1:30 Haydock
This Class 5 amateur jockeys' handicap over 1m3f140y at Haydock on soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom arrive in reasonable heart but with plenty of unknowns regarding trip, surface and venue. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Revelio narrowly heading the numbers at 56 despite a modest profile this year. Several hold-up performers line up against a couple of confirmed front-runners, and with no previous course-and-distance winners in the line-up the race poses a number of questions.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Alpine Sierra and Star Start, with Roland Garros also likely to be prominent. The race looks likely to be run at a searching gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable late on. That shape would play to the strengths of the hold-up horses, several of whom are among the principals, and the key question will be whether any of the pace-setters can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Revelio KTB Selection56/100
Revelio is a modest performer who has shown little spark across six runs this year, his best effort only fifth on his most recent two starts. He has tried this trip before without success and his small sample on soft ground leaves his effectiveness on it unproven. Trainer Tom Clover brings a solid 17% strike rate at Haydock from 36 runs, while jockey Henry Callan boasts a 100% strike rate at the track from his one ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Revelio is the KTB Selection and could be suited if the anticipated strong pace collapses.
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2Alpine Sierra54/100
Alpine Sierra is a modest performer who has been in good heart of late, recording three wins from his last six starts. He steps up in trip today having never tried this far, which asks a fresh question, while trainer Jim Goldie has a modest 4% strike rate from 357 runs at Haydock. The jockey has no recorded rides at the track and this is the horse's first appearance here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he has won once and been placed once from four starts on soft ground and drops in class.
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3I'd Go Maniac54/100
I'd Go Maniac is a modest performer who has won twice at today's trip from eight attempts and arrives in decent nick judged on the recent 852431 sequence. This is his first time at Haydock and he has no experience of soft ground, both of which count as unknowns rather than proven weaknesses. Alan King has a solid 13% strike rate here from 380 runs while the 5lb claimer is making her debut at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he could be well placed if the race falls apart late.
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4Flightofthephoenix53/100
Flightofthephoenix is a modest performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He is one from one at this trip, which is a plus, yet he has never tackled soft ground and this is his first visit to Haydock. Trainer Charles Hills holds a solid 16% strike rate here while the jockey has too few rides at the track to draw any firm conclusions. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he could benefit from the likely strong pace.
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5Star Start50/100
Star Start is a limited performer who has been consistent this year without winning, finishing in the first three on four of his last six starts. He handles soft ground with one win from eight starts and four places, and has placed twice at today's trip though he steps back up in distance having last run over 1m3f. This is the first time at Haydock for both horse and jockey while the trainer's modest 7% strike rate here from 187 runs adds no encouragement. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be involved in the strong early gallop.
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6Spirit Catcher48/100
Spirit Catcher is a modest performer with a long record of steady but rarely decisive efforts. He has shown some ability at this track but has never won or placed in three runs here and holds no better than a fourth on soft ground. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while the wide draw is far from ideal and he steps up in class.
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7Austrian Theory47/100
Austrian Theory is a modest performer with a long record of 50 runs and recent form that has been no better than modest. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from a huge sample at Haydock while the jockey is still seeking a first win from six rides here. He goes well enough on soft ground with a win and three places from six starts yet remains unproven at this trip after three tries.
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8Ribble River47/100
Ribble River is a modest performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has scored once from three runs at Haydock. Dropping back from 2m1f should suit but his only soft-ground effort brought no win or place. Trainer and jockey both have very small samples at the track so their effectiveness here remains unproven.
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9Roland Garros44/100
Roland Garros is a modest performer with placed efforts over this trip and on soft ground. He has shown up well at Haydock without winning, finishing second on one of four starts here. Dropping back from 2m looks a logical move but the trainer and jockey both have very small samples at the track and he is likely to be prominent early.
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10Shahbaz43/100
Shahbaz is a limited performer who has dropped to a more realistic level after a string of modest efforts. He has shown some course familiarity with a fourth here on his only visit and acts on soft ground with a win and three places from seven attempts. The trip is no problem either having won over it before though the yard and rider both have below-average records at Haydock.
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11Cavalry Call43/100
Cavalry Call is a limited performer on his recent record and has failed to trouble the judge in four starts this year. He has shown some ability at this trip in the past but looks stretched by the soft ground on which he is 0-2. The trainer has a modest 7% strike-rate at Haydock from a decent-sized sample and he steps up in class.
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12Recobella43/100
Recobella is a modest performer who has been consistent this year with two wins from her last six starts. She has already won over today's trip and has shown she can be competitive on soft ground, though she has never won on it. She ran respectably when sixth on her only previous visit to Haydock and steps up in class.
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13Red Derek38/100
Red Derek is a limited performer who has won once in 12 runs at Haydock and has placed on soft ground. Recent form is modest and the yard's 3% strike-rate here from a large sample is another negative. Trip looks about right but overall he looks vulnerable in this company.
KTB verdict
Revelio is the KTB Selection. Although only a modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year, he is narrowly top on the numbers and is trained by Tom Clover who has a solid record at Haydock. The strong pace that looks likely could suit his hold-up style if the leaders fold late. Main dangers include I'd Go Maniac, who has won twice at the trip and arrives in decent nick, and Flightofthephoenix who has won two of his last three. Alpine Sierra and Star Start will ensure a strong gallop in front.
KTB Selection Revelio
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Alpine Sierra and Star Start tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Roland Garros is also likely to be prominent.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
Revelio, I'd Go Maniac and Flightofthephoenix have no runs on soft ground.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Haydock?
Tom Clover has a 17% strike rate at Haydock from 36 runs.
Which horse has course form at Haydock?
Ribble River has won once from three runs here, Roland Garros has been placed once from four runs, Spirit Catcher has three runs without a win or place, Shahbaz finished fourth once, Cavalry Call was eighth once, Recobella was sixth once and Red Derek has won once from 12 runs.
Which principals are dropping or stepping in class?
Alpine Sierra is dropping in class, while Star Start is stepping up in class.
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