4:45 Newbury
This Class 4 Newbury maiden for two-year-olds, run over 6½f on good to firm ground, features a field of ten with limited established form and several interesting debutants. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched across the principals, reflecting the open nature of the contest and the low confidence in the overall pace shape. Chevere heads the KTB figures as the selection, with the top five all rated between 50 and 55.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated unclear and low confidence owing to insufficient run-style evidence, it is difficult to predict how the race will unfold. Crusherman is the only horse with any indication of prominent racing, though that is based on limited evidence from his debut. The key question is whether any of the newcomers can impose themselves early or if the race will develop into a more even, tactical affair where stamina for the extra furlong could prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Chevere KTB Selection55/100Chevere is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 21% strike rate at Newbury.
- 2Velma Dinkley53/100Velma Dinkley has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth then last.
- 3Perfect Strike51/100Perfect Strike showed little on debut when finishing seventh over 6f.
- 4Sol Dorado51/100Sol Dorado is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 13% strike-rate at Newbury.
- 5Solar Swing50/100Solar Swing is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 16% strike rate at Newbury from 64 runs.
- 6Kicking Bear49/100Kicking Bear is a debutant so the form picture is limited to pedigree and sales background.
- 7Yabreen48/100Yabreen is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a steady 9% strike-rate at Newbury.
- 8Moofeed48/100Archie Watson has a solid 10% strike-rate at Newbury from a big sample and this is a well-bred newcomer who cost plenty at the sales.
- 9Crusherman46/100Crusherman showed only modest pace on debut over 5f here and was well held in fifth.
- 10Flick Of An Eye44/100Flick Of An Eye is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and the Crisford stable.
The contenders
Chevere KTB Fit 55/100
Chevere is a newcomer whose chance rests entirely on pedigree and sales background, as he has no racecourse form to evaluate. The Owen Burrows yard operates at a 21% strike rate at Newbury with an A/E of 1.11 from 100 runs, while Callum Rodriguez posts a 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.4 from 26 rides. Both trainer and jockey therefore hold above-average records here, and their combination is further supported by a 20/71 (28%) record together with an A/E of 1.26. By Havana Grey, whose overall win rate is 13% from 4419 runners, Chevere is drawn in stall 7 and represents the clearest KTB pick in a race short on hard data.
Velma Dinkley KTB Fit 53/100
Velma Dinkley has shown little in two starts, finishing ninth then last. She now steps up in class and from 5½f to today's 6½f trip, which remains an unknown, while she is unproven on good to firm ground. The small sample of form makes her ability hard to gauge with any confidence. Trainer Faye Bramley nevertheless holds a solid 20% strike rate at Newbury from 20 runs with an A/E of 1.69, though jockey Oliver Carmichael is still seeking his first winner at the track from six rides. Overall the filly rates second on KTB Fit at 53.
Perfect Strike KTB Fit 51/100
Perfect Strike showed little on debut when finishing seventh over 6f. The step up to 6½f today asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced colt, and with only one run on good to firm the small sample makes firm conclusions risky. William Haggas has a solid 20% strike rate at Newbury from 711 runs with an A/E of 0.98, while Tom Marquand posts a 15% strike rate from 520 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.03. Their combined record is 445/2081 (21%) with an A/E of 0.91, and the colt drops in class here.
Sol Dorado KTB Fit 51/100
Sol Dorado is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 13% strike rate at Newbury from 410 runs with an A/E of 0.95. Bought for 62,000 guineas at the breeze-up sales, he is by Golden Horde out of a dam who has produced several winners including a useful sprinter. With low data confidence and both trainer Marcus Tregoning and jockey Rob Hornby holding modest course records, his debut remains something of an unknown. The pair combine at 4/35 (11%) with an A/E of 1.18.
Solar Swing KTB Fit 50/100
Solar Swing is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 16% strike rate at Newbury from 64 runs with an A/E of 0.95. The Billy Loughnane partnership shows a respectable 15% record from 61 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.91, and their overall record together is 170/902 (19%) with an A/E of 0.86. With no racecourse form available and low data confidence, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background which remain unknown here. By Starman, whose overall win rate is 12% from 905 runners, he is rated exactly 50 on KTB Fit.
The rest of the field
Kicking BearKTB Fit 49/100
Kicking Bear is a debutant so the form picture is limited to pedigree and sales background. Connections are in reasonable order with the trainer showing a 12% strike-rate at Newbury from 365 runs with an A/E of 0.9, though jockey Kieran Shoemark has a more modest 9% record at the track from 316 rides with an A/E of 0.74.
YabreenKTB Fit 48/100
Yabreen is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike-rate at Newbury from 88 runs with an A/E of 1.07. Oisin Murphy takes the ride and has a solid 15% record at the track from 558 rides with an A/E of 0.88, though the trainer-jockey combination is currently 0/8 (0%). With low data confidence the rest rests on pedigree and sales background which are not supplied here.
MoofeedKTB Fit 48/100
Moofeed is a well-bred newcomer who cost plenty at the sales. Archie Watson has a 10% strike-rate at Newbury from 115 runs with an A/E of 0.99, yet the yard's recent two-year-old form is patchy and William Cox is only 5% at the track from 62 rides with an A/E of 0.76. Their overall record is 5/120 (4%) with an A/E of 0.63.
CrushermanKTB Fit 46/100
Crusherman showed only modest pace on debut over 5f here when well held in fifth and now steps up to an untested 6½f which asks a fresh question. He is unproven on good to firm, though he has course form having finished fifth at Newbury. The Brian Meehan yard posts an 8% strike rate at the track from 1204 runs with an A/E of 0.84, while David Egan has an 11% record from 255 rides with an A/E of 0.94; their combination is currently 0/24 (0%).
Flick Of An EyeKTB Fit 44/100
Flick Of An Eye is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and the Crisford stable. The yard posts a 10% strike-rate from 83 runs at Newbury with an A/E of 0.63, while Jack Mitchell matches that 10% from 140 rides here with an A/E of 0.86. Their overall record is 77/326 (24%) with an A/E of 0.94, yet with low data confidence and no racecourse form the colt remains an unknown quantity.
KTB verdict
Chevere is the KTB Selection. His chance rests entirely on pedigree and sales background, but he comes from a yard with a 21% strike rate at Newbury and is partnered by a jockey who is 23% at the track, both above average. The combination of trainer and jockey records gives him the strongest profile among the debutants in a race where established form is thin. The main dangers are Velma Dinkley, who has a solid trainer at the course despite modest form to date, and Perfect Strike from the powerful Haggas yard, who could improve for the longer trip despite a modest debut. Solar Swing and Sol Dorado are the other debutants with viable trainer-jockey combinations that cannot be ruled out.
KTB Selection Chevere
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Newbury among the principals?
Chevere's trainer Owen Burrows has a 21% strike rate at Newbury from 100 runs with an A/E of 1.11.
Has any horse in the field already run at Newbury?
Yes, Crusherman finished fifth on his only start at the course over 5f.
Which runner is the only one with a prominent run style noted?
Crusherman is noted as prominent, usually racing handily, though that is based on limited evidence with low confidence.
What is the combined trainer-jockey strike rate for the selection Chevere?
Owen Burrows and Callum Rodriguez are 20/71 (28%) with an A/E of 1.26.
Which two principals have already raced and shown modest form?
Velma Dinkley (form 09) and Perfect Strike (form 7) have both shown modest form in their starts so far.
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