3:47 Haydock
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Haydock on soft ground brings together a field of 12 sprinters where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Secret Mistral and Mighty Magnus both sit on an identical 62, with Jer Batt just behind on 61, suggesting a competitive contest in which course knowledge, draw and proven ability on soft ground will be key. The overall KTB numbers point to a race in which experience at Haydock and a solid record in the mud should carry extra weight.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Secret Mistral from stall 10 and Accrual drawn in 9. The pace shape suggests the leaders could go hard early and the race may collapse in the closing stages, which would play into the hands of the hold-up performers. Several principals, including Mighty Magnus, Jer Batt, Lipsink and Spoof, are all habitual hold-up types who will be looking to come from off the pace once the leaders tire. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms or whether the race will fall apart late to suit those coming from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Secret Mistral KTB Selection62/100
Secret Mistral is a fair performer who has won three times at Haydock from 16 starts and also has a solid record on soft ground with one win and two places from just two runs. He has won six times at this trip from 34 starts and arrives in reasonable form having shown placed efforts on his last two outings. The 6-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently from his draw in stall 10, a run-style that could be tested by the anticipated strong pace. Tony Carroll has a 9% strike rate at Haydock from 198 runs while Clifford Lee takes the ride; the pair have combined for a 14% strike rate with a positive A/E of 1.18. Having won here before and with proven ability on soft ground, he holds a strong hand in a race where his prominent racing style may set up the contest.
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2Mighty Magnus62/100
Mighty Magnus is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes a win and two places from his last six starts. He has already won twice at this trip from ten attempts and has shown he handles soft ground by placing on his only run on it. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace that is likely to materialise. Michael Dods maintains a 12% strike rate at Haydock from 453 runs while Connor Beasley, who has a 10% strike rate at the track, takes the mount. The wide draw in stall 11 is a clear negative, yet his ability to come from off the pace in a race that could collapse late gives him a major chance.
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3Jer Batt61/100
Jer Batt is a fair performer who has won once in five runs at Haydock and knows his way around this track from stall one. He has placed four times from eight starts on soft ground without winning and holds his form well at this trip with three wins from 29 attempts. Usually held up, he will be looking to produce his effort late in what is expected to be a strongly-run race. The David & Nicola Barron yard posts a 14% strike rate at Haydock from 37 runs and Callum Rodriguez, who has a strong 19% strike rate and positive A/E of 1.14 at the venue, takes the ride. His course form and ability to race off the pace make him well suited to the likely shape.
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4Lipsink53/100
Lipsink is a fair performer who has been in and out this year and arrives in decent form after a second last time. He has won on soft ground and at this trip though his record at five furlongs is modest overall. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the 9-year-old should relish the strong pace that is forecast. Michael Appleby operates at a 9% strike rate at Haydock from 195 runs while Alistair Rawlinson rides. This is the horse's first run at Haydock, which adds an element of uncertainty, yet his recent form and proven soft-ground ability keep him firmly in the mix.
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5Spoof50/100
Spoof is a fair sprinter who has won nine times at this trip and handles soft ground well with two wins and five places from nine starts. Placed twice from four runs at Haydock without winning, his recent form of 487-18 shows he can still be competitive at this level. The 11-year-old is another who is usually held up and will be hoping the strong pace materialises to suit his style. Kevin & Lauren Frost have only had one previous runner at the track so far, which is too small a sample to judge, while Jack Mitchell, who boasts a 17% strike rate at Haydock, takes the mount. His course placings and excellent record on soft ground mean he cannot be discounted.
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6Changeofmind49/100
Changeofmind is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip but has struggled to land a blow in three runs at Haydock. He has shown some competitiveness on soft ground without winning and his recent form of 018762 suggests he can be thereabouts without necessarily threatening the principals. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds a note of caution.
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7Boston Dan49/100
Boston Dan is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in recent starts. He has won over this trip but his only soft-ground run brought no joy and first-time headgear is now reached for. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at Haydock adds no encouragement.
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8Creative Queen48/100
Creative Queen is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and consistent placings. She has already shown she handles soft ground, winning on it at the first attempt, and has placed over today's 5f trip. Haggas maintains a strong 26% strike rate at Haydock while Fallon rides.
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9Parisiac47/100
Parisiac is a fair sort who has been in decent nick this year with two seconds from his last five starts. He has won seven times at this trip yet his record here at Haydock is modest with three runs producing no better than eighth. The trainer operates at a 10% strike rate on this track while the 5 lb claimer is an unknown quantity.
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10Moonstone Boy47/100
Moonstone Boy is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of ordinary efforts. He has run twice at Haydock without placing and drops back to 5f today where he has won four times from 28 starts though his recent efforts at the trip have been poor. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at the track from 188 runs.
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11Accrual45/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip from 18 attempts and showed his best recent effort when winning at Musselburgh last month. He has run twice here without winning, finishing third on his most recent visit, and has failed to place in two runs on soft ground. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Haydock from a large sample adds a note of caution.
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12American Bay39/100
American Bay is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and has never won or placed from two runs at Haydock. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track adds little confidence from the wide draw in stall 12. Has won over today's trip but is unproven on soft ground.
KTB verdict
Secret Mistral is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with three wins from 16 starts at Haydock and a strong record on soft ground, he arrives in reasonable form and his prominent run-style should ensure he is ideally placed if the anticipated strong pace materialises. The selection has the course-and-distance profile and the trainer-jockey combination to take advantage of any late collapse. His main dangers are likely to come from the hold-up brigade, with Mighty Magnus and Jer Batt both boasting strong recent form and the right run-style for the shape, while Lipsink and Spoof cannot be ruled out if the race falls apart late.
KTB Selection Secret Mistral
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 4 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Mistral | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Mighty Magnus | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Jer Batt | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Lipsink | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Spoof | 22/1 | Bet Victor |
| Changeofmind | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Boston Dan | 28/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Creative Queen | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Parisiac | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Moonstone Boy | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Accrual | 7/1 | Midnite |
| American Bay | 11/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:47 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Haydock?
Secret Mistral has won here three times from 16 starts.
How does the strong pace shape affect the principals?
The strong pace is likely to favour hold-up horses such as Mighty Magnus, Jer Batt, Lipsink and Spoof, while Secret Mistral's front-running style will be tested.
Which runners have proven form on soft ground?
Secret Mistral has one win and two places from two runs on soft, Mighty Magnus has placed on his only soft-ground start, Jer Batt has placed four times from eight starts on soft, Lipsink has one win and four places from six starts on soft, Spoof has two wins and five places from nine starts on soft, and Creative Queen has won on soft at the first attempt.
Who are the two habitual front-runners in the field?
Secret Mistral and Accrual are the two horses whose run-style is to make the running or race prominently.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Haydock among those represented?
William Haggas has a 26% strike rate at Haydock from 614 runs.
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