6:00 Ballinrobe
This 2m6f61y Paddy Smyth Memorial Mares Maiden Hurdle at Ballinrobe on good ground brings together a field of 13 lightly raced or modest performers where information is limited. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by I Dont Really Care on 62, with Cool Native close behind on 59, reflecting the general lack of depth and the number of runners stepping up markedly in trip. With the pace shape indicating no obvious leader, the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove important.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium that it will develop into a steadily-run, tactical contest. Most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, which could leave the race won or lost from off the pace if the tempo remains modest. Being handy may pay in these conditions, posing the key question of whether any runner can quicken effectively off a steady gallop over this new trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1I Dont Really Care KTB Selection62/100Lightly raced and with only two runs in the last year this 5-year-old brings very limited information to the table.
- 2Cool Native59/100Smart performer who has shown consistent placed form when completing, including a solid third at this track on his most recent start.
- 3Amina54/100Amina has shown some ability on her three completed starts, finishing second on debut and third last time out, though she has been off the track for 25 days.
- 4Doesthatmakesense49/100Doesthatmakesense has shown very little so far with three poor runs and no placed efforts.
- 5Daphne Blake47/100Daphne Blake is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 6Ronnie's Rascal45/100Ronnie's Rascal has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing third and sixth on hurdles debut before a fair fourth last time.
- 7Castle Garden44/100Castle Garden is a debutant with only a single piece of placed form to his name and very little else to go on.
- 8Free A Minute44/100Free A Minute has a patchy recent record of P-P400 and only three runs in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence.
- 9Labondance44/100Has shown ability in bumpers and over hurdles but has failed to build on early promise and was falling in the betting when falling in a maiden hurdle last time.
- 10Goodgollymissholly44/100Goodgollymissholly has shown steady improvement since a poor hurdles debut, winning a bumper and finishing a solid second in a maiden hurdle last time.
- 11Run For Power43/100Run For Power has shown only modest form in three starts to date, finishing sixth on his most recent outing over 2m1f.
- 12Gunner Girl42/100Lightly raced filly with just two runs this year and a modest 70 in her latest effort.
- 13Clash Gold38/100Useful performer who showed his best effort yet when runner-up last time out.
The contenders
I Dont Really Care KTB Fit 62/100
I Dont Really Care is lightly raced with only two runs in the last year and brings very limited information overall. The five-year-old has form figures of 0-4 and steps up markedly in trip, an unknown that could suit or expose him. Trainer Ray Hackett has a 20% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 20 runs with an A/E of 1.78, while the jockey combination shows 3/13 (23%) with an A/E of 1.90 and positive LSP of +£16.00. Daniel King has a 14% strike rate at the track from 77 rides with an A/E of 1.21. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, though evidence is limited and confidence low. He has had one run on good ground without placing and has no course form.
Cool Native KTB Fit 59/100
Cool Native is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form when completing, including a solid third at this track on his most recent start. The six-year-old has form figures of /3U4-3 and steps up in trip today, which asks a fresh question of him. Gordon Elliott has a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 463 runs with an A/E of 0.81, and Jack Kennedy is aboard with an 18% strike rate at the venue from 122 rides and an A/E of 1. The trainer and jockey combination overall reads 648/3420 (19%) with an A/E of 0.88. He is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. He has been placed once from two runs on good ground and has no course form.
Amina KTB Fit 54/100
Amina has shown some ability on her three completed starts, finishing second on debut and third last time out, though she has been off the track for 25 days. The six-year-old has form figures of 2/25-3 and steps up in trip today as a fresh question having not tried this far before. Trainer John C McConnell operates at an 8% strike rate from 136 runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.83, while Alex Harvey has an 11% strike rate at the track from 35 rides with an A/E of 1.22. The trainer and jockey record stands at 37/381 (10%) with an A/E of 0.86. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with medium confidence. She has been placed on all three starts on good ground and has no course form.
Doesthatmakesense KTB Fit 49/100
Doesthatmakesense has shown very little so far with three poor runs and no placed efforts from form figures of 0P0. The five-year-old steps up in trip, an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer E Seymour has no recorded runners at Ballinrobe and an overall 0% strike rate from 12 runs, while Thomas O'Connor has no record at the track. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late, though evidence is limited and confidence low. He has had one run on good ground without placing and has no course form.
Daphne Blake KTB Fit 47/100
Daphne Blake is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The six-year-old brings only pedigree and sales background as clues, with data confidence low so any conclusions remain tentative. Trainer Peter Maher has a 0% strike rate from 16 runs at Ballinrobe, while jockey John Shinnick has a 13% strike rate at the track from 39 rides with an A/E of 1.37. She has no going data available and no course win on record.
