5:05 Down Royal
The 5:05 at Down Royal is a 2m1f87y Dale Farm Dromona Mares Maiden Hurdle run on good to firm ground with an 11-runner field. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Saoirses Choice on 54, with the next four principals all between 47 and 52. Overall the numbers point to a race short on established hurdling form and littered with unknowns around trip, ground and course, making it a cautiously viewed affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader and is expected to produce a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Rare Times is the one most likely to race prominently and could end up dictating a sensible tempo. The key question is whether any of the hold-up performers can time their efforts effectively off what is likely to be a modest gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Saoirses Choice KTB Selection54/100Saoirses Choice has shown modest form in three runs to date, finishing no better than fourth.
- 2Messonghi52/100Messonghi fell on his only start so far and remains very lightly raced with just one run in the last year.
- 3Rare Times49/100Rare Times is a useful sort who has shown consistent form this year with three placed efforts from five runs.
- 4Clanokre Lass49/100Lightly raced with just three runs and form of 645, so any assessment has to be cautious.
- 5Cosmic Front47/100Cosmic Front is lightly raced with only eight career starts and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m4½f, which poses a fresh question.
- 6Howaya Codge47/100Howaya Codge has only one career run in the last year so any assessment is tentative.
- 7Jo's Secret44/100Jo's Secret has shown some ability with placed efforts on two of her last three starts but was pulled up on her most recent outing.
- 8Loughdoo44/100Loughdoo has shown little in four starts so far with a recent string of 4P0-8 that leaves him looking modest at best.
- 9Churchfield Annie44/100Churchfield Annie has shown some ability with placed efforts on her first two starts but has failed to build on that in three runs since, including a pulled-up…
- 10That's It Girl43/100That's It Girl is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
- 11Tanga Mugi41/100Tanga Mugi showed little in a bumper on debut then fell in a maiden hurdle last time.
The contenders
Saoirses Choice KTB Fit 54/100
Saoirses Choice has shown modest form in three runs to date, finishing no better than fourth. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Down Royal from 14 runs while the 7 lb claimer is still seeking a first success from ten rides here. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question and with so little overall evidence this one is best approached with caution. Her run-style is to be held up and produce her effort late. Saoirses Choice remains unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form on record. The trainer-jockey combination has produced a positive A/E of 2.49 from their 14 runs together.
Messonghi KTB Fit 52/100
Messonghi fell on his only start so far and remains very lightly raced with just one run in the last year. The yard holds a modest 7% strike rate at Down Royal from a large sample while jockey Tiernan Power Roche has a strong 23% record from his 13 rides here. Stepping up in trip is an unknown and the small amount of overall evidence means this one must be treated with real caution. He is unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form. The combination of limited exposure and the fall last time leaves plenty to take on trust.
Rare Times KTB Fit 49/100
Rare Times is a useful sort who has shown consistent form this year with three placed efforts from five runs. He steps up in trip today having been beaten over this distance on his only previous try and the small sample makes going suitability hard to judge. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 27 runs while the jockey operates at a solid 10% from 124 rides. Usually racing prominently, he is the most likely to be handy in a race that lacks an obvious leader. Rare Times is unproven on good to firm and has no previous course experience.
Clanokre Lass KTB Fit 49/100
Clanokre Lass is lightly raced with just three runs and form of 645, so any assessment has to be cautious. The drop back in trip to 2m1f today asks a fresh question of her. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a solid 21% strike rate from 939 runs at Down Royal. She typically settles in midfield though the evidence for her run-style is limited. Clanokre Lass is unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form on record.
Cosmic Front KTB Fit 47/100
Cosmic Front is lightly raced with only eight career starts and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m4½f, which poses a fresh question. The yard holds a 16% strike rate from 237 runs at Down Royal while the jockey is operating at 8% from 76 rides here. No experience on good to firm ground adds another unknown. From the powerful W P Mullins stable, he brings the highest-profile trainer in the line-up. With so few runs and a big distance rise, there are multiple questions to answer.
The rest of the field
Howaya CodgeKTB Fit 47/100
Howaya Codge has only one career run in the last year so any assessment is tentative. The yard has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Down Royal while the jockey operates at an 11% strike rate from 110 rides here. Dropping back in trip to an untried 2m1f poses a fresh question for this lightly raced 5-year-old. He is unproven on good to firm and has no course form.
Jo's SecretKTB Fit 44/100
Jo's Secret has shown some ability with placed efforts on two of her last three starts but was pulled up on her most recent outing. She now drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried which asks a fresh question of her. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Down Royal while the jockey is operating at just 2%. Usually held up, she is unproven on good to firm and has no course form.
LoughdooKTB Fit 44/100
Loughdoo has shown little in four starts so far with a recent string of 4P0-8 that leaves him looking modest at best. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a poor 0% strike rate from 41 runs here while the jockey operates with a solid 8% strike rate from 24 rides at the track. He is unproven on good to firm and has no course form.
Churchfield AnnieKTB Fit 44/100
Churchfield Annie has shown some ability with placed efforts on her first two starts but has failed to build on that in three runs since, including a pulled-up effort. She now drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. The Emmet Mullins yard has a solid 21% strike rate at Down Royal from 33 runs while Donagh Meyler is operating at a 9% strike rate from 128 rides here. Usually held up, she remains unproven on good to firm.
That's It GirlKTB Fit 43/100
That's It Girl is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Down Royal from a big sample of runners. Pedigree and sales background will need to be strong to overcome the usual risks with a first-timer on good to firm ground. She has no course win on record.
Tanga MugiKTB Fit 41/100
Tanga Mugi showed little in a bumper on debut then fell in a maiden hurdle last time. Lightly raced with only one completed run the form is hard to weigh up and the drop back in trip today asks a fresh question. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer and jockey have modest records at Down Royal. She is unproven on good to firm ground and has no course form.
KTB verdict
Saoirses Choice is the KTB Selection. She brings modest but consistent placed form in a race where several rivals have even less to recommend them, and the yard's healthy record at Down Royal offers some encouragement. The drop in trip and unproven ground are the main concerns, yet she still edges the numbers in a contest full of question marks. The main dangers are Rare Times, who should be prominent in a steadily-run race, and the lightly raced pair Messonghi and Clanokre Lass, though all come with their own uncertainties.
KTB Selection Saoirses Choice
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Down Royal. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Down Royal racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to race prominently?
Rare Times is the one most likely to race prominently as he usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
What is the trainer strike rate at Down Royal for Gordon Elliott?
Gordon Elliott has a 21% strike rate at Down Royal from 939 runs.
How many career starts does Cosmic Front have?
Cosmic Front is lightly raced with only eight career starts.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
All runners in the race have no runs on good to firm and are therefore unproven on the ground.
What is the jockey strike rate at Down Royal for Tiernan Power Roche?
Tiernan Power Roche has a 23% strike rate at Down Royal from 13 rides.
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