3:30 Southwell
This Class 4 novices' handicap chase at Southwell over 2m4f88y on good ground features a compact field of four. The KTB Fit scores separate the runners modestly, with Cher Monsieur heading the numbers on 63, followed by Thank You Blue on 55 and both Manowest and Nazare on 53. Official ratings and recent form suggest a competitive affair where course experience and the ability to handle a strong pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given that two habitual front-runners, Cher Monsieur and Thank You Blue, are set to contest the lead early. Both tend to race prominently, which raises the likelihood of the pace collapsing in the latter stages. That scenario would play to the strengths of the hold-up performers Manowest and Nazare, who can produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the prominent pair can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cher Monsieur KTB Selection63/100Cher Monsieur has shown high-class form for the grade with an RPR of 120 and recent wins at this trip.
- 2Thank You Blue55/100Thank You Blue is a smart performer on his day with a solid recent record of two wins from his last five starts and an RPR of 112.
- 3Manowest53/100Smart performer who showed useful form in handicap chases last season before pulling up on return at Exeter.
- 4Nazare53/100Smart performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has already shown his liking for Southwell with a victory here from four runs.
The contenders
Cher Monsieur KTB Fit 63/100
Cher Monsieur arrives with strong claims on his high-class form for the grade, backed by an RPR of 120 and recent wins at this trip from his figures of 412-21. He has run respectably without winning in both starts at Southwell, finishing second and fourth, and he acts on good ground having scored once from four attempts. The first-time headgear is now applied in the hope of sharpening him further. Neil Mulholland's 12% strike rate at the track from 248 runs and Conor O'Farrell's 6% from 51 rides are both modest, yet the horse's ability sets the standard here as the KTB Selection.
Thank You Blue KTB Fit 55/100
Thank You Blue is capable of smart performances on his day, evidenced by an RPR of 112 and a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last five starts, shown in figures of 11P5P-. He boasts a fine record at Southwell, having won both starts at the track including over this trip, and he acts on good ground despite a modest 1 win from 16 runs on the surface. Jennie Candlish posts a 12% strike rate at Southwell from 145 runs while Ian Power has had only one ride at the venue. His prominent running style means he will be to the fore in what is expected to be a strong gallop.
Manowest KTB Fit 53/100
Manowest showed smart form in handicap chases last season and is rated useful on the back of figures of 1263-P, though he pulled up on his return at Exeter. He drops back in trip today after an unsuccessful try at 3m2f, with three previous efforts at this distance yielding no wins or places. Olly Murphy holds a strong 22% strike rate at Southwell from 250 runs and Sean Bowen is even better on 23% from 337 rides, both with A/E figures close to parity. Usually held up, he is suited to the anticipated strong pace that could collapse late.
The rest of the field
NazareKTB Fit 53/100
Nazare is a smart performer who won over this trip earlier in his career and has displayed his liking for Southwell with a victory from four runs at the track. He arrives in decent nick after a solid third last time out and the drop back from 3m looks a positive, though his record on good ground reads no win or place from three starts. James Owen has a strong 24% strike rate at the venue while Jonathan Burke operates at a solid 14%. Held up in his races, he can benefit if the strong pace tells late.
KTB verdict
Cher Monsieur is the KTB Selection and sets a high standard for the grade with an RPR of 120 and recent wins at this trip. He has shown up well without winning in both previous visits to Southwell and the first-time headgear could bring about further improvement on good ground. Thank You Blue is the obvious danger given his unbeaten record at the track and his prominent style, while the hold-up pair Manowest and Nazare are well placed to capitalise if the front-runners go too hard and the race falls apart in the closing stages.
KTB Selection Cher Monsieur
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:58 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Cher Monsieur | 10/11 | William Hill |
| Thank You Blue | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Manowest | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Nazare | 5/2 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 3:30 Southwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Southwell racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its debut in headgear?
Cher Monsieur is wearing first-time headgear.
How many wins has Thank You Blue recorded at Southwell?
Thank You Blue has won both of his two starts at Southwell.
What is Olly Murphy's strike rate at Southwell?
Olly Murphy has a 22% strike rate at Southwell.
Which runners are likely to contest the lead early?
Cher Monsieur and Thank You Blue are both habitual front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from an unsuccessful 3m2f run?
Manowest is dropping back in trip from an unsuccessful 3m2f run.
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