5:48 Roscommon
The 5.48 at Roscommon is a competitive 2m4f Dermot Hughes Car Sales Handicap Hurdle on soft ground, featuring an 11-runner field where most contenders carry high-class ratings between 127 and 136. The KTB Fit Scores identify a clear top pick on 68, with four others tightly grouped between 57 and 60, underlining the depth on paper. Recent form is mixed across the principals, several of whom are stepping up or down in trip while questions remain about their effectiveness on this going and at the track.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape and medium confidence, the race is set to unfold at a true gallop. Sequoiaspirit is likely to take them along from the front, pressed by the prominent runners Stede Bonnet, Rakki and Lisnagar Fortune, while several mid-division and held-up types sit off that pace. The key question is whether the front-running selection can maintain his gallop on this soft surface against the challengers, or whether one of the stronger travellers will pick him up late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sequoiaspirit KTB Selection68/100RPR 132 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 2Sir Allen60/100RPR 131 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 3Avalo60/100RPR 128 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 4Stede Bonnet58/100RPR 133 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 5Rakki57/100RPR 127 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 6Lisnagar Fortune55/100RPR 130 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 7Ollie La Ba Ba54/100RPR 134 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 8Eye Of A Tiger53/100RPR 136 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 9Dreal Deal50/100RPR 129 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 10Billy Lee Swagger49/100RPR 128 — field comparison calculated at page load
- 11Simple Things45/100RPR 128 — field comparison calculated at page load
The contenders
Sequoiaspirit KTB Fit 68/100
Sequoiaspirit is the KTB Selection. He is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 132 and has already won on this track from a single visit. He steps up in trip today having been placed at 2m4f without winning and holds a placed effort from two runs on yielding to soft. The yard posts a solid 17% strike rate at Roscommon while the 7lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge. As a confirmed front-runner he is expected to set the pace in a genuinely-run race, which could play to his strengths if he sees it out. His course record and ability on softer ground make him the one to beat on these terms.
Sir Allen KTB Fit 60/100
Sir Allen brings a high-class rating backed by an RPR of 131 from 32 career runs yet his recent form of 4730 raises questions about current sharpness. He steps up from 1m6f to 2m4f where he has placed once in three starts without winning, and he has shown some competitiveness on yielding to soft ground with a placed effort from two runs. The trainer holds a 12 percent strike rate from 144 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is 11 percent from nine rides here, though this is the horse's first visit to the track. Settling in mid-division, he will look to come through the field once the early pace has been established. He remains a major player on his peak figures if he can rediscover his best.
Avalo KTB Fit 60/100
Avalo arrives in strong form with a recent win and solid placed efforts that match his high-class rating. He steps up in trip having already won over this distance though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a modest 9 percent strike rate at Roscommon while the jockey has had too few rides here to assess. Typically settling in midfield, he should be well placed to make a move as the race develops. His progressive profile and recent success mark him out as a live danger in a race where several others have ground or track doubts.
Stede Bonnet KTB Fit 58/100
Stede Bonnet is a high-class performer on the figures with an RPR of 133 and recent form that includes two wins. The yard has a solid 16% strike rate from 285 runs at Roscommon while the 5 lb claimer is still seeking his first success from nine rides here. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and makes his debut at the track but has placed once in two starts at this trip. Racing prominently, he is sure to be handy in a race that should be run at a proper clip. His ability cannot be doubted, but the combination of the ground and new venue adds an element of risk.
Rakki KTB Fit 57/100
Rakki is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 127 and has won here from his only previous visit to Roscommon. He has placed at this trip without winning and now tries first-time headgear after ending last season with two modest efforts. The yard's solid 22% strike rate at the track is a plus but Anna McGuinness has only three rides here and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. Usually racing handily, he should be prominent early on. The headgear is an interesting addition as he attempts to bounce back to his better form at a venue where he has already shown his liking.
The rest of the field
Lisnagar FortuneKTB Fit 55/100
Lisnagar Fortune is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 130 and solid placed form at today's trip. He steps up from 2m with no experience of yielding to soft ground and makes his first visit to Roscommon where both trainer and jockey operate at a 7% strike rate. Recent form has been modest and he now has to bounce back from a break.
Ollie La Ba BaKTB Fit 54/100
Ollie La Ba Ba is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 134 and solid recent form including a win and two places from his last five starts. He has placed on yielding to soft ground and at this trip though he is yet to win at either, while his sole run at Roscommon ended in a fall. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 28 runs here and the jockey's 8% from 24 rides add to the negatives for a horse who often finds one too good.
Eye Of A TigerKTB Fit 53/100
Eye Of A Tiger is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 136 and solid recent efforts including a third and a fall when competing at a higher level. He steps up in trip to 2m4f today having been placed at the distance before though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 98 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 11 rides here.
Dreal DealKTB Fit 50/100
Dreal Deal is a high-class performer on his best days with an RPR of 129 and has shown he handles this trip having won twice over it from 21 starts. He acts well on yielding to soft ground with three wins from four starts and was a solid second last time out. Trainer P J Rothwell has a modest 4% strike rate from 208 runs at Roscommon while jockey Shane O'Callaghan has a 9% strike rate from 11 rides here.
Billy Lee SwaggerKTB Fit 49/100
Billy Lee Swagger is a high-class performer on his best days with RPR 128 and Topspeed 120 to his name. He showed he can still produce when winning last time but has a poor record at this track and his trainer operates at just 4% strike rate here from 208 runs. Drops back in trip today having won over this distance before while the yielding to soft ground looks suitable on his 1-3 record.
Simple ThingsKTB Fit 45/100
Simple Things is a high-class performer on the figures with an RPR of 128 and has shown her ability by finishing runner-up in two of her last three starts over this trip. She has placed once from one run at today's distance though the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Roscommon and the jockey's 0% record from 17 rides here add some negatives. The going remains an unknown with only six career runs to date.
KTB verdict
Sequoiaspirit stands out as the KTB Selection. He boasts a course win from his only previous visit, an RPR of 132 that is right up there with the best in the field, and the right run-style to take advantage of a genuinely-run race on soft ground where he has shown competitiveness. The yard's record at Roscommon adds further confidence. His main dangers are the high-class Sir Allen and the in-form Avalo, both of whom have strong ratings and can be expected to come into it if the selection's pace tells in the latter stages, while Stede Bonnet and Rakki cannot be ruled out on their peak figures.
KTB Selection Sequoiaspirit
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 09:23 UTC, 8 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sequoiaspirit | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Sir Allen | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Avalo | 6/1 | William Hill |
| Stede Bonnet | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Rakki | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Lisnagar Fortune | 25/1 | William Hill |
| Ollie La Ba Ba | 40/1 | 10Bet |
| Eye Of A Tiger | 14/1 | William Hill |
| Dreal Deal | 16/1 | 10Bet |
| Billy Lee Swagger | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Simple Things | 11/2 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 5:48 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Roscommon?
Sequoiaspirit has won here from one visit and Rakki has also won here from one visit.
Who is proven on yielding to soft ground in this field?
Sequoiaspirit, Sir Allen, Ollie La Ba Ba, Dreal Deal and Billy Lee Swagger have all shown form on yielding to soft.
Which runners are unproven on the soft ground?
Avalo, Stede Bonnet, Rakki, Lisnagar Fortune, Eye Of A Tiger and Simple Things are unproven on yielding to soft ground.
What is the expected pace scenario for the race?
A genuinely run race is anticipated with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, creating a fair test.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the track among the principals?
W P Mullins has a 22% strike rate at Roscommon, followed by Ray Hackett on 17% and Gordon Elliott on 16%.
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