The rest of the field
Ronnie's RascalKTB Fit 45/100
Ronnie's Rascal has shown mixed form in three starts, finishing third and sixth on hurdles debut before a fair fourth last time from figures of 36-4. He now steps up markedly in trip as a lightly-raced 4-year-old and tries first-time headgear. Willie Mullins has a 24% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 401 runs with an A/E of 0.82, though data confidence remains low given the small sample. Brian Hayes has a 6% strike rate at the track from 104 rides with an A/E of 0.57. He has been placed twice from two runs on good ground and is usually held up.
Castle GardenKTB Fit 44/100
Castle Garden is a debutant with only a single piece of placed form to his name from a third and very little else to go on. The four-year-old has pedigree and sales background as the main clues but data confidence remains low so any conclusions are tentative. Donal Hassett has a 10% strike rate from 129 runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.89, while J J Slevin is yet to record a winner from his 141 rides at the track. He has no going data available and no course win on record.
Free A MinuteKTB Fit 44/100
Free A Minute has a patchy recent record of P-P400 and only three runs in the last year so the form is hard to weigh up with any confidence. The seven-year-old steps up from 2m2f to 2m6f, an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer Charlie Keegan is 0-9 at Ballinrobe while the 7 lb claimer Conor Smithers has yet to make an impact at the track from 16 rides with an A/E of 1.06. He typically settles in midfield and has had one run on good ground without placing.
LabondanceKTB Fit 44/100
Labondance has shown ability in bumpers and over hurdles but has failed to build on early promise and was falling in the betting when falling in a maiden hurdle last time from figures of 2583F-. The five-year-old steps up in trip today having already been tried over this distance without success and now tries first-time headgear. Emmet Mullins has an 18% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.64, while Donagh Meyler has a 9% strike rate from 120 rides with an A/E of 0.79. She has no runs on good ground.
GoodgollymisshollyKTB Fit 44/100
Goodgollymissholly has shown steady improvement since a poor hurdles debut, winning a bumper and finishing a solid second in a maiden hurdle last time from figures of P-217. The five-year-old steps up in trip, an unknown but a logical move on pedigree and the way she stayed on at shorter. Gordon Elliott has a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 463 runs with an A/E of 0.81, while Jordan Gainford is riding her for the first time. She has one win from four runs on good ground with two places and is usually held up.
Run For PowerKTB Fit 43/100
Run For Power has shown only modest form in three starts to date, finishing sixth on his most recent outing over 2m1f from figures of 04-6. The six-year-old steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 9% strike rate from 102 runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.56, while Philip Byrnes has a 15% strike rate at the track from 48 rides with an A/E of 1. He is usually held up and has had one run on good ground without placing.
Gunner GirlKTB Fit 42/100
Gunner Girl is a lightly raced filly with just two runs this year and a modest 70 in her latest effort from figures of 70. The four-year-old steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer S G Carey has a 15% strike rate from 13 runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.66, while Conor Stone-Walsh has a 3% strike rate from 30 rides with an A/E of 0.52. She has had one run on good ground without placing and is usually held up.
Clash GoldKTB Fit 38/100
Clash Gold is a useful performer who showed his best effort yet when runner-up last time out from figures of 7005-2. The seven-year-old steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer Francis J Flood has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0, while Mike O'Connor has a 3% strike rate from 34 rides with an A/E of 0.29. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and is usually held up with high confidence in that assessment.
KTB verdict
The race is short on solid form and long on unknowns, particularly with so many stepping up markedly in trip in a steadily-run affair. I Dont Really Care is the KTB Selection on the back of his trainer's solid 20% strike rate at Ballinrobe and the fact that the limited information he brings may prove sufficient in this modest maiden. Cool Native and Amina look the main dangers, both having shown placed form and with established trainers and jockeys in the mix, while the remainder largely bring modest or patchy records that leave them with plenty to find.
KTB Selection I Dont Really Care
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse steps up markedly in trip as a lightly raced 4-year-old and tries headgear for the first time?
Ronnie's Rascal
What is the trainer strike rate at Ballinrobe for the yard of the KTB Selection?
20% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 20 runs with an A/E of 1.78
Which runner has shown steady improvement with a bumper win and a solid second in a maiden hurdle last time?
Goodgollymissholly
How many placed efforts on good ground does Amina have?
Placed 3 of 3 on good
Which horse is a debutant with no racecourse experience and what is its trainer's Ballinrobe strike rate?
Daphne Blake; trainer Peter Maher has a 0% strike rate from 16 runs at Ballinrobe
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