7:30 Ballinrobe
The 7:30 Ballinrobe Corrib Oil Beginners Steeplechase brings together a field of nine over 2m7f65y on good ground. With the KTB Fit Scores headed by Mickie Angel on 65, followed closely by Donnie Devito on 62, Kevin's Pride on 58 and Fou De Toi on 51, the principals all carry strong ability ratings yet each faces a fresh test either in trip or conditions. The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, suggesting a race that may lack a clear early leader.
How the race shapes up
Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late. Jeroboam Machin is the only horse with any inclination to go forward, though the evidence for him making the running is limited and the overall pace read remains tentative. This points to a race that could be run at a steady gallop early on, with the key question being whether those coming from off the pace can pick up sufficiently in the straight on what is likely to be a stamina test at this trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mickie Angel KTB Selection65/100Mickie Angel arrives in strong form with three consecutive placed efforts and carries a high-class rating backed by solid race history.
- 2Donnie Devito62/100High-class performer with solid recent form including two placed efforts this season.
- 3Kevin's Pride58/100Kevin's Pride is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 4Fou De Toi51/100Fou De Toi showed fair form when second over 3m at this track on return and ran to a similar level when seventh at Killarney last time.
- 5Jeroboam Machin47/100Recent form of 432 suggests he is competitive at this level and he showed some encouragement when fourth over 2m6f last time.
- 6Jolie Jewel47/100Smart performer who has run well here on four of her five visits to Ballinrobe without winning.
- 7Rusty Harkness47/100Rusty Harkness arrives in solid form with two wins from his last four starts and looks to handle good ground.
- 8Maverick Mack46/100Maverick Mack has shown some ability but his recent form of 13U-BP includes two pulled-ups and a brought-down run, suggesting he can be unreliable.
- 9Slurricane44/100Slurricane has shown little spark this year with a string of modest efforts and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question.
The contenders
Mickie Angel KTB Fit 65/100
Mickie Angel is the KTB Selection. He arrives in strong form having been placed on all three starts this season, most recently finishing third, and carries a high-class rating backed by a solid race history. The Denis Gerard Hogan yard posts an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 206 runs with an A/E of 0.98, though the trainer-jockey combination shows 4/42 (10%) with an A/E of 0.93 and -£3.25 LSP. He is held up and usually produces his effort late, a run-style he has employed with high confidence. Placed on all three attempts on good ground without winning, he now steps up in trip for the first time, something that looks sure to suit given his profile.
Donnie Devito KTB Fit 62/100
Donnie Devito is a high-class performer who brings solid recent form, including two placed efforts this season from figures of 323-37. The Ross O'Sullivan yard has a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 63 runs with an A/E of 0.75, while the trainer-jockey partnership stands at 12/84 (14%) with an A/E of 0.96 and -£18.24 LSP. Danny Gilligan has a 17% strike rate at the track from 64 rides with an A/E of 1.03. He goes well on good ground with two wins and four places from eight starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he now steps up in trip for the first time, which poses a fresh question of his stamina.
Kevin's Pride KTB Fit 58/100
Kevin's Pride is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and race history, with recent efforts reading /14-54. The John C McConnell yard has an 8% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 136 runs with an A/E of 0.83, while the trainer-jockey record is 2/8 (25%). J J Slevin has a 7% strike rate at the track from 141 rides with an A/E of 0.62. He has won twice from five starts on good ground with three places and is usually held up, producing his effort late with high confidence. Now dropping back in trip to a distance he has never tried, he represents an interesting each-way alternative.
Fou De Toi KTB Fit 51/100
Fou De Toi showed fair form when second over three miles at this track on his return and ran to a similar level when seventh at Killarney last time out from figures of 43P-27. The W P Mullins yard boasts a 24% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 401 runs with an A/E of 0.82, though the trainer-jockey record stands at 2/9 (22%). Daniel King has a 14% strike rate at the track from 77 rides with an A/E of 1.21. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning. Now dropping back in trip to a distance he has never tried, this asks a fresh question.
The rest of the field
Jeroboam MachinKTB Fit 47/100
Jeroboam Machin has recent form of /8-432 that suggests he is competitive at this level, showing some encouragement when fourth over 2m6f last time. He tends to make the running or race prominently though with limited evidence and low confidence, and now steps up to 2m7f which asks a fresh question. The Emmet Mullins yard has an 18% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 33 runs with an A/E of 0.64.
Jolie JewelKTB Fit 47/100
Jolie Jewel is a smart performer who has run well here on four of her five visits to Ballinrobe, finishing placed on each of those occasions without winning. She steps up in trip today having last run over 2m2f, and her sole previous attempt at this distance brought no joy. The Brian M McMahon yard has an 8% strike rate at the track from 53 runs with an A/E of 0.82.
Rusty HarknessKTB Fit 47/100
Rusty Harkness arrives in solid form with two wins from his last four starts from figures of 325-21 and looks to handle good ground. He drops back from three miles having already placed at today's trip, though without winning. The Henry De Bromhead yard has an 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 145 runs with an A/E of 0.59.
Maverick MackKTB Fit 46/100
Maverick Mack has shown some ability but his recent form of 13U-BP includes two pulled-ups and a brought-down run, suggesting he can be unreliable. He has only one run at this trip and one at the track, both without placing. The Gordon Elliott yard has a 14% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 463 runs with an A/E of 0.81.
SlurricaneKTB Fit 44/100
Slurricane has shown little spark this year with a string of modest efforts from figures of 7309-0 and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question. He is competitive on good ground without winning and this first run at Ballinrobe adds another unknown for a horse with plenty of racing already. The Ross O'Sullivan yard has a 10% strike rate here from 63 runs with an A/E of 0.75.
KTB verdict
Mickie Angel is the KTB Selection. He comes into the race in strong form with three consecutive placed efforts, carries a high-class rating, and is backed by solid race history, while the yard has a respectable record at Ballinrobe. The step up in trip looks likely to play to his strengths given the way he produces his effort late off a held-up run-style. His main dangers are Donnie Devito, who brings high-class form and goes well on good ground, and Kevin's Pride, a smart performer who drops back in trip, with Fou De Toi from the powerful Mullins yard also capable of figuring if the drop back in distance suits.
KTB Selection Mickie Angel
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time and has been placed on all three starts this season?
Mickie Angel
How many wins has Donnie Devito recorded from his eight starts on good ground?
Two
What is W P Mullins's strike rate at Ballinrobe from 401 runs?
24%
Which runner is the only one noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace?
Jeroboam Machin
How many times has Jolie Jewel been placed from her five visits to Ballinrobe?
Four
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