7:42 Carlisle
A competitive Class 4 handicap over 5f at Carlisle on soft ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB Fit ratings highlight a clear top pick in Trilby on 67 while the remainder sit in a tight band from 54 down to 43. The official ratings cluster between 84 and 88 for most of the principals, suggesting little between them on paper, though the surface and the strong pace anticipated will play a major part. Trainer and jockey Carlisle records vary markedly across the runners, with several making their first visit to the track.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared, the pace shape is strongly positive and the race is expected to be run at a strong gallop that could collapse in the closing stages. Station X, Spoof, The Bell Conductor and several prominent racers such as Hundred Caps, Vince L’Amour and Parisiac are likely to be involved up front early. That scenario poses the key question of whether any hold-up performer can weave through the pack late, with Trilby’s style perfectly suited to such a setup.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Trilby KTB Selection67/100Trilby is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best when winning over 6f at Doncaster in July.
- 2Station X54/100Station X is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 88 and has shown consistency through recent form figures of 2-2316.
- 3Hundred Caps52/100Hundred Caps is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 84 and has won twice over this 5f trip.
- 4Spoof51/100Spoof arrives in solid nick after a recent win and holds a fair rating that matches his best efforts.
- 5Vince L'Amour50/100Vince L'Amour is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 85 and four wins at this trip from 32 starts.
- 6Peter The Wolf50/100Peter The Wolf is a fair performer on his best days with RPR and Topspeed figures that stack up in this company.
- 7Qila50/100Qila brings fair form to this handicap debut having finished second in a 5f Newcastle novice last time.
- 8Parisiac48/100Parisiac is a fair handicapper who arrives in form after a recent win and has solid placed efforts on soft ground.
- 9Francisco's Piece48/100Fair performer who arrives in modest form after a string of poor efforts and has dropped to a mark that looks demanding on recent evidence.
- 10Arctic Summer47/100Arctic Summer is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings but arrives in modest form after three poor efforts this year.
- 11The Bell Conductor44/100The Bell Conductor is a fair handicapper who arrives in decent nick after a second at Doncaster last time and holds solid ratings for the grade.
- 12Accrual43/100Accrual is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 15 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having placed on his last two starts.
The contenders
Trilby KTB Fit 67/100
Trilby is a fair handicapper who has been in and out of form this year but showed his best when winning over 6f at Doncaster in July. With an RPR of 88 and recent form figures of 852613 he arrives with solid claims, particularly as he has two wins and five places from eight starts on soft ground. He has won three times over today’s 5f trip, so the drop back from 6f is an interesting move. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his run-style aligns well with the expected strong pace. The Sam England yard posts a 16% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.09 from 88 runs while P J McDonald is 13% from 369 rides here. First-time Carlisle adds a fresh question though both trainer and jockey have solid records at the track.
Station X KTB Fit 54/100
Station X is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 88 and has shown consistency through recent form figures of 2-2316. He acts on soft ground with a win and three places from four starts while he has been placed three times in eight runs at this trip without scoring. Dropping in class looks a positive and his front-running style, in which he tends to make the running or race on the pace, could see him set the tone in a race with a strong pace likely. Bryan Smart has a solid 13% strike rate from 284 runs at Carlisle and Paul Mulrennan is 12% from 599 rides here though this represents the horse’s first visit to the track.
Hundred Caps KTB Fit 52/100
Hundred Caps is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 84 and has won twice over this 5f trip. He arrives in decent form having finished second twice this year yet looks vulnerable on soft ground having never run on it before. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, his prominent run-style will see him involved in the early battle in what is set to be a strongly run race. Julie Camacho holds an 11% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.8 from 141 runs while Kevin Stott is slightly better on 16% from 154 rides here.
Spoof KTB Fit 51/100
Spoof arrives in solid nick after a recent win and holds a fair rating that matches his best efforts with an RPR of 87. He has won nine times at this trip and handles soft ground well with two wins and five places from nine starts. Stepping up in class is the concern and his front-running style, in which he tends to make the running or race on the pace, will place him right at the sharp end of a race with a strong pace likely. The Kevin & Lauren Frost yard has almost no track data here with a 0% strike rate from one run and the jockey’s modest 6% strike rate from 33 rides at Carlisle adds a note of caution.
Vince L'Amour KTB Fit 50/100
Vince L’Amour is a fair performer on his best days with an RPR of 85 and four wins at this trip from 32 starts. He has shown solid ability on soft ground with two wins and two places from six runs though his recent form has been mixed with figures of 828100. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he will be prominent early in a strongly run contest. The Tim Easterby yard holds a 10% strike rate from 1281 runs at Carlisle while David Allan is 11% from 499 rides here and this is the horse’s first visit to the track.
The rest of the field
Peter The WolfKTB Fit 50/100
Peter The Wolf is a fair performer on his best days with RPR and Topspeed figures that stack up in this company. He has won on soft ground and showed useful form when placed over 6f last season though his latest run was poor and he now drops back in trip for the first time. The trainer’s modest record at Carlisle is offset by the jockey’s strong 40% strike rate here from a small sample.
QilaKTB Fit 50/100
Qila brings fair form to this handicap debut having finished second in a 5f Newcastle novice last time. The placed effort at today’s trip without winning offers some encouragement though the Topspeed figure of 51 suggests she has more to find on the clock. Trainer Brian Ellison has a 12% strike rate from 486 runs at Carlisle while jockey Ben Robinson posts 15% from 52 rides here.
ParisiacKTB Fit 48/100
Parisiac is a fair handicapper who arrives in form after a recent win and has solid placed efforts on soft ground. He has won seven times at this trip though his last run here at Carlisle was a modest third. The yard’s modest 8% strike-rate at the track and the jockey’s limited record add a note of caution.
Francisco's PieceKTB Fit 48/100
Francisco’s Piece is a fair performer who arrives in modest form after a string of poor efforts and has dropped to a mark that looks demanding on recent evidence. He drops back to 5f having won twice at the trip earlier in his career and has shown he handles soft ground with a win and three places from five attempts. Trainer’s modest record at Carlisle offers little encouragement and this is the jockey’s first ride here.
Arctic SummerKTB Fit 47/100
Arctic Summer is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings but arrives in modest form after three poor efforts this year. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning and now drops back to 5f for the first time in a while wearing first-time headgear. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here at Carlisle.
The Bell ConductorKTB Fit 44/100
The Bell Conductor is a fair handicapper who arrives in decent nick after a second at Doncaster last time and holds solid ratings for the grade. He has won seven times at this trip though he is 0-9 on soft ground with two placed efforts and makes his Carlisle debut today. The yard has yet to strike at the track from 13 runners while Hart’s 7% strike rate from 240 rides here is modest.
AccrualKTB Fit 43/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 15 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having placed on his last two starts. He has run twice on soft ground without placing and makes his first appearance at Carlisle from stall 11. The yard has an 8% strike rate here from 65 runs.
KTB verdict
Trilby stands out as the KTB Selection with a clear Fit rating advantage and a profile that fits the race well. A fair handicapper who has won on soft ground and over the trip, his hold-up style is ideally suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold and could collapse late. The drop back to 5f from 6f is interesting while the yard and jockey both have solid Carlisle records. Main dangers are Station X, whose front-running style and drop in class make him a major player if he can dictate, and Hundred Caps, who brings strong recent form though the soft ground is an unknown.
KTB Selection Trilby
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:55 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Trilby | 9/4 | William Hill |
| Station X | 7/1 | William Hill |
| Hundred Caps | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Spoof | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Vince L'Amour | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Peter The Wolf | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Qila | 11/2 | Sporting Index |
| Parisiac | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Francisco's Piece | 15/2 | Sporting Index |
| Arctic Summer | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| The Bell Conductor | 9/1 | Sporting Index |
This is the narrative read of the 7:42 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to the expected strong pace?
Trilby, who is usually held up and produces his effort late.
How many wins has Trilby recorded on soft ground?
Two wins from eight starts on soft.
Which runners are likely to contest the lead early?
Station X, Spoof and The Bell Conductor are all front-runners while Hundred Caps, Vince L’Amour and Parisiac tend to race prominently.
Which horse is unproven on soft ground?
Hundred Caps and Qila have no runs on soft.
What is the trainer’s strike rate at Carlisle with Vince L’Amour’s stable?
10% strike rate from 1281 runs.
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