1:42 Navan
A compact but high-class field of seven lines up for the 1.42 Navan handicap over the minimum trip on good ground. The official ratings are tightly bunched, with four principals rated between 105 and 109 on RPR, while the KTB Fit Scores separate them only marginally from 59 down to 46. Strong pace is anticipated, which could play into the hands of those able to come from off the speed, yet several front-runners and prominent runners mean the shape will be tested early.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Namiid and Cuban Grey, plus prominent runners Erosandpsyche and Bodhi Bear, the pace shape is strong and the early fractions could be brisk. That intensity increases the chance of the race collapsing late, which would play to the hold-up performers such as The Highway Rat, Kerdos and Stag Night. The key question is whether the pace-setters can dictate matters or whether the race will fall apart in the final furlong, allowing the closers to pounce.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Namiid KTB Selection59/100RPR 105 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2The Highway Rat58/100RPR 107 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Cuban Grey58/100RPR 106 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Kerdos57/100RPR 109 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Erosandpsyche51/100RPR 107 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Stag Night51/100RPR 101 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Bodhi Bear46/100RPR 100 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Namiid KTB Fit 59/100
Namiid is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He brings a consistent profile with three wins from ten runs and strong recent form including a win last time out, backed by figures of RPR 105 and Topspeed 101. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will be significant given the anticipated strong pace. He is competitive on good ground without having won from five starts, and has scored once from four runs at Navan. First-time headgear is the unknown, while the trainer has a 12% strike rate at the track from 241 runs and the jockey has a 6% strike rate from 33 rides.
The Highway Rat KTB Fit 58/100
The Highway Rat is a smart performer who has won two of his three starts at Navan and drops back to the 5f trip where he has six career wins. Rated RPR 107, his recent form is a shade patchy and he has only one win from ten runs on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the strong pace likely here. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate at Navan from a large sample of 327 runs, while the jockey has a 4% strike rate from 24 rides at the track. He has won twice from three starts at the course overall.
Cuban Grey KTB Fit 58/100
Cuban Grey is a smart performer on his day with an RPR of 106 and seven wins at this trip from 46 attempts. He has been placed three times from five runs at Navan without winning and his record on good ground reads one win from nine starts. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be right up there early in what is expected to be a strong pace. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Navan from 31 runs, though the jockey has a 10% strike rate from 101 rides at the track. His course form reads fifth, eighth, fourth, third and second.
Kerdos KTB Fit 57/100
Kerdos is a smart performer who has run to an RPR of 109 and shown Topspeed of 74. He has won twice over this trip but his recent form of 5-2968 suggests he is not quite at his peak right now, and first-time headgear is now tried. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the strong pace expected. The trainer has only three runs at Navan which is too small a sample to judge while the horse makes his first appearance here. Colin Keane takes the ride and has a 14% strike rate at the track from 561 rides.
The rest of the field
ErosandpsycheKTB Fit 51/100
Erosandpsyche remains a smart performer on his best days with an RPR of 107 but has been well below that level in three starts this year. He has won four times over today's 5f trip yet is dropping back from 6f on his latest run and showed little spark when ninth of 11 over course and distance on his only previous visit to Navan. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds a further negative.
Stag NightKTB Fit 51/100
Stag Night is a useful performer who won over this trip on his only previous visit to Navan. He arrives in decent form with three placed efforts from his last four starts and holds solid figures at this level. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace. The trainer has a modest 8% strike rate here from a big sample though the jockey is a known positive at the track.
Bodhi BearKTB Fit 46/100
Bodhi Bear is a useful performer who won over C&D on his only previous visit to Navan. Dropping back to 5f looks a sensible move after a 6f run last time and he has two wins from four starts at the trip. Usually racing handily, he will be prominent early. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at the track from a decent-sized sample.
KTB verdict
Namiid is the KTB Selection. He brings the strongest recent form, a win over course and distance, and the ability to set the pace in a race where the fractions could be testing. The first-time headgear adds an element of interest on ground where he has been competitive if winless. The Highway Rat, with two course wins and a hold-up style that suits the shape, is the most obvious danger, while Cuban Grey and Kerdos cannot be dismissed on their peak figures.
KTB Selection Namiid
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:28 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Namiid | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| The Highway Rat | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Cuban Grey | 17/2 | Bet Victor |
| Kerdos | 7/1 | Bet Victor |
| Erosandpsyche | 11/1 | BetMGM |
| Bodhi Bear | 10/3 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 1:42 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Namiid and Cuban Grey are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Erosandpsyche and Bodhi Bear also likely to be prominent.
How does the strong pace shape affect the principals?
The Highway Rat and Kerdos, both hold-up horses, are favoured by the likelihood of a strong pace that could collapse late, while Namiid and Cuban Grey will be setting that pace.
What is the course record of the top two in the KTB Fit Scores?
Namiid has won once from four starts at Navan, while The Highway Rat has won two of his three starts here.
Which trainers have the best strike rates at Navan in this field?
J A Stack has a 14% strike rate at Navan from 83 runs, while J P Murtagh has a 12% strike rate from 241 runs; Patrick J McKenna and Stephen Thorne are both 0% from small samples.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Namiid and Kerdos are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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