2:14 Navan
This 14-runner handicap at Navan over 5f180y on good to firm ground brings together a mix of fair and modest performers, most of whom are 3yos or older with exposed form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Cool Azul on 59, with Amiata just behind on 57 and Back Down Under on 55, suggesting a competitive race where course knowledge and the ability to produce a late effort could prove decisive. Most of the field share a similar held-up run-style, adding an extra layer of tactical nuance to proceedings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With the vast majority of runners, including all five principals, typically held up and producing their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around halfway. The key question is which horse can best negotiate the steadily-run tempo and deliver its challenge at the right moment without getting caught flat-footed in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cool Azul KTB Selection59/100Cool Azul is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form and a win at this track from his only run here.
- 2Amiata57/100Amiata is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win over this trip.
- 3Back Down Under55/100Back Down Under is a fair performer who has placed on both previous visits to Navan and now drops back to a trip where he has won once from 13 starts.
- 4Sporting Hero54/100Sporting Hero is a fair performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has already scored at Navan.
- 5Alfred Tennyson50/100Alfred Tennyson is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second once from three runs here.
- 6By The Lake50/100By The Lake showed fair form as a juvenile, winning twice over 5f before a lesser effort on final start.
- 7Gotta Catch'em All48/100Fair performer who has won twice at this trip including once here from four starts.
- 8Jon Riggens47/100Fair performer who knows this place well, having won twice from five runs at Navan.
- 9Flaming Rib45/100Modest performer who has won five times at this trip but is 0-5 this year and has been well held in his last three starts.
- 10Tornado Kiss45/100Tornado Kiss is a fair performer who has shown mixed results since winning on debut last season.
- 11Mary Shoelaces44/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track in three previous runs.
- 12Sovereign Cry44/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form across ten runs this year, including a win and a placed effort at today's trip.
- 13All The Girls37/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on her better days, including a placed effort at today's trip.
- 14Smoke Them Out35/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit.
The contenders
Cool Azul KTB Fit 59/100
Cool Azul is a fair 3-year-old boasting solid placed form and a win at this track from his only previous run here. He drops back to 5f today after his last start over 7½f, a distance at which he has already won once. The Oliver yard records an 8% strike rate at Navan from a large sample of 338 runs while W J Lee has an 11% strike rate at the track from 555 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2 and remains unproven on good to firm ground. His recent form of 223712 underlines his consistency at this level.
Amiata KTB Fit 57/100
Amiata is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win over this trip. She has already won here from two runs at Navan and her trainer has a 12% strike rate from 661 runs at the track. The main negative is that she has never run on good to firm ground so this surface remains unproven. Usually held up and producing her effort late from stall 14, she is ridden by Colin Keane who has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 567 rides. Her form figures of 551418 reflect her competitiveness at this level.
Back Down Under KTB Fit 55/100
Back Down Under is a fair performer who has placed on both previous visits to Navan and now drops back to a trip where he has won once from 13 starts. He has been consistent enough this year without winning, though his two runs on good to firm ground have produced no placings. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from 65 runs is a negative, though apprentice Reese Holohan has a 14% strike rate here from a small sample of seven rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 8, his recent form reads 9-6450.
Sporting Hero KTB Fit 54/100
Sporting Hero is a fair performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has already scored at Navan from two runs here. He drops back from 7f today having looked out of form in recent runs and holds a modest record on good to firm ground from two starts without a win or place. The trainer operates at a 5% strike rate here from 40 runs, though the 7lb claimer Jamie Orr boasts a 100% strike rate at Navan from one ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 6, his recent form is 061000.
Alfred Tennyson KTB Fit 50/100
Alfred Tennyson is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second once from three runs here. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip in the past, though his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 246 runs at Navan while Sam Coen has a 6% strike rate at the venue from 31 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 9, his recent form reads 060315.
The rest of the field
By The LakeKTB Fit 50/100
By The Lake showed fair form as a juvenile, winning twice over 5f before a lesser effort on final start. He steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear, both fresh questions, and the trainer has no recorded runners at Navan.
Gotta Catch'em AllKTB Fit 48/100
Gotta Catch'em All is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip including once here from four starts. Recent form shows flashes of ability but has been inconsistent overall and is 0 from 1 on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Navan from a large sample is a negative.
Jon RiggensKTB Fit 47/100
Jon Riggens is a fair performer who knows this place well, having won twice from five runs at Navan. Recent form has been patchy but he did land a similar race last time and has three wins from 25 starts at today's trip. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is offset by the horse's own course record, though he remains unproven on good to firm.
Flaming RibKTB Fit 45/100
Flaming Rib is a modest performer who has won five times at this trip but is 0-5 this year and has been well held in his last three starts. First time at Navan so that side is unknown while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 308 runs here adds little confidence. Goes on good to firm with one win and two places from eight starts.
Tornado KissKTB Fit 45/100
Tornado Kiss is a fair performer who has shown mixed results since winning on debut last season. He steps up in trip today having been placed once in two runs at this distance without winning. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 202 runs at Navan.
Mary ShoelacesKTB Fit 44/100
Mary Shoelaces is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track in three previous runs. Trainer Eddie and Patrick Harty hold a solid 10% strike rate from 42 runs at Navan while jockey Jessica O'Gorman has only 7 rides here so the sample remains small. Goes up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on three of seven attempts and she has won once from two runs on good to firm ground.
Sovereign CryKTB Fit 44/100
Sovereign Cry is a fair performer who has shown mixed form across ten runs this year, including a win and a placed effort at today's trip. First time headgear is now tried after a string of ordinary efforts, while the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Navan offers little encouragement. Has handled good to firm but shown no win or place success on it from just two attempts.
All The GirlsKTB Fit 37/100
All The Girls is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on her better days, including a placed effort at today's trip. She makes her first start at Navan and has no experience of good to firm ground so both are unknowns. Trainer has a modest 3% strike rate from 511 runs here.
Smoke Them OutKTB Fit 35/100
Smoke Them Out is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit. He has won three times at today's trip but his record on good to firm is limited to a single run. The trainer's modest record at Navan adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Cool Azul stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old with solid placed form, he brings a win at this track from his only previous run here and drops back to a trip at which he has already scored once. The combination of course success, the booking of W J Lee and the yard's respectable record at Navan from a big sample gives him strong claims in a race where being handy in a steadily-run affair should pay. His main dangers are Amiata, who has already won here and brings a win over the trip, and Back Down Under, who has placed on both previous visits to the track. Sporting Hero and Alfred Tennyson add further depth, the former with a prior course win and the latter with consistent placed form at Navan.
KTB Selection Cool Azul
This is the narrative read of the 2:14 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 7½f or 7f?
Cool Azul drops back from 7½f while Sporting Hero drops back from 7f.
How many horses in the field have previous winning form at Navan?
Cool Azul, Amiata, Back Down Under, Sporting Hero, Gotta Catch'em All and Jon Riggens have all won at Navan previously.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
By The Lake and Sovereign Cry are both wearing first-time headgear.
Which horses are completely unproven on good to firm ground?
Cool Azul, Amiata, By The Lake, Jon Riggens, Tornado Kiss and All The Girls have no runs on good to firm.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Navan among those with meaningful data?
Eddie and Patrick Harty have a 10% strike rate at Navan from 42 runs.
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