1:44 Navan
This 5f180y nursery handicap at Navan on good to firm ground brings together eight juveniles, most with modest form and several unproven on the surface or at the trip. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Supreme Lord heading the numbers on 62, followed by Someday Somewhere on 50 and a pair on 47. With the pace shape looking tentative on limited evidence, the race lacks a clear leader and could develop into a test of timing from the rear.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence of a front-runner. Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who produce their effort late. Howlin Wolf is the one runner with a front-running profile, though that is based on limited evidence and low confidence. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for the closers or if a slow tempo will favour those on the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Supreme Lord KTB Selection62/100Supreme Lord is a fair juvenile who has shown consistent placed form in three starts, finishing third on his most recent two outings.
- 2Someday Somewhere50/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form in three starts at maiden level, finishing no worse than fourth.
- 3Two Brigade47/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in four starts so far, finishing no better than fifth.
- 4Prince Of Peppard47/100Modest performer who has finished well down the field in all three starts to date.
- 5Howlin Wolf44/100Modest performer who showed his best when winning a nursery over this trip last time.
- 6Lucy's Promise43/100Lucy's Promise is a modest performer who has shown little since a debut sixth here over this trip.
- 7No Time Faults42/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts so far and was well beaten when tried here over this trip on debut.
- 8Little Diva35/100Little Diva has shown very little in three starts and sits in the limited category.
The contenders
Supreme Lord KTB Fit 62/100
Supreme Lord is a fair juvenile who has shown consistent placed form in three starts, finishing third on his most recent two outings. He drops back to 5f today having been placed over the trip on debut, though the shorter distance now poses a fresh question after his last run over 7f. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Navan from five runs with an A/E of 2.55. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride; the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.84 from 181 rides. Supreme Lord is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has had one run on good to firm without placing and has no course form on record.
Someday Somewhere KTB Fit 50/100
Someday Somewhere is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form in three starts at maiden level, finishing no worse than fourth. He drops back sharply from 7½f to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan from four runs with an A/E of 0 while the A/E for the yard-jockey combination stands at 1.09 from 165 runs. Jack Kearney takes the mount with a 9% strike rate at Navan and an A/E of 1.23 from 65 rides. Someday Somewhere is usually held up and produces his effort late on the basis of limited evidence. He has no runs on good to firm and no course form on record.
Two Brigade KTB Fit 47/100
Two Brigade is a modest performer who has shown little spark in four starts so far, finishing no better than fifth. He has been tried over today's trip twice without success and the small sample makes going suitability hard to pin down. Trainer M D O'Callaghan has a 16% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 1.07 from 112 runs and the yard-jockey combination shows 22% from 245 runs with an A/E of 1.19. Colin Keane is in the saddle with a 14% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 0.82 from 567 rides. Two Brigade is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has no runs on good to firm and no course form on record.
Prince Of Peppard KTB Fit 47/100
Prince Of Peppard is a modest performer who has finished well down the field in all three starts to date. Dropping back to 5f today after a poor run over 7½f asks a fresh question and the small-sample going note adds further uncertainty. Trainer J P Murtagh has a 12% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.92 from 248 runs while the yard-jockey combination is 13% from 1590 runs with an A/E of 0.85. Ben Coen rides with a 9% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 0.77 from 256 rides. Prince Of Peppard is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has no runs on good to firm and no course form on record.
The rest of the field
Howlin WolfKTB Fit 44/100
Howlin Wolf is a modest performer who showed his best when winning a nursery over this trip last time. He has twice finished seventh here without troubling the leaders and the yard's modest record at Navan offers little encouragement. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.55 from 71 runs while the yard-jockey combination is 7% from 199 runs with an A/E of 0.83. Howlin Wolf tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence and has no runs on good to firm.
Lucy's PromiseKTB Fit 43/100
Lucy's Promise is a modest performer who has shown little since a debut sixth here over this trip. She has been well held in three starts at today's distance and now drops back from 7f having finished last of 14 on her most recent outing. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.67 from 308 runs and the yard-jockey combination is 10% from 1031 runs with an A/E of 0.93. Lucy's Promise is usually held up and produces her effort late on limited evidence and has one run on good to firm without placing.
No Time FaultsKTB Fit 42/100
No Time Faults is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts so far and was well beaten when tried here over this trip on debut. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the trip has already been tried twice without success. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Navan with an A/E of 0.97 from 65 runs while the yard-jockey combination is 13% from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.93. No Time Faults is usually held up and produces his effort late and has one run on good to firm without placing.
Little DivaKTB Fit 35/100
Little Diva has shown very little in three starts and sits in the limited category. The yard's poor 3% strike rate at Navan from a huge sample of 511 runs is another negative. The trainer-jockey combination is 0% from 22 runs with an A/E of 0.00. Little Diva is usually held up and produces her effort late and has no runs on good to firm.
KTB verdict
Supreme Lord stands out as the KTB Selection. He has shown consistent placed form in three starts as a fair juvenile and drops back to the trip over which he was placed on debut, with the trainer holding a strong 20% strike rate at Navan. The race shape, with its tentative pace and preponderance of hold-up runners, could suit his style of coming from off the pace. His main dangers are Someday Somewhere, who brings consistent maiden form though with a sharp drop in trip to contend with, and the pair on 47, Two Brigade and Prince Of Peppard, both of whom have questions to answer but are in the hands of capable trainers and jockeys at this venue.
KTB Selection Supreme Lord
This is the narrative read of the 1:44 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Supreme Lord with a KTB Fit of 62/100 is the selection.
How many runners are held up in their run style?
Seven of the eight runners are held up, with only Howlin Wolf tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is the only one to have won a nursery and over what trip?
Howlin Wolf showed his best when winning a nursery over this trip last time.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
No Time Faults is wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Navan for the yard of the selection?
The trainer of Supreme Lord has a 20% strike rate at Navan from five runs with an A/E of 2.55.
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