7:00 Leopardstown
The 2026 Ballycorus Stakes is a Group 3 contest over 7f35y at Leopardstown on soft ground, featuring a compact but high-quality field of eight. Several smart performers line up, headed by Native Warrior who tops the KTB Fit ratings on 77 with an RPR of 120. The race looks a genuinely-run affair according to the pace data, and the KTB numbers point to a competitive renewal where class, trip effectiveness and ground suitability will be key.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape of high confidence, the race is expected to be contested up front by a front-runner pressed by several handy types. Wannabe Royal is the most likely to take them along from the front, with Audience, Celestial Orbit and Oh Cecelia all inclined to race prominently and apply pressure. This sets up a fair test that could see the race won from off the pace, posing the key question of whether the prominent runners can sustain their efforts or if the hold-up performers will be best placed to strike late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Native Warrior KTB Selection77/100Native Warrior brings high-class form to this Group race with an RPR of 120 and recent efforts that include a win and a narrow second.
- 2Audience58/100Smart performer with an RPR of 116 who has won four times at this trip from 20 starts.
- 3Celestial Orbit58/100Celestial Orbit is a smart performer on his figures and arrives in form after a recent win.
- 4East Hampton57/100Smart performer who ran to a high level when second on reappearance last time.
- 5Oh Cecelia56/100Smart performer who has been consistent this year with three wins from six starts and a solid RPR of 112.
- 6Wannabe Royal52/100Smart performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a placed effort from his last three starts.
- 7Zodiac Bear48/100Zodiac Bear is a smart performer who won a C&D maiden on his second start and then shaped well when third in this race last year from an unfavoured draw.
- 8Redemption Road43/100Smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and finished a solid third over 1m here last time.
The contenders
Native Warrior KTB Fit 77/100
Native Warrior arrives with high-class form and an RPR of 120, having posted a win and a narrow second in recent efforts. Successful three times at this trip from seven starts, he also handles soft ground well with a win and two places from three runs on it. The Burke yard boasts a 32% strike rate at Leopardstown from 19 runs with an A/E of 1.96, though James Doyle is only 8% from 13 rides here with an A/E of 0.32. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the five-year-old is drawn in stall 4 and brings strong recent form figures of 115-27 to the race. As the KTB Selection he is taken to land this Group 3.
Audience KTB Fit 58/100
Audience is a smart performer with an RPR of 116 and has won four times over today's trip from 20 starts. His recent form of -30009 is patchy, however, and he has been beaten 12 lengths or more on his last two outings. The O'Meara yard has a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 24 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while Colin Keane operates at 14% from a large sample of 868 rides here with an A/E of 0.84. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he has been placed twice from four starts on soft ground but without winning. At seven he has the experience edge but needs to bounce back from those recent heavy defeats.
Celestial Orbit KTB Fit 58/100
Celestial Orbit is a smart performer on his figures with an RPR of 112 and arrives in form after a recent win. He has won twice over today's 7f trip but was well held on his only soft-ground start and now makes his first appearance at Leopardstown. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 1034 runs with an A/E of 0.9, and Dylan Browne McMonagle is 13% from 267 rides here with an A/E of 0.92. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, the four-year-old has recent form figures of 402-17. While the yard and jockey records are respectable, the lack of soft-ground success and course experience are concerns.
East Hampton KTB Fit 57/100
East Hampton is a smart performer who ran to a high level when second on reappearance last time, backed by an RPR of 117. He has shown little on his two previous visits to Leopardstown, finishing fourth and seventh without placing, and his record on soft ground is also modest with no win or place from two runs. The Marnane yard has a modest 4% strike rate at the track from 370 runs with an A/E of 0.49, though Luke McAteer is 11% from 159 rides here with an A/E of 1.22. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the four-year-old has recent form of 5260-2. The negatives around course and ground limit his appeal despite the promising return.
The rest of the field
Oh CeceliaKTB Fit 56/100
Oh Cecelia is a smart performer who has been consistent this year with three wins from six starts and a solid RPR of 112. Stepping up from 6f to 7f for the first time today having failed to trouble the judge on her only previous try at the distance, the trainer’s modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 215 runs with an A/E of 0.72 adds a note of caution. She goes well on soft ground with two wins from four starts and four places, is drawn low in stall 1, and has recent form of 615132.
Wannabe RoyalKTB Fit 52/100
Wannabe Royal is a smart performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a placed effort from his last three starts with recent form of 34-581. He has won on soft ground and at this trip but makes his first start at Leopardstown where both trainer and jockey have modest 8% strike rates from large samples. The Henry De Bromhead yard is 8% from 694 runs here with an A/E of 0.75, while Ronan Whelan is also 8% from 572 rides with an A/E of 0.86. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he has an RPR of 110.
Zodiac BearKTB Fit 48/100
Zodiac Bear is a smart performer who won a C&D maiden on his second start and then shaped well when third in this race last year from an unfavoured draw. He has won at this trip and at this track from just three career runs with recent form of 013-, and holds an RPR of 108. The J P Murtagh yard has a 9% strike rate here from 435 runs with an A/E of 0.76, while jockey Ben Coen is operating at 7% from 357 rides at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.69. Usually held up, he has been placed once from two starts on soft ground.
Redemption RoadKTB Fit 43/100
Redemption Road is a smart performer who has run to a high level on several occasions and finished a solid third over 1m here last time with recent form of 28-336. Dropping back to 7f where he is 1-3 and that looks a more suitable trip though he is unproven on soft ground with no runs on it. The Marnane yard and Robbie Colgan both have modest records at Leopardstown, the trainer 4% from 370 runs with an A/E of 0.49 and the jockey 4% from 406 rides with an A/E of 0.66. He has an RPR of 109 and placed on his only previous course visit.
KTB verdict
Native Warrior stands out at the top of the KTB Fit ratings and brings the best recent form to the table along with a strong RPR of 120. His record at the trip, proven ability on soft ground and the yard's excellent record at Leopardstown all strengthen the case for the selection, who is expected to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine gallop. Audience and Celestial Orbit both have smart figures in the 112-116 range and prominent run-styles that could see them to the fore, while East Hampton showed promise on his return but has course and ground question marks. Zodiac Bear's C&D placing last year also makes him worthy of respect in a competitive Group 3.
KTB Selection Native Warrior
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Leopardstown?
Native Warrior's trainer K R Burke has a 32% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.96 from 19 runs.
How many horses are proven winners on soft ground?
Native Warrior, Oh Cecelia and Wannabe Royal are all proven winners on soft ground.
Which runners are likely to contest the lead early?
Wannabe Royal tends to make the running, while Audience, Celestial Orbit and Oh Cecelia usually race handily on or close to the lead.
Has any horse in the field won over the course and distance?
Zodiac Bear won a C&D maiden on his second start.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Oh Cecelia is stepping up from 6f to 7f for the first time today.
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