6:00 Leopardstown
This 7f35y Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Leopardstown on soft ground features a field of 15 three-year-olds and upwards with no obvious leader. The KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. Cromac Quay tops the KTB Fit ratings on the back of two promising efforts while several well-bred newcomers add depth to what looks an interesting maiden.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any obvious leader, the race is expected to be run at a steady gallop in which those positioned handy can turn the screw from the two-furlong pole. Several principals, including Cromac Quay and Slaney View, tend to settle in midfield and will look to improve from there while hold-up performers such as Expert Dancer may need the race to fall just right. The key question is whether the drop to 7f will suit those who have shown their best form over further, or whether the pedigree newcomers can capitalise on the tactical set-up.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cromac Quay KTB Selection61/100Cromac Quay has shown useful ability in two runs, finishing third on course debut here and then a close second at Naas.
- 2Blooming Rose54/100Blooming Rose is a 850,000 euro yearling by Blue Point and a half-sister to last weekend's Coronation Cup winner Bay City Roller.
- 3Slaney View53/100Slaney View is a fair performer on his best figures but has failed to build on early promise.
- 4Expert Dancer50/100Expert Dancer is a fair 3 year old who has made the frame in four of five starts and is back in trip to 7f where he has been placed both times.
- 5Banish Misfortune47/100Banish Misfortune is a first foal who cost only 1,000 euros as a yearling.
- 6Make The Tide46/100Make The Tide showed very little on her two starts to date, finishing eighth on course debut over a mile here and then again at Dundalk over this trip.
- 7Sydney Dollars45/100Sydney Dollars showed little on her debut over 1m at Naas last month after a slow start ruined her chance.
- 8Siesta Senorita43/100Siesta Senorita is a newcomer who cost 8,000 euros as a yearling.
- 9Into Tomorrow42/100Limited filly who showed only modest form when finishing fourth of 12 on her Cork debut last month.
- 10Miss Moore Cen41/100Modest filly who has shown ordinary form in two starts this year.
- 11Lecale Breeze41/100Lecale Breeze is a newcomer who fetched just 1,000 euros as a yearling and is closely related to an Italian 7.5f winner.
- 12Ebony Reign41/100Ebony Reign is a Ten Sovereigns filly who fetched 32,000 euros as a yearling.
- 13Quafftide36/100Quafftide showed little on debut at the Curragh then ran poorly when stepped up to 1m at Naas, leaving him with a limited RPR of 45.
- 14Mullacurry Maid34/100Mullacurry Maid showed little in three maidens last year and ended with a very modest RPR of 36.
- 15Monamie31/100Monamie has shown very little in two starts, finishing well beaten on debut at Roscommon and then tailed off at 400-1 at Fairyhouse.
The contenders
Cromac Quay KTB Fit 61/100
Cromac Quay has shown useful ability in two starts, finishing third on her course debut here and then a close second at Naas. Dropping back from a mile to this untried 7f distance poses a fresh question while she remains lightly raced. The yard has a 9% strike rate from 1817 runs at Leopardstown and Shane Foley is 11% from 991 rides here. She holds an RPR of 96 and sits top of the KTB Fit ratings on 61. With a tendency to race in midfield she should be well placed to strike if the steady pace shape unfolds as expected. Connections will be hopeful the soft ground does not prove a hindrance given she is unproven on it.
Blooming Rose KTB Fit 54/100
Blooming Rose is an 850,000 euro yearling by Blue Point and a half-sister to last weekend's Coronation Cup winner Bay City Roller. She looked an exciting prospect when easily winning a 7f Naas barrier trial last month. Connections are in decent form at Leopardstown with respective 12% and 13% strike rates for trainer and jockey. By Blue Point she carries a 13% overall win rate pedigree. She is a leading contender on pedigree and the KTB Fit rating of 54 while the draw in stall 1 could prove ideal in a steadily-run affair. This looks a significant step up in class but her trial performance suggests she could be up to the task.
Slaney View KTB Fit 53/100
Slaney View is a fair performer on his best figures but has failed to build on early promise. He showed some ability in maidens on soft ground yet has since run poorly in a Group 3 here and a Curragh handicap, finishing nearer last than first on his most recent start. First-time cheekpieces are now fitted while the Bolger yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Leopardstown and McDonogh rides with a 9% record at the track. An RPR of 77 and TS of 68 underline that he has the ability to be competitive on his best day. He has placed once from one run on soft and his mid-division run style should suit the expected pace. The headgear is a notable addition as he attempts to rediscover his earlier promise.
Expert Dancer KTB Fit 50/100
Expert Dancer is a fair 3 year old who has made the frame in four of five starts and is back in trip to 7f where he has been placed both times. He showed his best form on soft to heavy ground earlier in the year yet ran below par on good going at the Curragh last time when the visor was left off. Trainer Andrew Slattery has a 6% strike rate from 189 runs at Leopardstown while jockey Ben Coen is on 7% from 357 rides here. With an RPR of 85 and TS of 78 he brings solid form credentials to the race. His held-up style means he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical contest. The return to softer ground could spark a revival after his latest effort.
Banish Misfortune KTB Fit 47/100
Banish Misfortune is a first foal who cost only 1,000 euros as a yearling. The dam was unraced yet is a sister to useful dual-purpose winner Snookered, though the immediate family does not look strong enough to make this a likely debut winner. With low data confidence, a wide draw in stall 14 and a jockey operating at a 5% strike rate here, the newcomer is best watched. By Unfortunately she carries a 9% overall win rate pedigree. The trainer has no Leopardstown record from six runs overall. She sits fifth in the KTB Fit ratings and will need to show significant improvement on what the pedigree suggests to trouble the principals.
The rest of the field
Make The TideKTB Fit 46/100
Make The Tide showed very little on her two starts to date, finishing eighth on course debut over a mile here and then again at Dundalk over this trip. She is a modest performer on the figures available and the yard has a modest record at Leopardstown. The jockey also strikes at a modest 8% rate here from a big sample of rides.
Sydney DollarsKTB Fit 45/100
Sydney Dollars showed little on her debut over 1m at Naas last month after a slow start ruined her chance. She drops back to 7f now which asks a fresh question of this lightly raced Mehmas filly who cost 40,000 euros as a yearling. The yard has a 5% strike rate from 241 runs at Leopardstown while Carroll is 7% from 617 rides here.
Siesta SenoritaKTB Fit 43/100
Siesta Senorita is a newcomer who cost 8,000 euros as a yearling. Her dam was well beaten over 6f to 1m and she is half-sister to the smart 5f two-year-old Group 3 winner Royal Razalma. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown and this lightly-raced filly can only be watched on debut.
Into TomorrowKTB Fit 42/100
Limited filly who showed only modest form when finishing fourth of 12 on her Cork debut last month. She was beaten 8.5 lengths on soft to heavy ground over this trip and will need to improve markedly to figure prominently here. Trainer has a 5% strike rate from 41 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey fares slightly better with 10% from 52 rides.
Miss Moore CenKTB Fit 41/100
Modest filly who has shown ordinary form in two starts this year. She finished midfield on debut over 6f at the Curragh on soft ground then ran to a similar level when fifth of 14 over this trip at Down Royal. Trainer is operating at a 0% strike rate from 13 runs here while the jockey has a modest 5% record from 73 rides at Leopardstown.
Lecale BreezeKTB Fit 41/100
Lecale Breeze is a newcomer who fetched just 1,000 euros as a yearling and is closely related to an Italian 7.5f winner. First-time headgear and tongue-tie suggest connections are already looking for help. The trainer has yet to score from 29 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate here from 97 rides.
Ebony ReignKTB Fit 41/100
Ebony Reign is a Ten Sovereigns filly who fetched 32,000 euros as a yearling. She is a sister to a useful 6f two-year-old winner and closely related to another sprint scorer, though she could only finish fourth in a Naas barrier trial behind Blooming Rose. With no racecourse form, low data confidence and a trainer with a very small Leopardstown sample, this looks like one for the longer term.
QuafftideKTB Fit 36/100
Quafftide showed little on debut at the Curragh then ran poorly when stepped up to 1m at Naas, leaving him with a limited RPR of 45. He now drops back to 7f after 243 days off the track, though the small sample makes it impossible to know how the soft ground will suit. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Leopardstown from 204 runs while the jockey is on 4% from 406 rides here.
Mullacurry MaidKTB Fit 34/100
Mullacurry Maid showed little in three maidens last year and ended with a very modest RPR of 36. She drops back from 1m2½f to 7f having already been beaten at today's trip. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 115 runs while jockey Rory Cleary is operating at 6% from 661 rides here.
MonamieKTB Fit 31/100
Monamie has shown very little in two starts, finishing well beaten on debut at Roscommon and then tailed off at 400-1 at Fairyhouse. The drop back to 7f is an unknown at this stage while the limited ability on display so far matches her modest RPR of 22. Trainer Paul W Flynn has a 6% strike rate from 159 runs at Leopardstown and jockey Robert Whearty is 2% from 83 rides here.
KTB verdict
Cromac Quay is the KTB Selection. She has shown useful ability in two runs, finishing third on course debut here and then a close second at Naas, and her RPR of 96 sets a clear standard. The drop back to 7f is an unknown but her lightly raced profile and the yard's record at the track keep her at the head of affairs. Blooming Rose, with her fine pedigree and barrier trial success, is the most obvious danger while Slaney View and Expert Dancer can also go well if the first-time headgear and return to soft ground respectively bring about the required improvement.
KTB Selection Cromac Quay
This is the narrative read of the 6:00 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lack of an obvious leader affect the race shape?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence so the race is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which principals are proven on soft ground?
Slaney View is placed once from one run on soft while Expert Dancer showed his best form on soft to heavy earlier in the year; Cromac Quay and Blooming Rose are unproven on the surface.
What is the significance of first-time headgear in the race?
Slaney View runs in first-time cheekpieces while Lecale Breeze runs in first-time headgear and tongue-tie.
Which horse has the highest official rating among those with figures?
Cromac Quay has the highest RPR of 96.
How many of the principals tend to race in midfield?
Cromac Quay and Slaney View typically settle in midfield while Expert Dancer is usually held up.
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