6:42 Carlisle
This Class 3 EBF Novice Stakes over 5f at Carlisle on soft ground features a field of eight juveniles, the majority of whom arrive with just one run or are making their debut. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Rock Steady Beat heading the numbers on 60, followed closely by Sydney Grace on 58, Eevee Star on 56 and Blakey Ridge on 49. With most runners unproven on soft ground and Carlisle course form thin on the ground, the race looks an open and cautious affair where experience and the ability to handle the conditions could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy is likely to pay. Rock Steady Beat is the one who can race prominently and sit on or close to the pace, while the remainder are either held-up types or unproven in terms of run-style. The key question is whether the prominent runner can control matters or whether the race will fall into the lap of something coming from off the pace if the tempo lifts late on the stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Rock Steady Beat KTB Selection60/100Rock Steady Beat showed up well for a long way on his York debut in a stronger race than this and looks open to improvement.
- 2Sydney Grace58/100Sydney Grace showed some ability when finishing sixth on her Yarmouth debut over this trip on good ground at 16-1.
- 3Eevee Star56/100Fair 2yo who shaped with promise when staying on into third on her Ripon debut over 6f.
- 4Blakey Ridge49/100Blakey Ridge is a March foal who cost 105,000 euros as a yearling and is the first foal of an unraced half-sister to Group 1 sprinter Emaraaty Ana.
- 5Mangham47/100Mangham is a March foal by Harry Angel out of a useful 5f juvenile winner and is a half-brother to three winners who mostly operated between 6f and a mile.
- 6Kaiulani Spirit46/100Kaiulani Spirit is a March-foaled son of Caturra out of a useful 5f-winning mare who has already produced two winners including the 6f AW scorer Oahu.
- 7Excessive44/100Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate from 1281 runs at Carlisle while David Allan posts 11% from 499 rides so both know the track well enough.
- 8Yorkshire Dream36/100Yorkshire Dream showed only modest signs of ability when fifth on his 5f debut at Redcar, running green and never landing a blow after a slow start.
The contenders
Rock Steady Beat KTB Fit 60/100
Rock Steady Beat showed up well for a long way on his York debut in a stronger race than this and looks open to improvement. The drop back from 6f to 5f is a fresh question while the soft ground remains unknown with only one run on the board. Burke and Lee both operate at a 20% strike rate here from decent-sized samples. With figures of RPR 79 and TS 68 he brings the best form on paper, and the drop in class is another plus. His prominent run-style could be an asset in a race that lacks an obvious leader. Overall this is the KTB Selection.
Sydney Grace KTB Fit 58/100
Sydney Grace showed some ability when finishing sixth on her Yarmouth debut over this trip on good ground at 16-1. The daughter of an unknown sire from a yard with a solid 17% strike rate at Carlisle needs to improve markedly on that bare form to figure here. With only one run on the board and limited data overall this is a cautious read on soft ground. Her RPR of 75 gives her a foothold in the race but the TS of 36 suggests she will need to find more. The step up in class adds another layer of difficulty. As a held-up type she will be hoping the race develops some pace to run at.
Eevee Star KTB Fit 56/100
Eevee Star shaped with promise when staying on into third on her Ripon debut over 6f. The drop back to 5f on a stiff track is an unknown that could suit her given the dam won a French Listed race on very soft ground at that trip as a juvenile. Trainer Edward Bethell has an 18% strike rate at Carlisle from 51 runs while jockey Connor Beasley is operating at 9% from 270 rides here. Her RPR of 78 is respectable for a debutant and she steps up in class off the back of that effort. The unproven soft ground is the main query. As a held-up performer she will need the leaders to come back to her late.
Blakey Ridge KTB Fit 49/100
Blakey Ridge is a March foal who cost 105,000 euros as a yearling and is the first foal of an unraced half-sister to Group 1 sprinter Emaraaty Ana. The yard can get 2yos ready first time but its record with them at Carlisle reads just 1-29. Trainer Declan Carroll has an 11% strike rate here from 156 runs while apprentice Zak Wheatley is operating at 7% from 28 rides. With no RPR or Topspeed figures to go on this is very much a watching brief. The pedigree hints at speed but the yard's modest record with juveniles at the track tempers enthusiasm. He is likely to improve for the run.
The rest of the field
ManghamKTB Fit 47/100
Mangham is a March foal by Harry Angel out of a useful 5f juvenile winner and is a half-brother to three winners who mostly operated between 6f and a mile. Connections are having their first two-year-old runner and the yard’s modest record with juveniles suggests this one is likely to need the run. Low data confidence debutant with a wide draw.
Kaiulani SpiritKTB Fit 46/100
Kaiulani Spirit is a March-foaled son of Caturra out of a useful 5f-winning mare who has already produced two winners including the 6f AW scorer Oahu. He cost £16,000 as a yearling and was gelded before heading to Tim Easterby. The yard posts a 10% strike-rate from a huge 1281 runs at Carlisle while Sean Kirrane has a solid 12% from 89 rides here.
ExcessiveKTB Fit 44/100
Tim Easterby has a 10% strike rate from 1281 runs at Carlisle while David Allan posts 11% from 499 rides so both know the track well enough. This May-foaled Cotai Glory gelding cost 15,000 euros as a foal and is a half-brother to a couple of middle-distance winners out of a 6f AW 2yo winner yet he looks a late type who could need time to come to hand. As a debutant with no RPR or Topspeed figures the overall picture remains low-confidence and tentative.
Yorkshire DreamKTB Fit 36/100
Yorkshire Dream showed only modest signs of ability when fifth on his 5f debut at Redcar, running green and never landing a blow after a slow start. The limited RPR and Topspeed figures match that bare form and he remains a work in progress. Trainer Haslam has a 7% strike rate from 101 runs at Carlisle while Mulrennan operates at 12% from 599 rides here.
KTB verdict
Rock Steady Beat is the KTB Selection. He showed up well for a long way on his York debut in a stronger race than this, brings the best figures with RPR 79 and TS 68, and his prominent run-style could be a major asset in a steadily-run affair that lacks an obvious leader. The drop to 5f and the soft ground are the two main unknowns but the drop in class and the strong Carlisle record of both trainer and jockey add to the appeal. The main dangers are Eevee Star, who shaped with promise at Ripon and could be helped by the return to 5f on soft ground given her pedigree, and Sydney Grace who showed some ability on debut but will need to improve to feature.
KTB Selection Rock Steady Beat
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:55 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rock Steady Beat | 10/11 | William Hill |
| Sydney Grace | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Eevee Star | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Blakey Ridge | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Mangham | 28/1 | William Hill |
| Kaiulani Spirit | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Excessive | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Yorkshire Dream | 35/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:42 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Rock Steady Beat has the highest KTB Fit Score on 60.
How many runners are unproven on soft ground?
Six runners have no runs on soft ground and are therefore unproven on the going.
What is the trainer and jockey combination strike rate for Rock Steady Beat's connections at Carlisle?
Both the trainer and jockey operate at a 20% strike rate at Carlisle.
Which horse is the only one to have raced over 5f already?
Sydney Grace and Yorkshire Dream have both raced over this trip, while Rock Steady Beat raced over 6f.
What is the yard's record with juveniles at Carlisle for Blakey Ridge's trainer?
The yard's record with 2yos at Carlisle reads just 1-29.
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