5:35 Yarmouth
This Class 6 handicap at Yarmouth over 1m3f104y on soft ground brings together a field of nine three-year-olds where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Darkest Red, Cospicua and Queen Of Astolat all sit on an identical 56/100 rating, with Premier Cru a little behind on 53. The overall picture is one of modest performers, many unproven on soft turf, stepping up or down in trip and making their handicap bows in a race that looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. With several runners usually held up, including the selection Darkest Red and Cospicua, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than a sprint for the line. Those who can settle in mid-division or race prominently, such as Bennyworth, may find themselves advantaged if the tempo remains modest. The key question is whether any horse can produce a telling effort off this steady gallop on ground that remains unproven for most of the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Darkest Red KTB Selection56/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last three starts including a second here over this trip.
- 2Cospicua56/100Cospicua is a modest performer who has won twice on AW at 1m4f but been well beaten in her other two starts at that trip.
- 3Queen Of Astolat56/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when sixth of ten on handicap debut at Windsor last month.
- 4Premier Cru53/100Premier Cru has shown modest ability at best in four starts with form of 5689 and corresponding RPR and Topspeed figures that back up the class read.
- 5Picaro52/100Picaro has shown modest ability in three runs with a best RPR of 67 when fourth in an AW novice over this trip in April.
- 6Tenison50/100Modest performer who showed a bit more when fourth of 11 on handicap debut at Nottingham last month.
- 7Home Secretary45/100Modest performer who showed little in three turf runs and one on AW last autumn over 7f and 1m.
- 8Bennyworth45/100Bennyworth has shown modest ability in six starts with a best RPR of 66 when runner-up on handicap debut at Lingfield in April.
- 9Salamis Bay38/100Salamis Bay has shown modest form in three runs to date with best RPR of 63 and now steps up in trip as a fresh question.
The contenders
Darkest Red KTB Fit 56/100
Darkest Red is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on his last three starts including a second here over this trip. He acts on a variety of ground but remains unproven on soft and that adds a question mark today. The trainer's 10% strike rate at Yarmouth from 115 runs is about as expected while Pat Cosgrave brings a 14% strike rate at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair. With RPR of 73 he has a little more on the figures than some of his rivals and his placed form gives him a solid platform in this field.
Cospicua KTB Fit 56/100
Cospicua is a modest performer who has won twice on AW at 1m4f but been well beaten in her other two starts at that trip. She drops back in distance today to a trip she has not tried before and makes her turf debut on soft ground where the small sample makes her suitability impossible to judge. The yard has a 14% strike rate from 132 runs at Yarmouth while the 3lb claimer Jack Callan is aboard and brings a 20% strike rate at the venue. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will be hoping the steady pace allows her to close effectively. Her RPR of 71 suggests she is competitive at this level on her best AW efforts.
Queen Of Astolat KTB Fit 56/100
Queen Of Astolat is a modest performer who showed a bit more when sixth of ten on handicap debut at Windsor last month. She has only had four runs and was beaten a fair way on that first start back from a 135-day break so more will be needed here. Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a solid 14% strike rate at Yarmouth from 145 runs and the 24% trainer-jockey strike-rate with Paddy Bradley adds encouragement. Typically settling in midfield, she should be well placed to pick up the pieces if the race develops steadily. Her RPR of 69 leaves her a touch below some of the principals but the drop in class is a positive.
Premier Cru KTB Fit 53/100
Premier Cru has shown modest ability at best in four starts with form of 5689 and corresponding RPR and Topspeed figures that back up the class read. She steps up in trip today as a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile means her ability on soft ground remains unknown. The yard has a 15% strike rate from 584 runs at Yarmouth and she has already run once here finishing sixth. Typically settling in midfield, she should be on the premises if the steady pace plays to her strengths. With an RPR of 72 she is not without hope but will need to improve on what she has shown so far.
The rest of the field
PicaroKTB Fit 52/100
Picaro has shown modest ability in three runs with a best RPR of 67 when fourth in an AW novice over this trip in April. He now goes handicapping in first-time cheekpieces, drops in class and steps back up in distance from 1m2f. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Yarmouth from 60 runs.
TenisonKTB Fit 50/100
Tenison is a modest performer who showed a bit more when fourth of 11 on handicap debut at Nottingham last month. He steps up in trip again today having last run over 1m2f and that looks a fresh question rather than a known weakness. Trainer has a solid 15% strike rate from 203 runs at Yarmouth.
Home SecretaryKTB Fit 45/100
Home Secretary is a modest performer who showed little in three turf runs and one on AW last autumn over 7f and 1m. He steps up markedly in trip for his handicap debut and first run since being gelded while the first-time cheekpieces are another unknown. Prescott has a solid 22% strike rate at Yarmouth from a big sample.
BennyworthKTB Fit 45/100
Bennyworth has shown modest ability in six starts with a best RPR of 66 when runner-up on handicap debut at Lingfield in April. He failed to see out 1m2f on his latest turf start and now steps up in trip again which asks a fresh question of his stamina. The yard has a 10% strike rate from 115 runs at Yarmouth.
Salamis BayKTB Fit 38/100
Salamis Bay has shown modest form in three runs to date with best RPR of 63 and now steps up in trip as a fresh question. The yard records a 10% strike rate from 384 runs at Yarmouth. Lightly raced with only three career starts she remains open to some improvement on handicap debut though the small sample makes going suitability hard to gauge.
KTB verdict
Darkest Red is the KTB Selection. He has the strongest recent placed form including a second over course and distance, an RPR of 73 that is competitive here, and a run-style that should suit if the steadily-run race develops as expected. His consistency gives him the edge over rivals who are either dropping back in trip, stepping up markedly in distance or making their turf debuts on soft ground. The main dangers are Cospicua, who brings solid AW form and a good jockey booking, Queen Of Astolat who is dropping in class, and Premier Cru who has already sampled the track.
KTB Selection Darkest Red
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Yarmouth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Yarmouth racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are unproven on soft ground?
Darkest Red, Cospicua, Queen Of Astolat, Premier Cru, Picaro, Tenison, Bennyworth and Salamis Bay have no runs on soft.
Who has the highest strike-rate at Yarmouth among the trainers?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 22% strike rate at Yarmouth from 394 runs.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Picaro runs in first-time cheekpieces and Home Secretary runs in first-time cheekpieces.
Which horses have course form at Yarmouth?
Darkest Red has one run here when second, Premier Cru has one run here when sixth and Home Secretary has one run here when sixth.
Who is dropping in class for this race?
Queen Of Astolat, Picaro, Home Secretary and Salamis Bay are all dropping in class.
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