2:30 Fontwell
This Class 4 mares' novices' hurdle at Fontwell over 2m3f on good ground features a compact field of six. The KTB Fit Scores suggest a competitive but not overwhelming contest, with the top four separated by just nine points and the selection carrying a 7lb penalty after a recent win. Recent form is mixed, several runners are stepping up in trip or class, and the overall standard looks useful for the grade with two principals boasting RPRs in the low 110s.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of two habitual front-runners. Viscountess Nelson and Frenati are both likely to contest the lead or race prominently, which could set this up for late closers. The key question is whether the pace collapses late on this good ground, in which case hold-up performers such as My Lady d'Ex and Evening Tess could be advantaged as the race develops.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Viscountess Nelson KTB Selection61/100Smart mare who showed useful improvement when winning at Perth in April and now carries a 7lb penalty in this higher grade.
- 2My Lady d'Ex57/100Lightly raced mare who has shown little in two bumpers and was then well held on her hurdling debut here over shorter.
- 3Elated54/100Smart performer who has shown consistent promise in three completed starts over hurdles with form figures of 5333 and an RPR of 112.
- 4Frenati52/100Frenati showed ability when landing a soft-ground bumper at Stratford in March before falling at the first on her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot.
- 5Evening Tess50/100Evening Tess has shown steady progress in four runs and ran to a smart level when runner-up on her handicap debut at Newton Abbot last month.
- 6Maria Mes49/100Maria Mes has been well beaten in both bumper starts and now switches to hurdling up in trip.
The contenders
Viscountess Nelson KTB Fit 61/100
Viscountess Nelson is a smart mare who showed useful improvement when winning at Perth in April and now carries a 7lb penalty in this higher grade. She has already won over today's trip on good ground and her RPR of 113 marks her down as high-class at this level. Nicky Henderson's 22% strike rate at Fontwell is solid while James Bowen is on board. Her recent form figures of 1/421- underline progressive form. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace she is sure to set a strong gallop that could test her rivals. The trainer and jockey combination both have healthy records at the track.
My Lady d'Ex KTB Fit 57/100
My Lady d'Ex is a lightly raced mare who has shown little in two bumpers and was then well held on her hurdling debut here over shorter. The step up to 2m3f poses a fresh question while the yard’s 37% strike rate from 27 runs at Fontwell offers some hope. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, though with limited evidence to date. Small sample overall so read with caution. The class move is another factor against her and she has no RPR or Topspeed ratings of note. Trainer and jockey figures at the course are respectable but she has plenty to find on what she has shown so far.
Elated KTB Fit 54/100
Elated is a smart performer who has shown consistent promise in three completed starts over hurdles with form figures of 5333 and an RPR of 112. She steps up to 2m3f for the first time today which asks a new question though her pedigree suggests she will handle the extra distance. Ben Pauling has an 18% strike rate at Fontwell from 150 runs while Ben Jones takes the ride. She races prominently, usually on or close to the lead, which should see her well placed in a race with a strong pace. Her placed effort on good ground adds to her solidity though she has yet to win a hurdle. The consistent profile makes her a clear danger.
Frenati KTB Fit 52/100
Frenati showed ability when landing a soft-ground bumper at Stratford in March before falling at the first on her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot. She now steps up in trip as a fresh question having only four runs in the last year. The Honeyball yard has a 30% strike rate at Fontwell from 293 runs while Twiston-Davies takes the ride. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace she could share the early lead with the selection. She has placed once on good ground though is yet to win over hurdles. The limited hurdling experience and recent fall add an element of risk but the yard's local record is a positive.
The rest of the field
Evening TessKTB Fit 50/100
Evening Tess has shown steady progress in four runs and ran to a smart level when runner-up on her handicap debut at Newton Abbot last month. She has already placed at today's trip and the step up in distance now looks sure to suit. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, and steps up in class. Dan Skelton's 18% strike rate at Fontwell and Harry Skelton's record there are both worth noting while she has placed twice on good ground.
Maria MesKTB Fit 49/100
Maria Mes has been well beaten in both bumper starts and now switches to hurdling up in trip. The step up to 2m3f is an unknown that could suit on pedigree but the small sample makes it impossible to be certain. She typically settles in midfield and is unproven on good ground. Jamie Snowden's 19% strike rate at Fontwell from a big sample is a positive while Jonathan Burke is aboard but she has considerable ground to make up on the leading contenders.
KTB verdict
Viscountess Nelson stands out as the KTB Selection. She brings the highest RPR in the field, has already won over this trip on good ground, and her progressive recent form plus the Henderson-Bowen combination at a track where both have solid records make her the one to beat. The strong pace she is likely to set could play into the hands of hold-up types but she has the class to see them off. Elated is the most consistent danger with her string of placed efforts and prominent style, while Evening Tess and Frenati cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls apart late.
KTB Selection Viscountess Nelson
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Fontwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Fontwell racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Elated steps up to 2m3f for the first time today.
Who are the two habitual front-runners in the field?
Viscountess Nelson and Frenati are both front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runner has the highest official RPR figure?
Viscountess Nelson has the highest RPR of 113.
How many of these runners have previous course form at Fontwell?
Only My Lady d'Ex has a previous run at the course, finishing seventh.
Which horse is unproven on good ground?
Maria Mes has had no runs on good ground.
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