4:52 Punchestown
The TRM Supporting Every Stride Of The Journey Handicap Hurdle at Punchestown brings together a competitive field of 13 over 2m7f116y on good to yielding ground. Several runners arrive with high-class ratings in the 120s, yet recent form is mixed and the step up in trip for a number of them adds an extra layer of uncertainty. KTB's Fit ratings identify Morell River as the clear top pick on 66, with Ottoman Style, Accustomed, Jackmoon and William Tell completing the principals in a race that looks a genuine test.
How the race shapes up
A genuinely-run contest is expected with Accustomed likely to take them along from the front, pressed by the prominent runners Jackmoon, William Tell, Streets Of Doyen and Good World. Several mid-division types including the selection Morell River, Ottoman Style and Maverick Mack will settle just off that pace while Falcon Eight and Work Place are hold-up performers. The key question is whether the front-runners can maintain their effort over this new trip or if the midfield closers will be better placed to strike in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Morell River KTB Selection66/100RPR 123 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Ottoman Style60/100RPR 124 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Accustomed57/100RPR 126 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Jackmoon56/100RPR 124 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5William Tell56/100RPR 127 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Falcon Eight56/100RPR 121 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Beyond Your Dreams55/100RPR 120 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Smackwater Jack54/100RPR 123 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Streets Of Doyen54/100RPR 123 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Good World54/100RPR 125 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Juke Hill54/100RPR 116 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 12Work Place48/100RPR 108 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 13Maverick Mack46/100RPR 115 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Morell River KTB Fit 66/100
Morell River stands out on figures with an RPR of 123 and arrives in excellent order following a recent win that was backed up by a solid placed effort beforehand. He has course experience at Punchestown, though he could only manage sixth on his sole visit, and now steps up markedly in trip which poses a fresh question. Colin Bowe holds a 15% strike rate at the track from 109 runs with an A/E of 1.4 while the horse is 1-3 on good to yielding ground. Ricky Doyle takes the ride and the yard's overall record when teaming up is a solid 6/37 with an A/E of 1.23. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well positioned to launch a challenge if the leaders go hard in what is set to be a genuinely-run race.
Ottoman Style KTB Fit 60/100
Ottoman Style possesses high-class ability on his day as confirmed by an RPR of 124, yet he arrives with a modest recent profile that includes two pulled-ups and a fourth from his last four starts. This will be his first appearance at Punchestown and he has never won over this trip in two attempts, though he has shown he can be competitive on good to yielding ground with a placed effort from two starts. Dermot A McLoughlin operates at a 7% strike rate here from 184 runs with an A/E of 1.05, while Liam McKenna has a 0% strike rate from 87 rides at the track. Settling typically in midfield, he will need to rediscover his best form if he is to figure prominently in a race that should be run at a true gallop.
Accustomed KTB Fit 57/100
Accustomed boasts high-class ratings of 126 RPR and 118 Topspeed and has produced solid placed efforts over this course, including a second and a third from four runs at Punchestown. He has been competitive on good to yielding ground without managing a win from five starts and now steps up markedly in trip which asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 48 Punchestown runs with an A/E of 0.78 is a negative, as is Harry Sexton's 3% strike rate from 37 rides here. Likely to make the running or race prominently, he could set a strong pace in a genuinely-run affair but stamina concerns may surface late on.
Jackmoon KTB Fit 56/100
Jackmoon is a high-class performer on his figures with an RPR of 124 and has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his last two completed starts. He has course experience here with a fourth on his most recent visit though he also pulled up on his other run at Punchestown. J P Flavin has a 0% strike rate from 18 runs at the track with an A/E of 0 while the 7lb claimer Jordan Canavan takes the ride. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be involved in the early battle and has placed once from one run on good to yielding ground. His consistency at the trip makes him one to consider if he can overcome the trainer's poor record at the venue.
William Tell KTB Fit 56/100
William Tell is a high-class performer on the figures with an RPR of 127 and Topspeed of 118 from just five career runs. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance once from two attempts and his recent form of 2116-9 includes strong wins at shorter trips. David Harry Kelly has a 5% strike rate from 107 runs at Punchestown with an A/E of 0.78 while the 7lb claimer Peter Smithers takes the ride. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, he could be in the thick of it early but has only one run on good to yielding ground which yielded no win or place. His raw ability suggests he remains a major player if the longer trip suits.
The rest of the field
Falcon EightKTB Fit 56/100
Falcon Eight is a high-class performer on his day with a solid RPR of 121 and has placed efforts at this track including a second, though his most recent efforts have been poor with a fall and a pulled-up effort. He has won over today's trip in the past, the yard has a 13% strike rate here from 284 runs and he has placed on this sort of ground.
Beyond Your DreamsKTB Fit 55/100
Beyond Your Dreams is high-class on the figures with an RPR of 120 yet has failed to land a blow in two runs at this track and looks exposed after 16 starts. He steps up markedly in trip on ground he has never tried, first-time headgear is applied, and the combination plus poor course efforts make him hard to fancy.
Smackwater JackKTB Fit 54/100
Smackwater Jack remains a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 123, has won at this trip and at Punchestown itself, yet his recent form of 5470-9 is patchy and the 12-year-old is now 0-8 since his last success. The yard's 4% strike rate from 196 runs at this track is a clear negative.
Streets Of DoyenKTB Fit 54/100
Streets Of Doyen is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 123 but arrives here on the back of a poor string of runs including a pulled-up effort last time. He has placed once from four runs at Punchestown, has won six times from 21 starts at this trip, though he is 0-3 on good to yielding ground and the trainer operates at a 4% strike rate from 214 runs at this track.
Good WorldKTB Fit 54/100
Good World is a high-class performer on his day with a solid 125 RPR and has won at today's trip in the past. He has placed once from four runs at Punchestown and holds a respectable record on good to yielding ground with two wins and three places from eight starts, yet the yard's modest 3% strike rate at this track is a negative while the step back up in trip asks a fresh question.
Juke HillKTB Fit 54/100
Juke Hill is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip. He has been off since a below-par effort on heavy ground in January but the yard know this place inside out, the jockey has a solid record here too, and the going is an unknown on just four runs.
Work PlaceKTB Fit 48/100
Work Place is a smart performer on ratings but has been well beaten on all seven starts and first-time headgear is now fitted as the only remaining hope. He steps up in trip having failed to make the frame over shorter, has no runs on good to yielding ground, and the trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 51 runs at Punchestown.
Maverick MackKTB Fit 46/100
Maverick Mack is a smart performer on his best day with RPR 115 and Topspeed 102 to his name. He has been below that level in two starts this year and was well held over 2m4f on his previous attempt at a distance beyond 2m, though the trainer has a solid 13% strike rate from 1800 runs at Punchestown.
KTB verdict
Morell River is the KTB Selection and looks to hold all the aces on the balance of his recent win, high-class RPR of 123 and the positive trainer record at Punchestown. He should settle nicely in midfield in a race that is set to be run at a true gallop, allowing him to deliver his challenge at the right time. The main dangers are the other high-class performers in the field, notably William Tell who brings an even higher RPR and has won at the trip, and Accustomed who may try to make all. Jackmoon and Ottoman Style cannot be ruled out either if they return to their best, but the selection looks to have the strongest profile.
KTB Selection Morell River
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:05 UTC, 7 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Morell River | 7/2 | Midnite |
| Ottoman Style | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Accustomed | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Jackmoon | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| William Tell | 15/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Falcon Eight | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Beyond Your Dreams | 11/1 | Midnite |
| Smackwater Jack | 50/1 | Bet Victor |
| Streets Of Doyen | 25/1 | Midnite |
| Good World | 15/2 | Bet Victor |
| Juke Hill | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Work Place | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Maverick Mack | 7/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip and has course experience at Punchestown?
Morell River, who ran sixth on his sole visit here.
Who is the only front-runner in the field?
Accustomed, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runner has first-time headgear and is stepping up markedly in trip on untried ground?
Beyond Your Dreams.
How many wins has the trainer of the selection recorded at Punchestown from 109 runs?
15% strike rate.
Which horse has won at this trip in the past but has a modest recent profile?
Falcon Eight.
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