4:15 Catterick
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Catterick features a field of ten with a strong pace likely on good ground. The KTB Fit scores range from 68 down to 45, highlighting a competitive but graded contest where recent form, course aptitude and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key. Angel Numbers heads the KTB ratings as the selection while several others enter in reasonable nick or with track experience.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace anticipated and at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up, the race is expected to be run at a solid clip that could leave the leaders vulnerable late on. Secret Mistral, Canon's House and Our Absent Friends are all inclined to go forward, while Canaria Queen likes to race prominently, setting up a test of stamina in the closing stages. This shape should play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Angel Numbers and Fidelius, who can pounce when the pace collapses.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Angel Numbers KTB Selection68/100Angel Numbers is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins in the last four starts.
- 2Fidelius62/100Fair performer who has won six times at this trip from 29 starts and arrives in reasonable form having shown a mix of placed efforts and respectable runs this y…
- 3Secret Mistral60/100Secret Mistral is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after winning two of his last three starts.
- 4Canon's House55/100Canon's House is a fair performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning.
- 5Our Absent Friends54/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Catterick.
- 6Marching Mac54/100Fair performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning a similar race last time out.
- 7Novamay53/100Novamay is a fair performer who has run well at Catterick before, finishing second on her only visit.
- 8Call Margot53/100Fair performer who has won over this trip but has been below form on her last three starts after a promising spell earlier in the season.
- 9Vince L'Amour49/100Modest performer who has won once from four runs at Catterick and also has four wins at this trip on his record.
- 10Canaria Queen45/100Modest performer with a solid record over this trip, where she has won eight times from 31 starts.
The contenders
Angel Numbers KTB Fit 68/100
Angel Numbers is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins in the last four starts. It has won three times at this trip from 16 starts and shows two wins plus two places from six runs on good ground. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate at Catterick from 487 runs while the horse makes its first visit to the track today. Usually held up and producing its effort late, this 3-year-old is well suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse in the final furlong. Stepping up in class today, the combination of its progressive profile, effective run-style and the 5lb claimer Jake Dickson's 25% strike rate at the track from only eight rides makes it the one to beat.
Fidelius KTB Fit 62/100
Fidelius is a fair performer who has won six times at this trip from 29 starts and arrives in reasonable form having shown a mix of placed efforts and respectable runs this year. He is competitive on good ground having placed once from six attempts but has never been to Catterick before. Trainer Nigel Tinkler has a 12% strike rate from 330 runs here while 3lb claimer Alex Jary is yet to record a winner from his handful of Catterick rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, this 5-year-old should be ideally placed if the strong pace materialises as expected. Dropping in class, he remains a serious player on his best efforts.
Secret Mistral KTB Fit 60/100
Secret Mistral is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after winning two of his last three starts. He has a respectable record on good ground and has won six times at this trip from 33 attempts. The yard holds a 10% strike rate at Catterick from 48 runs while this is the horse's first visit to the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he is sure to set a strong gallop in a race where the pace is expected to be on the high side. With four wins from 16 starts on good ground and 11 places, he is likely to be in the vanguard until late.
Canon's House KTB Fit 55/100
Canon's House is a fair performer who has shown bits of form this year without winning. He has won three times at this trip and handles good ground, with two successes from eight starts on it. The yard's modest 5% strike-rate at Catterick from a big sample is a negative. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be up with the strong pace that is forecast and could pay the price for his exertions late on. Dropping in class today, his recent efforts suggest he remains competitive at this level when things fall his way.
Our Absent Friends KTB Fit 54/100
Our Absent Friends is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of five starts at Catterick. Recent form is mixed but includes two wins from his last four runs and he has won at this trip. Trainer Tristan Davidson has a 15% strike rate from 72 runs at the track while Jason Hart is aboard. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be involved in the expected strong gallop and his course wins give him a clear advantage over several rivals. Stepping up in class, his Catterick record of two from five remains the strongest in the field.
The rest of the field
Marching MacKTB Fit 54/100
Marching Mac is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best side when winning a similar race last time out. He has a solid record on good ground and has won seven times over this trip, though the yard's poor record at Catterick is a concern.
NovamayKTB Fit 53/100
Novamay is a fair performer who has run well at Catterick before, finishing second on her only visit. She has a solid record on good ground with three wins and five places from eight runs, though she drops back to 5f today having last run over 6f and remains winless at the shorter trip from five attempts.
Call MargotKTB Fit 53/100
Call Margot is a fair performer who has won over this trip but has been below form on her last three starts after a promising spell earlier in the season. She acts on good ground though is still winless on it from five attempts and this is her first visit to Catterick.
Vince L'AmourKTB Fit 49/100
Vince L'Amour is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at Catterick and also has four wins at this trip on his record. Recent form has been patchy with a best of second in a 6f handicap here last month but he now drops back to 5f.
Canaria QueenKTB Fit 45/100
Canaria Queen is a modest performer with a solid record over this trip, where she has won eight times from 31 starts. She has been placed three times from six runs at Catterick without winning, and her recent form of 155282 shows she remains competitive at this level.
KTB verdict
Angel Numbers is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard on its progressive 3-year-old profile, two recent wins and ideal hold-up style in a race with a strong pace likely to collapse. The selection's ability to produce its effort late should be perfectly suited by the shape while its record on good ground adds further strength to the case. Main dangers are Fidelius, who is also well suited by the pace set-up and drops in class, and Secret Mistral, who is in solid form and will ensure the race is truly run up front. Our Absent Friends cannot be dismissed either given his strong Catterick record of two wins from five starts.
KTB Selection Angel Numbers
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Angel Numbers and Fidelius, both usually held up and producing their effort late with high confidence, should be favoured if the pace collapses as anticipated.
Which runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Secret Mistral, Canon's House and Our Absent Friends all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Who has the strongest course record at Catterick?
Our Absent Friends has won two of five starts at the track, while Vince L'Amour has won once from four and Canaria Queen has been placed three times from six without winning.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Catterick in this field?
Tristan Davidson has a 15% strike rate from 72 runs at the track.
Which horse is dropping back to 5f having last run over further?
Novamay drops back to 5f today having last run over 6f and remains winless at the shorter trip from five attempts.
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