2:30 Ascot

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Chymbulak51/100

   Form 2 · Roger Varian · Ray Dawson

   Chymbulak shaped with promise when finishing second on debut over this trip at Newmarket last month. That effort came against useful opposition and represents a solid start, though the small sample of form leaves his exact level open to question. Roger Varian holds a 12% strike rate at Ascot from 482 runs, while Ray Dawson’s record at the track reads 11% with an A/E of 1.17 from 88 rides. The colt is as yet unproven on good ground and has no previous experience at the course. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will need to step forward if he is to land this.

2. 2Moon Rock KTB Selection51/100

   Ed Walker · Ashley Lewis(3)

   Moon Rock represents Ed Walker, who posts a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 258 runs. As a newcomer by Sea The Moon, his pedigree and sales background carry the bulk of the argument given the total absence of racecourse form. The yard’s record when teaming up with Ashley Lewis reads 14/62 with an A/E of 1.09, though the jockey himself is currently 0% from seven rides at the track. Connections are capable and the colt is the KTB Selection, yet this remains a step into the unknown on debut. He is drawn in stall three and will need to translate his paper promise into performance.

3. 3Too Darn Regal50/100

   Harry Eustace · George Wood

   Too Darn Regal is a debutant from the Harry Eustace yard, which has an 18% strike rate at Ascot from a small but effective sample of 44 runs. By Too Darn Hot, his pedigree and sales notes deserve respect in a race where racecourse evidence is thin. George Wood takes the mount, though the jockey’s Ascot record stands at 4% with an A/E of 0.48 from 49 rides. With no previous form and low data confidence overall, his chance rests squarely on how much of that pedigree he can display first time out. He is drawn widest in stall eleven.

4. 4San Jose47/100

   Form 4 · Brian Meehan · James Doyle

   San Jose showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over this trip and is dropping in class now. Brian Meehan’s record at Ascot reads a modest 6% strike rate from 633 runs, but the booking of James Doyle, who is 11% at the track from 631 rides, is a positive. The colt remains very lightly raced with only that one piece of form to go on and is as yet unproven on good ground. Typically settling in midfield, he should be on the scene if he has improved from his initial effort. He holds solid each-way claims on what he has shown so far.

5. 5Shimmering Shadow46/100

   Simon & Ed Crisford · William Buick

   Shimmering Shadow is a newcomer from the Simon & Ed Crisford stable, who operate at a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 94 runs. By Dark Angel and out of a dam who has produced smart winners, he was a 95,000 guineas sales purchase and that pedigree detail is the main positive. William Buick’s 14% strike rate at the track from 864 rides adds further interest. The yard’s record when teaming with the jockey reads 35/185 with an A/E of 0.80. With no racecourse form on which to rely, his chance will hinge on how much of that breeding and sales appeal he can reproduce on debut.

6. 6Impasto46/100

   Andrew Balding · Colin Keane

   Impasto is a newcomer from Andrew Balding’s yard, which has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 1049 runs. A 95,000 guineas yearling by Palace Pier out of a half-sister to Group 1 winner The Grey Gatsby, he benefits from the booking of Colin Keane, though the trainer-jockey combination shows a strong 35% strike rate together. No racecourse form exists and data confidence is low.

7. 7Korsakov45/100

   William Haggas · Tom Marquand

   Korsakov is a newcomer from William Haggas, who records a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 866 runs. A 95,000 guineas yearling by Sea The Stars out of a dam who produced several winners including Group-placed sprinter G Force, he is ridden by Tom Marquand. No racecourse form is available and the picture remains entirely speculative.

8. 8Ayuq45/100

   John & Thady Gosden · Benoit de la Sayette

   Ayuq is a newcomer from the John & Thady Gosden yard, which has a 13% strike rate at Ascot from 311 runs. A 300,000gns breeze-up purchase by Night Of Thunder out of a dam who produced several winners including Group-placed sprinter Ardad, he is partnered by Benoit de la Sayette. With no previous form, his chance depends on pedigree and sales appeal.

9. 9Senor Blues45/100

   Harry Charlton · Lewis Edmunds

   Senor Blues is a newcomer from Harry Charlton, who posts an 11% strike rate at Ascot from 38 runs. By Siyouni, his pedigree and sales background are the main pointers given the complete lack of racecourse form. Lewis Edmunds takes the ride on a track where both trainer and jockey records are modest.

10. 10Sky Mountain45/100

    Amanda Perrett · Rob Hornby

    Sky Mountain is a debutant from Amanda Perrett, who has a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 311 runs. By Awtaad, the pedigree and sales notes provide the only clues and low data confidence makes any assessment tentative. Rob Hornby is in the saddle.

11. 11Worthawhistle44/100

    Richard Hannon · Pat Dobbs

    Worthawhistle is a newcomer from Richard Hannon, who has a 7% strike rate at Ascot from 769 runs. By State Of Rest, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background given the absence of racecourse evidence. Pat Dobbs rides.