4:38 Thirsk
This Class 2 handicap over 7f at Thirsk on good ground features a competitive 14-runner field where the KTB numbers highlight a tight bunch at the top. The top five in the KTB Fit rankings are separated by just six points, with the selection He's A Monster heading the list on 63. Recent form is mixed across the runners, but several hold strong course records or proven ability at the trip, and the pace shape points to a strong gallop that could play into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and the race is likely to be run at a genuine clip that could cause it to collapse late. Mirsky and Sergeant Wilko are the types to take the field along from the front or on the pace, while the majority of the field, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the leaders will pay for their exertions in the closing stages, allowing the hold-up performers to come through.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1He's A Monster KTB Selection63/100Useful performer who showed his best when winning last time out.
- 2Palmar Bay62/100Palmar Bay is a useful performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form of 44083.
- 3Invictus Gold61/100Useful performer who has been knocking at the door this year without quite getting his head in front.
- 4Mirsky59/100Useful performer who has won twice from four runs at Thirsk.
- 5Northern Express57/100Northern Express is a useful performer who has won at this track and over today's trip.
- 6Superposition53/100Useful performer who has won on good ground and at this trip.
- 7Sergeant Wilko52/100Sergeant Wilko is a fair performer who has run well at this track, winning once from three starts.
- 8Bobby Bennu52/100Useful performer who has won over this trip and won on his only visit to Thirsk.
- 9Our Havana50/100Our Havana is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip and handles good ground well with three wins from six runs.
- 10Majestic Dane49/100Fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut over this trip before finishing second next time.
- 11Brighton Boy48/100Brighton Boy is a fair performer who has run well at this track, winning once from three starts here.
- 12Perfect Part46/100Fair performer who has run well at this track on both visits, finishing second and fourth.
- 13Frankies Dream46/100Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place on three of his last six starts yet has failed to win in 2024.
- 14Alpha Capture41/100Alpha Capture is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 212022 that includes two wins and consistent placings.
The contenders
He's A Monster KTB Fit 63/100
He's A Monster arrives as a useful performer who showed his best when winning last time out. He has won six times over today's trip from 12 attempts and that looks his optimum distance. The 6-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, though there is only limited evidence for that run-style. Hamad Al Jehani brings a 50% strike rate at Thirsk from a small sample with an A/E of 1.02, though the yard's record with the jockey stands at 1/8. Only one run on good ground so far and no previous course form on record, yet he is taken to strike again.
Palmar Bay KTB Fit 62/100
Palmar Bay is a useful performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with form of 44083. He has won on good ground and at this trip though his recent efforts suggest he needs things to fall just right. The 5-year-old is held up with high confidence in that run-style, which should suit the anticipated strong pace. Ralph Beckett's 21% strike rate at Thirsk from 61 runs comes with an A/E of 0.93 and the stable's record with Callum Rodriguez is 4/24. The combination arrives with high data confidence and looks sure to be involved.
Invictus Gold KTB Fit 61/100
Invictus Gold is a useful performer who has been knocking at the door this year without quite getting his head in front. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having looked as though the extra furlong would suit, and he has solid form on good ground with one win from three runs. Usually held up with high confidence, the 4-year-old should be well placed to capitalise if the leaders go too hard. Tom Clover's 21% strike rate at Thirsk from 14 runs carries an A/E of 1.02 while the yard's record with Cieren Fallon stands at 6/20.
Mirsky KTB Fit 59/100
Mirsky is a useful performer who has won twice from four runs at Thirsk. Recent form is poor with a string of unplaced efforts and he drops back in trip to 7f today having failed to win in six previous attempts at the distance. The 7-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and is likely to be prominent in a race with a strong pace shape. David O'Meara has a solid 14% strike rate here from a large sample of 707 runs while Daniel Tudhope is equally at home on the track with an 18% strike rate.
Northern Express KTB Fit 57/100
Northern Express is a useful performer who has won at this track and over today's trip. He arrives in decent form with a fifth and a win from his last six starts and has a solid record on good ground with two wins from 16 runs. Usually held up, the 8-year-old is likely to be ridden for luck from a wide draw in stall 14 which is far from ideal. Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 1151 runs while the yard's record with Connor Beasley stands at 227/2115.
The rest of the field
SuperpositionKTB Fit 53/100
Superposition is a useful performer who has won on good ground and at this trip. Recent form is mixed with a win and a third sandwiched between some lesser efforts while he steps up in class. The 5-year-old is held up with high confidence and this is his first start at Thirsk where the trainer holds a 14% strike rate.
Sergeant WilkoKTB Fit 52/100
Sergeant Wilko is a fair performer who has run well at this track, winning once from three starts. He has placed twice on good ground without winning and has also placed at today's trip, though recent form of 46828 shows inconsistency. The 5-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and the trainer's 11% strike rate from 991 runs at Thirsk is modest.
Bobby BennuKTB Fit 52/100
Bobby Bennu is a useful performer who has won over this trip and won on his only visit to Thirsk. He has a solid record on good ground with one win from six runs and the yard's 21% strike rate at the track adds confidence, though recent form has been a bit patchy. The 5-year-old is held up and steps up in class from draw 1.
Our HavanaKTB Fit 50/100
Our Havana is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip and handles good ground well with three wins from six runs. He has been below form on his last two starts and his record at Thirsk reads 0-3 with no placed efforts. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track offers little encouragement.
Majestic DaneKTB Fit 49/100
Majestic Dane is a fair performer who showed promise when winning on debut over this trip before finishing second next time. Lightly raced with only two runs total so remains open to improvement though he is unproven on good ground. The 3-year-old is prominent and steps up in class from draw 3.
Brighton BoyKTB Fit 48/100
Brighton Boy is a fair performer who has run well at this track, winning once from three starts here. He steps up from 6f to 7f today having already won twice at the trip from 11 attempts, though his recent form of 260603 shows inconsistency. The 4-year-old is held up and the yard has an 8% strike rate from over 2000 runs at Thirsk.
Perfect PartKTB Fit 46/100
Perfect Part is a fair performer who has run well at this track on both visits, finishing second and fourth. Consistent rather than progressive on recent evidence with a string of placed efforts but no win in eight starts at this trip. The 4-year-old is held up and has placed on good ground.
Frankies DreamKTB Fit 46/100
Frankies Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent enough to place on three of his last six starts yet has failed to win in 2024. He has shown up well at this track before and is dropping back to a trip he has won at twice on ground he handles. The 4-year-old is held up and steps up in class.
Alpha CaptureKTB Fit 41/100
Alpha Capture is a fair performer with a solid recent record of 212022 that includes two wins and consistent placings. He has won over today's 7f trip but is dropping back in distance after his latest run over 7½f, while his record on good ground reads two wins from 11 runs. The 6-year-old is held up, the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Thirsk is a negative and he was only sixth on his sole previous run here.
KTB verdict
He's A Monster is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best chance in a race where the strong pace could play to his strengths as a hold-up performer. His win last time out confirmed his status as a useful performer at his optimum trip of 7f, and the trainer's excellent record at Thirsk adds further layers of confidence. The main dangers are likely to come from Palmar Bay and Invictus Gold, both of whom are also held-up types with strong recent data and solid trainer form at the track, while Mirsky could capitalise on his course record if the leaders are not caught too early.
KTB Selection He's A Monster
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:34 UTC, 28 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| He's A Monster | 14/1 | Midnite |
| Palmar Bay | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Invictus Gold | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Mirsky | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Northern Express | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Superposition | 12/1 | Midnite |
| Sergeant Wilko | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Bobby Bennu | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Our Havana | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Majestic Dane | 8/1 | Bet Victor |
| Brighton Boy | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Perfect Part | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Frankies Dream | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Alpha Capture | 8/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:38 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won the most times over today's 7f trip?
He's A Monster with six wins from 12 attempts.
How many front-runners are expected to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely.
Which runner has the strongest trainer strike rate at Thirsk among the principals?
He's A Monster's trainer has a 50% strike rate at Thirsk from a small sample.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Thirsk?
Superposition.
Who steps up in trip to 7f for the first time?
Invictus Gold.
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