2:52 Navan
A competitive 10-runner Navan Handicap over 5f180y on good ground sees a field of fair handicappers, several of whom arrive in reasonable form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 55 and 58, underlining how little separates them on paper. Official ratings cluster around the mid-80s, promising a genuinely competitive race where recent form, trip suitability and course records will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely run pace shape expected and high confidence in that assessment, Gerrit's Gem is likely to take them along from his draw in seven, pressed by several prominent runners including Ocean's Breath and I Bid You Ajou. This sets up a fair test that should suit those racing on or close to the pace, while hold-up types such as Greek Flower, Jon Riggens and several others will need to time their efforts precisely off the strong gallop. The key question is whether the prominent brigade can maintain their advantage or if the race will fall to a well-timed closer in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Gerrit's Gem58/100RPR 85 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Ocean's Breath KTB Selection58/100RPR 86 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Collective Power56/100RPR 85 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Aurora Nova55/100RPR 85 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Greek Flower55/100RPR 86 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Nouvel Espoir53/100RPR 85 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7I Bid You Ajou49/100RPR 83 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Jon Riggens44/100RPR 82 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Alfred Tennyson43/100RPR 83 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Clonmacash41/100RPR 83 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Gerrit's Gem KTB Fit 58/100
Gerrit's Gem is a fair performer who has dropped to a handy mark but has looked out of sorts on his last two starts. He has won on good ground and at today's trip, though his record at this distance reads just 2-9 overall. The six-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and will be prominent from draw seven. Trainer J G Coogan has a modest 7% strike rate at Navan from 91 runs while jockey Terry Casey has an 8% strike rate here from 12 rides. Recent form of 924-00 is uninspiring and the lack of course form adds a further note of caution.
Ocean's Breath KTB Fit 58/100
Ocean's Breath is a fair performer who has won two of his last three starts, most recently a 7f handicap at Fairyhouse on Friday. The three-year-old drops back to 5f today where he is 1-4 and has placed both times at this track. He usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence from a wide draw in ten. Trainer G M Lyons has a 12% strike rate at Navan from 659 runs and jockey Colin Keane has a 14% strike rate here from 561 rides. The colt has an RPR of 86, showed he acts on good ground with one win from two starts, and his prominent style should be ideally suited to the expected pace.
Collective Power KTB Fit 56/100
Collective Power is a fair handicapper who has run to form on his last two starts and won over this trip in the past. The eight-year-old has won at Navan from six runs here and acts on good ground having scored twice from 13 attempts. He typically settles in midfield with high confidence from draw three. Trainer Edward Lynam has an 8% strike rate at Navan from 417 runs while the jockey has no record at the track. Recent form of -56392 shows consistency and his course success makes him respected despite the trainer-jockey combination's 0 from 5 record.
Aurora Nova KTB Fit 55/100
Aurora Nova is a fair handicapper who ran well when third at the Curragh last month but has been below that level since. The seven-year-old has a patchy record at this track from three runs and the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate from 54 runs at Navan offers little encouragement. She typically settles in midfield and is dropping back to 5f where she has won in the past. With four wins from 18 starts on good ground she handles the surface and the trainer-jockey combination shows a 14% strike rate from 21 runs together.
Greek Flower KTB Fit 55/100
Greek Flower is a fair handicapper who has run to form on her last two starts and won over this trip earlier in her career. The seven-year-old has won here from three runs at Navan and has placed four times from 12 starts on good ground, though she is 0-12 on this surface without a victory. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with high confidence from draw five. Trainer John James Feane has a modest 5% strike rate from 85 runs at the track while jockey Ronan Whelan has a 7% strike rate here from 349 rides. Her RPR of 86 and recent form of 065-36 keep her in the mix.
The rest of the field
Nouvel EspoirKTB Fit 53/100
Nouvel Espoir is a fair performer who has won once and placed on three other occasions from nine runs at Navan. He has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts and handles good ground, though he is yet to win on it from ten attempts. Usually held up, the step back up to this trip poses a fresh question.
I Bid You AjouKTB Fit 49/100
I Bid You Ajou is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and ran well when third over course and distance on his only visit here. Dropping back to 5f is a plus as he has three wins from nine starts at the trip though he was well held last time over further. Trainer's modest 2% strike rate at Navan from 42 runs is a concern.
Jon RiggensKTB Fit 44/100
Jon Riggens is a fair performer who has won over this trip in the past but is now 0-17 on good ground and was well held on his last three starts. He has won once from four runs at Navan and drops back to 5f having tried 6.5f last time. Trainer Edward Lynam has an 8% strike rate from 417 runs here.
Alfred TennysonKTB Fit 43/100
Alfred Tennyson is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately and ran respectably over this course when finishing fourth and fifth. He drops back to 5f today having been placed at the trip earlier in his career though his last run came over 6.5f. The trainer’s modest 6% strike rate at Navan is a negative.
ClonmacashKTB Fit 41/100
Clonmacash is a fair handicapper who has been running creditably without winning of late. He has a modest record on this track and the trainer's 5% strike rate from 304 runs at Navan is another negative. Steps up in trip today having won twice at this distance in the past.
KTB verdict
Ocean's Breath stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has won two of his last three starts, most recently at Fairyhouse on Friday, he drops back to a trip where he has placed both times at Navan and his prominent running style looks ideally suited to the expected genuinely-run pace. The three-year-old brings solid RPR figures and the trainer-jockey combination's record at the track adds confidence. Main dangers include Collective Power, who has course form and has run to form on his last two starts, and Greek Flower, who has won here and shown consistency of late, while Gerrit's Gem may make the running but needs to bounce back from two poor efforts.
KTB Selection Ocean's Breath
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:52 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit's Gem | 28/1 | BetTom |
| Ocean's Breath | 15/8 | Bet365 |
| Collective Power | 10/1 | BresBet |
| Aurora Nova | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Greek Flower | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Nouvel Espoir | 15/2 | BresBet |
| I Bid You Ajou | 9/2 | BresBet |
| Jon Riggens | 11/2 | BresBet |
| Alfred Tennyson | 22/1 | BresBet |
| Clonmacash | 16/1 | BresBet |
This is the narrative read of the 2:52 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to make the running?
Gerrit's Gem tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many wins has Ocean's Breath had at Navan?
Ocean's Breath has placed both times at this track but has no win from two runs here.
Which horse has the best recent form among the principals?
Ocean's Breath has won two of his last three starts with form figures 24-191.
Which runners have previously won at Navan?
Collective Power, Greek Flower, Nouvel Espoir and Jon Riggens have all won at the track.
What is the expected pace shape for this race?
Genuinely run with high confidence — a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types.
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