4:48 Ascot
This Class 2 handicap over a mile at Ascot promises a genuinely-run, fair test on good ground with a field of 13. The KTB numbers highlight a competitive race where course form carries significant weight, with several principals boasting prior success or placed efforts at the track. Overall the Fit Scores suggest a tight contest at the top, headed by Hickory on 74, while the remainder cluster between 63 and 48.
How the race shapes up
With a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in what is rated a genuinely-run race, the pace should be strong and even from early on. Most of the principals, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, meaning the race could be decided by which closers can navigate the pack and strike in the final furlong. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or if the hold-up brigade will have too much to do in a strongly-run affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Hickory KTB Selection74/100
Hickory is a useful performer who has won three times at this track from 12 starts and has also landed a race at today's trip. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and holds a solid course record. The yard has a strong record at Ascot with an above-average strike-rate of 12 per cent and an A/E of 1.63 from 247 runs. Saffie Osborne, who teams up with her father Jamie, boasts a 15 per cent strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.58 from 146 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the eight-year-old is stepping up in class from a wide draw of 11 but brings the strongest KTB Fit score at 74.
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2Hard Endeavor63/100
Hard Endeavor is a useful performer who has shown a good level of consistency this year. He has already won over today's trip and his recent form includes a solid fourth in stronger company at this track. The yard holds a respectable record at Ascot with a 9 per cent strike rate and an A/E of 1.16 from 141 runs. Rossa Ryan takes the ride and has a 10 per cent strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.03 from 247 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a low draw of 3, the four-year-old arrives with a KTB Fit of 63 and looks sure to be involved if the race sets up for the closers.
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3Arctic Thunder61/100
Arctic Thunder is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form shows two wins in his last three starts and he has solid placed form on good ground with two wins from eight attempts. Trainer Ed Walker maintains a strong record here with a 13 per cent strike rate and an A/E of 1.21 from 258 runs. The 3lb claimer Ashley Lewis is aboard, though he has a 0 per cent strike rate from seven rides at Ascot. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 2, the five-year-old is stepping up in class but brings a KTB Fit of 61 and course-winning form that cannot be ignored.
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4Ozat60/100
Ozat is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has shown up well at this track once before, finishing third on one of two visits, and acts on good ground while having won over today's trip. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark a revival. The Ian Williams yard has a solid record here with a 9 per cent strike rate and an A/E of 0.93 from 400 runs. James Doyle takes the mount with an 11 per cent strike rate at Ascot and an A/E of 0.98 from 631 rides. Usually held up from draw 5, the five-year-old has a KTB Fit of 60.
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5Blue Rc60/100
Blue Rc is a useful performer who has run well at this track once before, finishing second on one of two visits, and handles good ground with one win from two starts. He has won over today's trip and his recent form is solid in this grade. The James Tate yard has a modest record here with a 7 per cent strike rate and an A/E of 0.72 from 82 runs. Rob Hornby is in the saddle with a 6 per cent strike rate at Ascot and an A/E of 0.75 from 137 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 10, the four-year-old carries a KTB Fit of 60.
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6Witch Hunter57/100
Witch Hunter is a useful performer who has won once from ten starts at Ascot and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy with three duck eggs in his last six runs and he is stepping back up in distance after his latest effort over 7f. The Richard Hannon yard's modest 7 per cent strike rate at the track adds a note of caution.
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7Classic57/100
Classic is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second here last year. He has winning form at this trip but his recent efforts have been patchy and he has yet to win at Ascot in three attempts. The Richard Hannon yard's modest strike rate at the course adds a further negative.
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8Moonfall56/100
Moonfall is a useful performer who has already won over course and distance. Recent form has been a bit up and down but the Ascot success last year carries weight and the stable knows the place well enough. Stall 12 is the main negative from a wide draw.
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9Spanish Voice55/100
Spanish Voice is a useful performer who has run well at this track, finishing third on his only visit. He has solid form on good ground with two wins from three starts and has won at this trip from six attempts. The Andrew Balding yard's modest strike rate at Ascot is a slight negative despite the large sample.
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10Jolly Jack Tar50/100
Jolly Jack Tar is a useful performer who looked smart when landing a Goodwood handicap on reappearance before finishing a solid third in a strong Ascot Listed event. He drops back to 1m today having been placed without winning at the trip on his only previous attempt. The John and Thady Gosden yard has a 13 per cent strike rate at Ascot from 311 runs while William Buick is equally at home here.
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11Zennor Storm50/100
Zennor Storm is a useful performer who has shown steady progress and already won over today's trip. A creditable second on his most recent start suggests he remains competitive at this level, though the recent form figures show he can find one or two too good on his off days. William Haggas has a solid 13 per cent strike rate at Ascot while Tom Marquand is up.
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12Urban Lion49/100
Urban Lion is a useful performer who has shown his best at this trip, winning four times from 14 starts. He has placed at Ascot without winning from four runs here and has been competitive on good ground. The Jack Channon yard's modest 5 per cent strike rate at the track is a negative.
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13Mythical Guest48/100
Mythical Guest is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second twice and third twice from five runs. He acts on good ground and has placed form at this trip, though he is yet to win at either. The George Margarson yard's modest 5 per cent strike-rate at Ascot is a negative.
KTB verdict
Hickory stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit score of 74 and a strong course record that includes three wins from 12 starts at Ascot. His ability to handle good ground and the yard's above-average record at the track make him the one to beat in what looks a genuinely-run mile. The main dangers are likely to come from the other hold-up performers Hard Endeavor and Arctic Thunder, both of whom arrive in solid nick and have shown they can handle conditions at this venue.
KTB Selection Hickory
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 4 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Hickory | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Hard Endeavor | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Arctic Thunder | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Ozat | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Blue Rc | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Witch Hunter | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Classic | 15/2 | Midnite |
| Moonfall | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Spanish Voice | 13/2 | 7Bet |
| Jolly Jack Tar | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Zennor Storm | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Urban Lion | 20/1 | Midnite |
| Mythical Guest | 30/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:48 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Ascot?
Hickory, with three wins from 12 starts at the track.
How many of the principals are stepping up in class?
Three: Hickory, Arctic Thunder and Mythical Guest.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Ozat.
Which horse won over course and distance last year?
Moonfall.
Who has the best trainer-jockey strike rate combination at Ascot among the principals?
Ed Walker and Ashley Lewis, with the trainer on 13 per cent at the track.
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