1:22 Punchestown
This Bermingham Cameras Novice Chase over 2m4f55y at Punchestown on good to yielding ground brings together a compact but high-quality field of five. The KTB Fit Scores identify Supersundae as the clear top pick on 66, ahead of Sky Lord on 55 and Uno Me I Like My T on 52, with the remaining pair not far behind. Recent form and official ratings suggest a contest where class is well represented but questions remain around trip, ground and track form for several runners.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given that three of the five runners are habitual front-runners. Supersundae, Sky Lord and Ma Jacks Hill are all likely to contest the lead or race prominently, which could set the race up for a late collapse. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Uno Me I Like My T and Jolie Jewel. The key question is whether the pace holds or if the hold-up horses can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Supersundae KTB Selection66/100RPR 150 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Sky Lord55/100RPR 148 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Uno Me I Like My T52/100No RPR available — neutral score applied
- 4Jolie Jewel51/100RPR 138 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Ma Jacks Hill46/100RPR 135 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Supersundae KTB Fit 66/100
Supersundae arrives with the strongest KTB Fit Score of 66 and is the clear selection. A high-class performer who posted an RPR of 150 last season, he has already placed over this trip and steps up from 2m having shown he handles good to yielding ground with a win and a place from two starts. The W P Mullins yard posts a 23% strike rate at Punchestown with an A/E of 1.01 from 2842 runs, though the 7lb claimer Anna McGuinness is operating at a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.32 from 33 rides. He tends to make the running or race prominently and only once-raced at this track where he finished fifth. His recent form of /531-2 underlines consistent ability at this level.
Sky Lord KTB Fit 55/100
Sky Lord is rated a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 148 yet his KTB Fit Score of 55 places him second in the rankings. He has been below that level in recent runs, finishing no better than third on his last three starts, and has never won or placed in three runs at Punchestown. His only previous try on good to yielding ground showed little, while stepping up in trip for the first time in a while asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent form has been modest. The Henry De Bromhead stable has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 from 994 runs, and jockey Mike O'Connor is on 4% with an A/E of 0.45 from 98 rides. As a front-runner he is sure to be involved in the expected strong pace.
Uno Me I Like My T KTB Fit 52/100
Uno Me I Like My T is a 4-year-old with a KTB Fit Score of 52 who has shown very little in three runs under rules and was pulled up or well beaten in her completed starts. No RPR is available and she holds a neutral score on ability. The Cian Collins yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Punchestown from 60 runs while jockey Paddy Cleary rides at an 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 2.68 from 11 rides. She is held up and usually produces her effort late, which could be an advantage if the strong pace collapses. With only one prior run at this trip, no course form and no runs on good to yielding ground she remains unproven in several respects.
The rest of the field
Jolie JewelKTB Fit 51/100
Jolie Jewel is a high-class performer on her day with a best RPR of 138 and has shown enough in recent runs to remain competitive at this level, posting a KTB Fit Score of 51. She steps up in trip today having won twice over this distance in the past though her latest efforts came over shorter and her record on good to yielding is only modest with one placed effort from four starts. The Brian M McMahon stable holds a 7% strike rate from 69 runs at Punchestown while the horse herself has twice run here without placing. She is held up and usually produces her effort late.
Ma Jacks HillKTB Fit 46/100
Ma Jacks Hill is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 135 and has shown enough in recent runs to remain competitive at this level, recording a KTB Fit Score of 46. He has course experience here though he finished 11th on his only visit and is only 1 from 3 on good to yielding ground without winning. The trip looks about right having placed once in five starts at this distance. Gordon Elliott's 13% strike rate at Punchestown from 1800 runs is solid, though the combination with Kevin Sexton shows an 8% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.78. As a front-runner he will be to the fore in a race with a strong pace likely.
KTB verdict
Supersundae stands out as the KTB Selection with the highest Fit Score and a profile that fits the race well. His RPR of 150 last season, proven ability over the trip and suitability for the ground give him the strongest case, especially as he can set or track the strong pace. Sky Lord possesses similar high-class ability on his best days but recent modest form and a poor record at Punchestown count against him. Jolie Jewel and Ma Jacks Hill are competitive on their peak figures and could feature if the leaders fold late, while Uno Me I Like My T has too much to find on what she has shown so far.
KTB Selection Supersundae
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 05:58 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Supersundae | 8/15 | Bet365 |
| Uno Me I Like My T | 150/1 | BetMGM |
| Jolie Jewel | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ma Jacks Hill | 8/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 1:22 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Supersundae, Sky Lord and Ma Jacks Hill are all habitual front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How does Supersundae's ability compare to the rest of the field?
Supersundae has the highest RPR in the race at 150, ahead of Sky Lord's 148, Jolie Jewel's 138 and Ma Jacks Hill's 135, while Uno Me I Like My T has no RPR available.
Who holds the strongest trainer record at Punchestown in this race?
W P Mullins has a 23% strike rate at Punchestown with an A/E of 1.01 from 2842 runs, the best of the trainers involved.
Which runners are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late?
The hold-up horses Uno Me I Like My T and Jolie Jewel are suited by a strong pace that could collapse late.
What is Uno Me I Like My T's record on good to yielding ground?
Uno Me I Like My T has no runs on good to yielding ground and is therefore unproven on the surface.
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