2:25 Goodwood
A small but interesting field of six two-year-olds lines up for the British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes over six furlongs on soft ground at Goodwood. With no established leader in the race and the KTB numbers highlighting a lack of early pace, this steadily-run, tactical affair places a premium on being handy. The top two in the KTB Fit ranking are separated by just a single point, underlining how competitive the principals look on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and confidence in the forecast is low, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being on the pace or handy should pay dividends. Most of the field have shown a tendency to race held up or produce their effort late, so the key question is which horse can best take advantage of a potential crawl in the early fractions. With draw one and six bookending the small field, the inside rail may prove an asset if the leaders are not pressed.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1The Harv KTB Selection59/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
- 2My A'Ali Baba58/100RPR 77 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Bulletsnap51/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
- 4Asgar43/100RPR 68 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Mobadir40/100RPR 61 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Oakford35/100RPR 62 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
The Harv KTB Fit 59/100
The Harv lines up with a KTB Fit of 59 and is the clear selection. Costing a significant sum as a breeze-up purchase and a half-brother to a useful sprinting juvenile, he arrives with a neutral ability score as no RPR is available yet. Connections are in good order with their two-year-old newcomers, and the trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at Goodwood from just six runs with an A/E of 2.19. Oisin Murphy takes the ride, himself boasting a 16% strike rate at the track from 509 rides with an A/E of 0.9. By Ten Sovereigns, whose overall win rate is 12% from 1390 runners, he has no course win to his name but everything about his profile suggests a bright debut prospect. As with all newcomers the race itself will reveal more than the paper form can.
My A'Ali Baba KTB Fit 58/100
My A'Ali Baba holds a KTB Fit of 58 and brings the only winning form into the race. He showed little for the first half of his Chepstow debut before staying on strongly to score over this trip on good to soft ground, posting an RPR of 77 and TS of 58. That bare form reads only fair and he now carries a penalty at this higher level on soft ground on which he remains unproven. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he faces a steadily-run affair that may not play to his strengths. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Goodwood from 177 runs with an A/E of 0.65, while Saffie Osborne has a 12% strike rate here from 106 rides with an A/E of 1. Trainer and jockey combined show 4 wins from 47 rides with an A/E of 0.73 and a loss of £9.00.
Bulletsnap KTB Fit 51/100
Bulletsnap is a newcomer rated with a KTB Fit of 51. By Minzaal out of a French Listed-placed 7.5f-8.5f winner who scored at two and on the all-weather, he has no RPR or TS figures available and therefore carries a neutral ability score. William Haggas has a solid 19% strike rate at Goodwood from 505 runs with an A/E of 0.99, and Tom Marquand is in the saddle with a 12% strike rate at the track from 438 rides and an A/E of 0.91. The trainer and jockey combination shows 431 wins from 1975 rides with an A/E of 0.93. With no racecourse form to go on and low data confidence the betting will tell the tale for this well-connected stable runner.
Asgar KTB Fit 43/100
Asgar has a KTB Fit of 43 and showed modest ability when finishing ninth of 15 on debut in a Newbury maiden last month, earning an RPR of 68 and TS of 63. The form marks him down as a fair rather than high-class prospect at this stage and he faces no easier task dropping into this Goodwood class 4. Clive Cox has a 10% strike rate at the track from 451 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while David Probert has a 10% strike rate from 462 rides here with an identical A/E of 0.87. The pair combined show 14 wins from 119 rides with an A/E of 0.89 and a small profit of £2.24. He has no experience on soft ground and no course form on record.
The rest of the field
MobadirKTB Fit 40/100
Mobadir has a KTB Fit of 40. He showed very little on his Salisbury debut over 5f when he dropped right out to finish last of six, posting an RPR of 61. Stepping up to 6f now is an unknown that could suit on pedigree while he is dropping in class. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Goodwood from 179 runs with an A/E of 0.73. He usually races prominently and has no experience on soft ground.
OakfordKTB Fit 35/100
Oakford has a KTB Fit of 35. He showed very little on debut when fifth of six at Salisbury over 5f, recording an RPR of 62. Stepping up to 6f today asks a fresh question while the yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Goodwood from 114 runs with an A/E of 0.73. With only one run on the board and low data confidence this remains very much a watching brief. He is usually held up and has no experience on soft ground.
KTB verdict
The Harv is the KTB Selection. Bred to sprint, backed by strong connections in form with their juveniles and a trainer who has an excellent record at Goodwood, he has all the ingredients to make a winning debut. The race will tell us far more than the paper can, but the combination of pedigree, stable and jockey makes him the one to beat. My A'Ali Baba brings winning form but carries a penalty on unproven soft ground, while Bulletsnap and Asgar represent strong yards yet need to improve on what is known or unknown.
KTB Selection The Harv
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:58 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| The Harv | 2/1 | Bet Victor |
| My A'Ali Baba | 10/3 | Coral |
| Bulletsnap | 3/1 | William Hill |
| Asgar | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Mobadir | 8/1 | Midnite |
| Oakford | 10/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 Goodwood. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Goodwood racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Goodwood?
The Harv's trainer has a 33% strike rate at Goodwood with an A/E of 2.19 from 6 runs.
How does the lack of early pace affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are unproven on soft ground?
My A'Ali Baba, Asgar, Mobadir and Oakford have no runs on soft and are unproven on the ground.
Who represents the strongest jockey record at the track among the principals?
Oisin Murphy has a 16% strike rate at Goodwood with an A/E of 0.9 from 509 rides.
What recent form does the second highest rated horse bring?
My A'Ali Baba has recent form figures of 1, having won at Chepstow over this trip on good to soft.
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