5:40 Stratford
This Class 5 novices' limited handicap hurdle at Stratford over 2m6f7y on good to firm ground features a field of eight where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 37. The principals are led by Brionywells on 56, closely followed by Bells Of Ufford on 54, French Diablo on 51 and Delgany Second Now on 50. With the pace shape indicating a lack of an obvious leader and a steadily-run, tactical affair in prospect, being handy could prove advantageous in what looks a race where conditions and trip will pose fresh questions to several runners.
How the race shapes up
No horse appears keen to take the lead, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which those positioned handy should be favoured. Most of the field, including all four principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether the leaders can set a pace slow enough to allow the closers to come through effectively or whether the steady gallop will play into the hands of those able to race more prominently.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Brionywells KTB Selection56/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts.
- 2Bells Of Ufford54/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts this spring.
- 3French Diablo51/100French Diablo is a fair 4-year-old who has already shown his liking for Stratford by winning here from two starts.
- 4Delgany Second Now50/100Delgany Second Now is a fair four-year-old who has shown steady but unspectacular form in four starts, finishing no better than seventh.
- 5Mc'flo47/100Mc'flo is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year, finishing pulled up on his latest start after a string of modest efforts.
- 6Captain Connor44/100Captain Connor has shown only modest form in six runs and looks fairly exposed after a string of uncompetitive efforts.
- 7Pink Walls37/100Pink Walls is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year with a pulled-up effort and two modest placed runs from his last three starts.
- 8Kotgar37/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track with a third and a fifth from two runs.
The contenders
Brionywells KTB Fit 56/100
Brionywells is a useful performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while he remains completely unproven on good to firm ground. The David Killahena and Graeme McPherson yard hold a 13% strike rate at Stratford from 31 runs with an A/E of 0.91. Nick Slatter takes the ride; the trainer and jockey combination show a 24/145 (17%) record with an A/E of 1.32 and +£48.34 LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be interesting in a race that lacks an obvious leader.
Bells Of Ufford KTB Fit 54/100
Bells Of Ufford is a useful performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts this spring. He steps up in trip today having never raced beyond 2m4f, so this is a fresh question, and he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Tim Vaughan has a 15% strike rate at Stratford with an A/E of 0.99 from 300 runs, though the trainer and jockey record stands at 6/97 (6%) with an A/E of 0.69 and -£72.58 LSP. David Noonan is in the saddle and the pair will look to make the most of his held-up run style in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair.
French Diablo KTB Fit 51/100
French Diablo is a fair 4-year-old who has already shown his liking for Stratford by winning here from two starts. He has also won on good to firm ground and at this trip, so the conditions look suitable, and his recent form includes a clear-cut success last time. The yard's solid 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.42 from 17 runs adds confidence, while David Bass has a 13% strike rate at Stratford from 175 rides with an A/E of 0.8. Usually held up, he is well placed to take advantage of the lack of an obvious leader in a tactical race.
Delgany Second Now KTB Fit 50/100
Delgany Second Now is a fair four-year-old who has shown steady but unspectacular form in four starts, finishing no better than seventh. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him and he remains unproven on good to firm ground. Dropping in class is a positive, and the powerful Dan Skelton team hold a 22% strike rate at Stratford from 365 runs with an A/E of 0.88. Harry Skelton takes the mount with the trainer and jockey combination showing a 1386/6289 (22%) record and an A/E of 0.90. Usually held up, he will be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
The rest of the field
Mc'floKTB Fit 47/100
Mc'flo is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year, finishing pulled up on his latest start after a string of modest efforts. He has already tried this trip without success and showed only fair form when fourth on his one run here at Stratford, with the yard holding a 17% strike rate at the track from six runs.
Captain ConnorKTB Fit 44/100
Captain Connor has shown only modest form in six runs and looks fairly exposed after a string of uncompetitive efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of him and the trainer has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Stratford.
Pink WallsKTB Fit 37/100
Pink Walls is a modest performer who has shown little spark this year with a pulled-up effort and two modest placed runs from his last three starts. He has been well beaten in three runs at Stratford and failed to trouble the judge on his only previous try on good to firm ground, with the trip another unknown.
KotgarKTB Fit 37/100
Kotgar is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track with a third and a fifth from two runs. He steps up in trip today to 2m6f for the first time and that distance is an unknown, while the trainer is 0-7 at Stratford and the horse is 0-2 on good to firm ground.
KTB verdict
Brionywells is the KTB Selection. A useful performer in decent form after winning two of his last three starts, he holds the highest Fit score in a race where the principals are closely matched. The drop in trip and lack of experience on good to firm ground are the main queries, yet his held-up style should suit the expected steady pace. French Diablo appeals strongly as a course winner who has already proven himself on good to firm and at the trip, while Bells Of Ufford and Delgany Second Now are the other main dangers in a tactical affair.
KTB Selection Brionywells
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Stratford?
French Diablo has won here from two starts.
Who holds the highest strike rate at Stratford among the trainers of the principals?
Dan Skelton holds a 22% strike rate at Stratford from 365 runs.
How many of the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Brionywells, Bells Of Ufford, Delgany Second Now and Captain Connor have no runs on good to firm.
Which runner is dropping in class?
Delgany Second Now is dropping in class.
What is the expected pace shape of the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies