7:00 Ballinrobe
The 7:00 at Ballinrobe is a Boyle Sports-sponsored steeplechase over 2m1f48y on good ground, featuring a compact but competitive field of six runners. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace, the KTB numbers point to a tactical, steadily-run contest where being handy from off the pace could prove decisive. Jazzy Matty tops the KTB Fit ratings on 67, ahead of Addragoole on 56, with Bowensonfire and Runcok completing the principals, while the remainder are rated modestly lower.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any natural front-runner, making this a steadily-run, tactical affair in which positioning will be key. With five of the six runners usually held up and producing their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the home turn. The key question is whether any horse can get into a workable position early enough without using up too much energy, as being handy in a slowly-run race is expected to pay dividends here.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jazzy Matty KTB Selection67/100High-class performer on his day with a solid record on good ground that includes two wins from eight starts.
- 2Addragoole56/100High-class performer with a solid ratings profile and proven ability at this trip where he has won twice from seven attempts.
- 3Bowensonfire52/100Has shown some ability on his last three starts and the placed efforts at this trip give him a solid base.
- 4Runcok49/100High-class performer on his day but has been well held in both runs at this track and is 0-5 on good ground.
- 5Bunting47/100Bunting has been largely out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts and only one placed run from his last nine starts.
- 6Ma Jacks Hill44/100High-class performer with strong ratings and a solid recent record that includes two wins.
The contenders
Jazzy Matty KTB Fit 67/100
Jazzy Matty is a high-class performer on his day and boasts a solid record on good ground that includes two wins from eight starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles and has only tried this distance once before without success. The Cian Collins yard operates at a 9% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 32 runs, while this is the horse's first appearance at the track. Danny Gilligan takes the ride with a 17% strike rate at the venue from 64 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Jazzy Matty will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a steadily-run affair. He carries the KTB Selection tag on a Fit rating of 67.
Addragoole KTB Fit 56/100
Addragoole is a high-class performer with a solid ratings profile and has proven ability at this trip where he has won twice from seven attempts. He drops back from 2m6f while connections have a poor recent record here and the horse himself is 0-3 on good ground. This will be his first run at Ballinrobe. Gavin Cromwell's 7% strike rate at the track from 218 runs is modest, though Keith Donoghue is a reliable booking with a 10% strike rate from 141 rides at the venue. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race. Rated 56 on KTB Fit, he is the second highest in the field.
Bowensonfire KTB Fit 52/100
Bowensonfire has shown some ability on his last three starts and the placed efforts at this trip give him a solid base. He handles good ground with one win from seven starts and three places. Gordon Elliott has a respectable 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from a large sample of 463 runs, while Jack Kennedy is even stronger with an 18% strike rate from 122 rides. Still looks only fair at best and remains vulnerable to anything improving. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be coming from off the pace in a race that lacks a leader. His KTB Fit rating is 52.
Runcok KTB Fit 49/100
Runcok is a high-class performer on his day but has been well held in both runs at this track and is 0-5 on good ground. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched over 2m2f last time, though he has failed to place in his only previous attempt at this distance. John C McConnell operates at an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 136 runs, while J J Slevin has a 7% strike rate from 141 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 25% strike rate from a small sample of eight rides. Usually held up with medium confidence, he will need to find a bit more in a steadily-run race. His KTB Fit score is 49.
The rest of the field
BuntingKTB Fit 47/100
Bunting has been largely out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts and only one placed run from his last nine starts. He drops back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance previously while the yard's solid 24% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 401 runs offers some encouragement. His record on good ground is limited to a single run so that remains an unknown. Usually held up with high confidence, he is rated 47 on KTB Fit.
Ma Jacks HillKTB Fit 44/100
Ma Jacks Hill is a high-class performer with strong ratings and a solid recent record that includes two wins. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m4f so this distance is an unknown. Gordon Elliott has a 14% strike rate from 463 runs at the track while the jockey has only three rides here which is too small a sample to judge. Usually held up with high confidence, he is the lowest rated on KTB Fit at 44.
KTB verdict
Jazzy Matty is the KTB Selection and sets a strong standard as a high-class performer on his day with a solid record on good ground. Dropping back in trip looks a sensible move and his ability to produce a late effort should suit the steadily-run shape of the race. Addragoole is the most obvious danger given his proven record at the trip and solid ratings profile, while Bowensonfire brings recent placed form and the powerful Elliott-Kennedy combination. Runcok cannot be entirely dismissed on his best days but has questions to answer at this track and trip.
KTB Selection Jazzy Matty
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection?
Jazzy Matty
How many runners have course form at Ballinrobe?
Only Runcok has course form, with two runs resulting in 6th and 4th.
What is the predicted pace shape of the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Ballinrobe?
W P Mullins with a 24% strike rate from 401 runs for Bunting.
How many of the runners are usually held up?
All six runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies