6:12 Carlisle
A Class 6 amateur jockeys' handicap over 5f182y on soft ground at Carlisle brings together a field of six limited performers, several of whom arrive in modest or patchy form. The KTB Fit Scores reflect a race with little depth, headed by Andalprofit on 63, with the remainder clustered between 54 and 39. Recent form is mixed, with a couple showing signs of life while others look out of sorts or unproven in the conditions, and the race poses questions about how several will handle the soft surface and first visit to the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Andalprofit is a confirmed front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, and he will be joined in the forward group by prominent racers Lumenbourg, Jet Warrior, Bay Breeze, Groundsman and Amaysmont. This should set up a fair test, with the key question being whether the early pace holds up on the soft ground or if one of the prominent runners can land a telling blow from just off it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Andalprofit KTB Selection63/100Limited on the figures and largely out of form this year.
- 2Lumenbourg54/100Limited performer who has been placed a couple of times at today's trip but has never won in 22 starts.
- 3Jet Warrior46/100Limited performer who has found a good vein of form and won his last two starts over this trip at Ayr and Ripon.
- 4Bay Breeze44/100Bay Breeze is a limited performer on the figures but has won over this trip and shown a liking for soft ground with four wins from 11 starts.
- 5Groundsman44/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in 15 starts and arrives here with a recent eighth that offers no encouragement.
- 6Amaysmont39/100Amaysmont is a limited performer with a recent best of 54 on RPR and he has been in and out this year.
The contenders
Andalprofit KTB Fit 63/100
Andalprofit is limited on the figures with an RPR of 55 and largely out of form this year, as his recent figures of 628581 suggest. He has won at today's trip but has never tackled soft ground and this is his first visit to Carlisle. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 274 runs with an A/E of 0.97, though the 5lb claimer has barely ridden here despite a 33% strike rate and A/E of 8.98 from just three rides. Drawn in stall 1, his high-confidence front-running style means he is likely to set the pace in what is expected to be a genuinely-run race. Overall he remains modest but the selection in a race that looks within his capabilities on the balance of the KTB numbers.
Lumenbourg KTB Fit 54/100
Lumenbourg is a limited performer with an RPR of 56 who has been placed a couple of times at today's trip but has never won in 22 starts. His recent efforts read 238-03, showing some consistency without progressing to victory. He has had only one run on soft ground which produced no win or place, and this is his first visit to Carlisle. The trainer has an 11% strike rate here from 141 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while the jockey is 1-7 at the track with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.36. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that assessment, he should be involved in the early fractions of a genuinely-run contest but needs to find more to break his duck.
Jet Warrior KTB Fit 46/100
Jet Warrior is a limited performer on the figures with an RPR of 54 but has found a good vein of form and won his last two starts over this trip at Ayr and Ripon, as shown by recent figures of -58311. He must prove he is as effective on soft ground with only one previous run on it that brought no win or place, and with just seven career starts to date there are still unknowns. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate from 101 runs at Carlisle with an A/E of 0.74, while the jockey has had just one ride here. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, he will be prominent in what shapes to be a genuinely-run race and has to handle the rise in the weights after his recent successes.
Bay Breeze KTB Fit 44/100
Bay Breeze is a limited performer on the figures with an RPR of 50 but has won over this trip and shown a liking for soft ground with four wins from 11 starts. He has also won at Carlisle from three visits and lines up in a race that looks within his capabilities on recent form of 20-673. The yard has a 10% strike rate at the track from 1281 runs with an A/E of 0.77, offset by the modest 8% record when teaming up with this jockey from 53 rides and an A/E of 0.45, though the rider himself holds a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.18 from five rides at Carlisle. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, he is well suited by the going and the prominent pace shape should play to his strengths as he drops in class.
The rest of the field
GroundsmanKTB Fit 44/100
Groundsman is a limited performer who has shown little spark in 15 starts and arrives here with a recent eighth that offers no encouragement. He drops back to 5f having failed to win in four previous attempts at the distance, has no experience of soft ground, and the trainer holds a modest 9% strike rate at Carlisle from 22 runs with an A/E of 0.86; the 7lb claimer has no record at the track.
AmaysmontKTB Fit 39/100
Amaysmont is a limited performer with a recent best of 54 on RPR and he has been in and out this year, as his figures of 828038 indicate. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip in the past though his last run came over 7f so this is a fresh question; the yard and jockey each have only one piece of Carlisle data which is too small a sample to judge while he is unexposed on this track and has placed once from three runs on soft without winning.
KTB verdict
Andalprofit is the KTB Selection in a modest Class 6 handicap where the Fit Scores underline the limited quality on show. He brings the highest rating of the principals on 63, his front-running style is perfectly suited to the expected genuinely-run pace, and the trainer's solid record at Carlisle adds some encouragement even if the jockey is light on experience here. The case rests on him making the most of stall 1 and dictating terms on a day when several rivals have questions to answer on soft ground or at the track for the first time. The main dangers are likely to come from Bay Breeze, who has proven soft-ground form and a previous Carlisle success, and the in-form Jet Warrior, who will be prominent but needs to show the step up in trip and surface does not inconvenience him.
KTB Selection Andalprofit
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 06:58 UTC, 9 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Andalprofit | 4/1 | William Hill |
| Lumenbourg | 5/2 | Bet365 |
| Jet Warrior | 10/3 | William Hill |
| Bay Breeze | 5/1 | Bet Victor |
| Groundsman | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Amaysmont | 6/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 6:12 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on soft ground but holds the highest KTB Fit Score?
Andalprofit, rated 63 with no runs on soft and an RPR of 55.
How many wins has Bay Breeze recorded on soft ground?
Four wins from 11 starts on soft.
Which runner has won its last two starts over this trip?
Jet Warrior, successful at Ayr and Ripon.
What is the trainer and jockey combined strike rate at Carlisle for Bay Breeze?
The trainer and jockey record is shown as 4/53 (8%) with an A/E of 0.45.
Which horse has never won in 22 starts?
Lumenbourg, with an RPR of 56 and placed a couple of times at today's trip.
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