2:45 Yarmouth
This Class 4 novice over 6f at Yarmouth on soft ground features a field of ten three-year-olds and younger with no standout standout. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but somewhat muddled affair, headed by Court Alert on 65 with several others clustered in the mid-50s. Recent form is mixed and several runners remain unproven on soft ground, while the lightly raced types bring potential but limited evidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner. Several principals, including Court Alert, Nevasca Cinza and Upper Hendersyde, tend to race prominently and should be ridden close to the pace. Held-up types such as Anyasi, Unique Procedure and Debrief will be produced late, so the key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will collapse enough for the closers to land a blow.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Court Alert KTB Selection65/100Fair performer who showed real promise when second in a big-field Newmarket sales race over this trip last August.
- 2Nevasca Cinza59/100This fair 3-year-old has been placed in all four starts over 6f yet is not obviously progressing.
- 3Upper Hendersyde57/100Upper Hendersyde showed fair form when second on his Salisbury debut last month.
- 4Anyasi55/100Anyasi showed fair form when third on debut at Leicester last August, staying on well after running green and behind a subsequent Group 3 winner.
- 5Unique Procedure53/100Unique Procedure has been well beaten in both starts over this trip, most recently finishing fifth of six here at Yarmouth.
- 6Rogue Federation47/100Luke Morris has a 10% strike rate from 583 rides at Yarmouth.
- 7Yazoo47/100Yazoo is a newcomer with a pedigree that suggests he could have ability.
- 8Debrief47/100Debrief showed fair maiden form when fourth on debut here over 7f but was then well beaten on his return.
- 9Red Legs37/100Red Legs showed very little on her debut at Windsor ten days ago, finishing eighth of ten after missing the break and racing keenly.
- 10George Wickham36/100Gary and Josh Moore have a 10% strike rate from 10 runs at Yarmouth.
The contenders
Court Alert KTB Fit 65/100
Court Alert is a fair performer who showed real promise when second in a big-field Newmarket sales race over this trip last August. He has been well beaten in both starts since and was gelded before a modest return over 7f, though he has since had wind surgery. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 120 runs and the 3yo drops back to a trip where he is 1-3. With figures of RPR 88 and TS 82 he brings the best recent form in the field. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is well placed to take advantage of the muddling pace shape. The combination of the drop back to 6f and the recent wind operation gives him every chance of bouncing back.
Nevasca Cinza KTB Fit 59/100
Nevasca Cinza is a fair 3-year-old who has been placed in all four starts over 6f yet is not obviously progressing. He finished only third of six at Yarmouth on his latest outing when sent off odds-on and now tries first-time cheekpieces. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at the track from a large sample of 584 runs. With an RPR of 88 he has similar ability to the selection on paper. He has been placed once on soft ground from one run but remains without a win on the surface. Usually racing handily, he should be involved in the tactical early battle.
Upper Hendersyde KTB Fit 57/100
Upper Hendersyde showed fair form when second on his Salisbury debut last month. He has a placed run at this trip but remains lightly raced with only one start and the form of that race is not rock solid. The yard's 11% strike rate at Yarmouth from 242 runs offers no particular edge. With an RPR of 89 he is closely matched on the figures. Unproven on soft ground, he will need to handle the conditions. Usually racing handily on the evidence so far, he should be prominent in a race lacking an obvious leader.
Anyasi KTB Fit 55/100
Anyasi showed fair form when third on debut at Leicester last August, staying on well after running green and behind a subsequent Group 3 winner. The form has been well franked and he now drops back to 6f for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Varian has a solid 21% strike rate at Yarmouth from 286 runs. His RPR of 77 leaves him with a bit to find on the principals. Unproven on soft ground, he will need to prove effective under the conditions. Usually held up, he will be produced late in a race where the pace is expected to be tactical.
Unique Procedure KTB Fit 53/100
Unique Procedure has been well beaten in both starts over this trip, most recently finishing fifth of six here at Yarmouth. The limited form gives an RPR of 52 and Topspeed of 41 which matches the class read. Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett have a 15% strike rate from 33 runs at Yarmouth. He has no soft-ground experience and remains with plenty to find. Usually held up, he will need the race to fall apart in front if he is to get involved. The 3yo looks up against it on what he has shown so far.
The rest of the field
Rogue FederationKTB Fit 47/100
Rogue Federation is a newcomer by Dark Angel with no racecourse form and low data confidence so his ability remains entirely untested. Luke Morris has a 10% strike rate from 583 rides at Yarmouth.
YazooKTB Fit 47/100
Yazoo is a newcomer with a pedigree that suggests he could have ability. The yard and jockey both have modest records at Yarmouth and the data confidence is low so any market support would need to be noted.
DebriefKTB Fit 47/100
Debrief showed fair maiden form when fourth on debut here over 7f but was then well beaten on his return. He drops back to 6f today having already tried the trip without success and the handicapper has not been kind after just two runs. Harry Eustace has a modest 7% strike rate at Yarmouth from 88 runs while Pat Cosgrave has a solid record at the track.
Red LegsKTB Fit 37/100
Red Legs showed very little on her debut at Windsor ten days ago, finishing eighth of ten after missing the break and racing keenly. The limited form gives her plenty to find in this company and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Yarmouth adds no encouragement.
George WickhamKTB Fit 36/100
George Wickham showed very little on his sole start at Bath last August when he finished last of seven having run green. Stepping up to 6f is a fresh question and with only one run on the board the form has to be treated with real caution. Gary and Josh Moore have a 10% strike rate from 10 runs at Yarmouth.
KTB verdict
Court Alert is the KTB Selection. He showed real promise when second in a big-field Newmarket sales race over this trip last August and brings the best figures in the race with RPR 88 and TS 82. The drop back to 6f after a wind operation looks ideal given his prominent run-style in a muddling tactical affair. Nevasca Cinza and Upper Hendersyde are the main dangers, both prominent runners with similar ability on paper though neither has been progressing obviously. Anyasi could improve for the drop to 6f and the franked form of his debut, but he will need to come from off the pace.
KTB Selection Court Alert
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Court Alert on 65/100.
How many runners have previous experience on soft ground?
Only Nevasca Cinza, who has been placed once from one run on soft.
Who are the prominent runners among the principals?
Court Alert, Nevasca Cinza and Upper Hendersyde are all usually raced handily or close to the lead.
What is the trainer strike rate at Yarmouth for the trainer of the selection?
Eve Johnson Houghton has a 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 120 runs with an A/E of 1.02.
Which horse has franked debut form behind a subsequent Group 3 winner?
Anyasi, who finished third at Leicester last August.
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