5:02 Perth
This Class 4 Malcolm Group Handicap Chase at Perth over 2m7f180y on good ground brings together a competitive field of eight where the KTB numbers highlight a cluster of high-class performers. Sir Carnegie stands out with a top Fit rating of 76, supported by an RPR of 122, while several others sit in the 60s on Fit with RPRs between 117 and 123. The race features a strong pace likely to test stamina late, and course form at Perth will be a significant factor given several runners have proven records here.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is expected to be strong and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses. Inis Oirr and Ira Hayes are both noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace, while Muskerry Rock and Neon Diamond usually race handily. Sir Carnegie, Wasdell Dundalk, Settle Down Jill and Buy Some Time are all typically held up and produce their effort late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart to the benefit of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sir Carnegie KTB Selection76/100RPR 122 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Muskerry Rock69/100RPR 118 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Wasdell Dundalk66/100RPR 122 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Inis Oirr66/100RPR 123 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Settle Down Jill63/100RPR 117 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Ira Hayes61/100RPR 122 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Neon Diamond60/100RPR 119 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Buy Some Time46/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
The contenders
Sir Carnegie KTB Fit 76/100
Sir Carnegie is high-class on these figures with an RPR of 122 and arrives in top form after two wins in his last three starts from recent figures of 42-311. He has already won over this trip and at Perth itself from one win in three starts at the track. The yard maintains a strong 32% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.2 from 28 runs, and the jockey has a 26% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.34 from 106 rides. Good ground looks fine given his record of two wins from ten starts on it with four other placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is expected to come home strongly if the strong pace materialises as anticipated.
Muskerry Rock KTB Fit 69/100
Muskerry Rock arrives in solid form after a win last time from recent figures of 0338-1 and holds a smart RPR of 118. He has won over today's trip though he is 0-3 on good ground with no win or place. This will be his first start at Perth and the yard has no recorded runners here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he could be involved in the strong pace that is anticipated. With the non-runner jockey situation his participation remains to be confirmed but on pure figures he remains a live contender.
Wasdell Dundalk KTB Fit 66/100
Wasdell Dundalk brings high-class form to the race with an RPR of 122 and has won four times from 17 starts at Perth. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m4f yet boasts five wins from 18 starts at this distance and five wins from 25 runs on good ground with nine other placed efforts. The trainer's 9% strike rate from 469 runs at the track with an A/E of 0.96 is modest but the horse's course record and strong ratings give him a solid chance. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is suited by the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 13% strike rate from 52 runs with an A/E of 1.06.
Inis Oirr KTB Fit 66/100
Inis Oirr arrives in solid form after a win and a recent second from figures of 5591-2, backed by a high-class RPR of 123. He has won over this trip and at Perth from one win in four starts at the track. His record on good ground is only modest with one win from six starts and two other placed efforts. The yard’s 8% strike-rate at the track from 73 runs with an A/E of 0.63 is another negative to weigh up, though the claiming jockey has a 19% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.48 from 16 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to be prominent in a race where the pace is likely to be strong.
The rest of the field
Settle Down JillKTB Fit 63/100
Settle Down Jill is a smart performer who arrives in form after a recent win from figures of P523-1 and has already shown she handles this trip. She has won twice on good ground from 11 attempts with four other placed efforts. First time at Perth for both horse and trainer but that is taken as neutral given her overall profile. Usually held up and producing her effort late she should be suited by the strong pace.
Ira HayesKTB Fit 61/100
Ira Hayes arrives in solid nick after a win and a recent second from figures of 4301-2, backed by a high-class RPR of 122 that marks him as one of the best horses in the field on paper. He has placed without winning at today's trip and showed he handles good ground when third on it last year with one placed effort from one run. Dropping in class, the yard has a 20% strike rate at Perth from 44 runs though this is the horse's first visit to the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace he will be to the fore in what is likely to be a strong gallop.
Neon DiamondKTB Fit 60/100
Neon Diamond is a smart performer who arrives in decent form having shown his best when finishing second over three miles at Ayr in January from recent figures of 54255-. He drops back in trip to a distance he has won at though he is 0 from 2 on good ground and has never been to Perth before. Gordon Elliott has a strong 28% strike rate at the track from 808 runs with an A/E of 1 while Sean Bowen has a 32% strike rate at Perth. Usually races handily on or close to the lead he could play a part up front.
Buy Some TimeKTB Fit 46/100
Buy Some Time is a smart performer who has won twice from six runs at Perth and arrives in decent form after a solid second last time from figures of 7563-2. He has two wins from five starts at today's trip though he drops back from 3m2f, while he is 2-7 on good ground with four other placed efforts. The yard's modest 6% strike-rate here from 357 runs with an A/E of 0.61 is a negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late he should relish the strong pace.
KTB verdict
Sir Carnegie is the KTB Selection and looks to hold all the aces on these figures. High-class on an RPR of 122, he arrives in top form with two wins in his last three starts, has already won over this trip and at Perth, and his yard has a strong record at the track. The good ground is no issue on his record and his hold-up style is ideal for the strong pace that is likely. His main dangers are the course specialist Wasdell Dundalk with his excellent Perth record and high ratings, the in-form Inis Oirr who may make the running, and the high-class Ira Hayes who could also go forward.
KTB Selection Sir Carnegie
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:55 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sir Carnegie | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Wasdell Dundalk | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Inis Oirr | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Settle Down Jill | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Ira Hayes | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Neon Diamond | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Buy Some Time | 5/1 | CopyBet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:02 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Perth?
Wasdell Dundalk has won four times from 17 starts at Perth while Sir Carnegie, Inis Oirr and Buy Some Time have each won once at the track.
How does the strong pace shape affect the runners?
The strong pace is likely to collapse late and favour hold-up horses such as Sir Carnegie, Wasdell Dundalk, Settle Down Jill and Buy Some Time.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Perth in this race?
Mickey Bowen has a 32% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.2 from 28 runs while Gordon Elliott has a 28% strike rate from 808 runs.
Who are the front-runners in the field?
Inis Oirr and Ira Hayes both tend to make the running or race on the pace while Muskerry Rock and Neon Diamond usually race handily.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Ira Hayes is dropping in class.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies