3:40 Ascot
This Class 2 Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over six furlongs at Ascot features a field of seven juveniles, several of whom arrive with limited racecourse experience. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Storm Force Ten heading the numbers on 65 while the next four sit on an identical 52. With the pace shape reading as tentative on medium confidence, the race lacks a clear, established leader and could develop into a tactical affair where positioning and experience prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Pure Mint is the most likely to take the race by the scruff from draw seven, though the limited evidence on his run-style leaves the early fractions open to question. Storm Force Ten should settle in midfield from stall five while Does Mary Know is typically held up and Brushstroke is another whose exact position remains to be confirmed. The key question is whether the race develops sufficient early speed or whether the lack of a natural leader allows midfield runners to dominate.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Storm Force Ten KTB Selection65/100
Storm Force Ten holds the highest KTB Fit Score of 65 and is the selection. He has shown promise as a juvenile with two placed efforts from as many starts, finishing third on debut before another placing over this trip. The yard posts a 12% strike rate at Ascot from 247 runs with an A/E of 1.63, while Saffie Osborne brings a 15% strike rate at the track from 146 rides with an A/E of 1.58. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and is described as competitive without a win to his name. Stepping up in class, he will settle in midfield according to his typical run-style. With only two career starts the form must be treated with caution, yet the yard's solid record at the venue gives him a clear edge on these figures.
-
2Does Mary Know52/100
Does Mary Know carries a KTB Fit Score of 52. She has placed on both starts so far, finishing second on debut and then improving to go close again over this trip last time. The yard records an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 228 runs with an A/E of 1.09. She has been placed once from two runs on good ground and remains competitive without a win. Typically held up and producing her effort late, she will come from off the pace, though that read comes with low confidence on limited evidence. With just two starts the form has to be treated with caution, yet her consistency so far makes her a solid player in this restricted event.
-
3Pure Mint52/100
Pure Mint is rated 52 on KTB Fit. He won his only start to date over this trip, though he is now stepping up in class. The Crisford yard has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 94 runs with an A/E of 0.75 while James Doyle takes the ride with an 11% strike rate at the track from 631 rides and an A/E of 0.98. He has no experience of good ground so far and remains unproven on it. Likely to make the running or race prominently, his front-running style comes with low confidence on limited evidence. With just one run on the board and low data confidence the form must be treated with caution, yet his winning start gives him a clear benchmark.
-
4Brushstroke52/100
Brushstroke also sits on a KTB Fit Score of 52. He showed promise when finishing runner-up on debut over seven furlongs and now drops back to six furlongs, a distance he has not tried before. The yard has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from a small sample of 12 runs with an A/E of 1.01. He has no experience of good ground and remains unproven on it, while both his ability and the suitability of the trip are hard to pin down from limited data. Stepping up in class, he represents a yard that can ready one for a big effort at this venue. The drop in trip poses a fresh question of him and the small sample means his overall profile carries plenty of unknowns.
-
5Soldier Of The Sea52/100
Soldier Of The Sea is rated 52 on KTB Fit. A fair sort who made a winning start over this trip before finishing second in a stronger race last time, he has already shown he handles good ground with one win from one run. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Ascot from 140 runs with an A/E of 0.75, though the jockey's record here is taken into account. Stepping up in class and lightly raced, he is not fully exposed.
-
6War Chest47/100
War Chest is a debutant rated 47 on KTB Fit and runs in first-time headgear. By Saxon Warrior he represents a yard with an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 228 runs and an A/E of 1.09. Connections will hope he can show enough on this first run at a track where the trainer has a solid record, though only pedigree and sales background are available to assess him.
-
7Nobelos44/100
Nobelos carries a KTB Fit Score of 44. He showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over this trip, though the small sample means little else can be read into that effort or his ability to handle good ground on which he remains unproven. Trainer Hills has a modest 7% strike-rate at Ascot from 331 runs with an A/E of 0.71. Stepping up in class, he is typically held up.
KTB verdict
Storm Force Ten is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit Score in the race along with placed form in both starts and the benefit of a yard that operates at a 12% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample. His ability to settle in midfield should suit the tentative pace shape, and the Osborne combination has a strong record at the venue. The form of his two runs must be treated with caution given his light experience, yet he looks to have the best blend of proven ability and yard support. Pure Mint's winning start and likely pace role make him a clear danger, while Does Mary Know's consistency and Brushstroke's promise cannot be ignored in a race where several runners still have plenty to prove.
KTB Selection Storm Force Ten
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:10 UTC, 4 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Storm Force Ten | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Does Mary Know | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Pure Mint | 5/6 | William Hill |
| Brushstroke | 6/1 | Midnite |
| Soldier Of The Sea | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| War Chest | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Nobelos | 28/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Pure Mint tends to make the running or race on the pace according to the limited evidence available.
How many of these runners have previous experience of good ground?
Storm Force Ten, Does Mary Know and Soldier Of The Sea have all been placed or won on good going; the remainder are unproven.
Which trainer has the strongest Ascot strike rate among those represented?
Jamie Osborne has a 12% strike rate at Ascot from 247 runs with an A/E of 1.63.
What is the confidence level attached to the overall pace shape?
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence.
Which runner is stepping back in trip from a debut over seven furlongs?
Brushstroke showed promise when runner-up on debut over 7f and now drops back to an untried 6f.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies