windsor adds a note of caution and he is usually held up.
FaustusKTB Fit 43/100
Faustus is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level all season without winning. He has placed three times from seven runs at Windsor and holds a solid record on good to firm ground, including five wins at today's trip. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
The Bear Of SaintsKTB Fit 35/100
The Bear Of Saints is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in six starts. He has been placed once over this trip but failed to build on that when third of eight at this track on reappearance. First-time headgear is now tried while the yard's modest record at Windsor offers little encouragement and he is usually held up.
Em Jay KayKTB Fit 34/100
Em Jay Kay is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with recent figures of 189080. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip in the past though he has failed to place in four runs on good to firm ground. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 74 runs at Windsor and he is usually held up.
KTB verdict
Darkened Edge heads the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. A limited performer in decent recent form with two wins from his last four starts, he has shown enough at Windsor to be taken seriously and his hold-up style looks perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. The trainer's solid record at the track adds further encouragement on good to firm ground where he has performed well. Just Jump and Desdemona are the most obvious dangers given their ability at the trip, while Trafalger's prominent run-style could see him go well if the front-runners do not overdo it.
KTB Selection Darkened Edge
This is the narrative read of the 7:48 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Darkened Edge is usually held up and produces his effort late, which should be favoured if the strong pace collapses.
How many wins has Darkened Edge recorded on good to firm ground?
Two wins from nine starts on good to firm.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Windsor for the yard of Just Jump?
7% strike rate at Windsor from 755 runs.
Has Desdemona ever run at Windsor before?
No course form on record as she makes her first visit to Windsor.
What headgear is The Bear Of Saints wearing for the first time?
First-time headgear.
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