6:30 Leopardstown
This 16-runner GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap over 7f35y at Leopardstown on soft ground features a competitive but largely modest field where the KTB Fit Scores top out at 61. Only One Scobie heads the ratings on the back of a course win as a juvenile, while several others bring recent placed efforts or handicap wins yet carry questions over the going or their overall form. The numbers point to a race that could be decided late given the strong pace anticipated and the prevalence of hold-up types.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Shoot To Kill and Free Solo who tend to make the running or race prominently. This sets up a test where the early speed could collapse in the latter stages on soft ground, favouring those with late kicks from midfield or the rear. The key question is whether any prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall to a hold-up horse coming from off the pace, with Only One Scobie, Loingseoir and Fortuity all noted for producing their efforts late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Only One Scobie KTB Selection61/100Fair performer who won over 7f here on debut last year but has been largely disappointing since.
- 2Shoot To Kill53/100Shoot To Kill is a fair handicapper who has been placed on his last two starts and showed his best form when second over this trip at the track last time.
- 3Loingseoir53/100Modest performer who has shown up well at this track with placed efforts on all three visits.
- 4Meriden51/100Meriden has improved sharply since switched to handicaps and looks a fair performer on recent evidence.
- 5Fortuity47/100Modest performer who has improved for the switch to handicaps and made all to win at Fairyhouse over this trip on good ground two weeks ago.
- 6Are You In Or Out46/100Modest performer who won over 6f at this track last time but is now stepping up in trip.
- 7Green Kite46/100Green Kite has shown fair form without winning in six starts, with his best effort a 5.5-length second in a Killarney maiden on soft ground last October.
- 8Dinamine45/100Fair performer who ran well over this trip on his final start last season but was well below that form on return at this track.
- 9Free Solo44/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 10Racing Royalty44/100Racing Royalty is a fair handicapper who has dropped to a workable mark but arrives on the back of two modest efforts.
- 11Tawaazon44/100Tawaazon is a modest performer who ran respectably when fourth on his return at Naas last month.
- 12Charming Whisper44/100Modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 13Sayfa Fad43/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form at this track including a second last year but has failed to build on it.
- 14Minaun View43/100Minaun View is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 16 starts.
- 15Lar Na Coille41/100Modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now starts handicap life from an opening mark of 67.
- 16Zheleznaya Dama36/100Modest filly who showed her best effort when third at Down Royal over this trip on her final start as a juvenile.
The contenders
Only One Scobie KTB Fit 61/100
Only One Scobie is a fair performer who won over 7f here on debut last year but has been largely disappointing since. Dropping back from a mile should suit and the course record is a positive yet the soft-ground run offers no encouragement and recent form is patchy at best. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which aligns well with the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. Trainer Paul W Flynn has a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 159 runs with an A/E of 0.81, which is offset by Luke McAteer's solid 11% strike rate at the track from 159 rides with an A/E of 1.22. He holds an RPR of 83 and a TS of 59 with recent form figures of 006001.
Shoot To Kill KTB Fit 53/100
Shoot To Kill is a fair handicapper who has been placed on his last two starts and showed his best form when second over this trip at the track last time. The nine-year-old acts on soft ground, having been placed once from two starts on it without winning, and has a course record of one placing from four runs. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will be key in a race where the strong pace could collapse late. Trainer Noel C Kelly has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from 22 runs with an A/E of 0, though jockey Patrick McGettigan rides at a 16% strike rate here from 25 rides with an A/E of 1.64. He holds an RPR of 75 and a TS of 44 with recent form figures of 7-0032.
Loingseoir KTB Fit 53/100
Loingseoir is a modest performer who has shown up well at this track with placed efforts on all three visits. The ten-year-old has a win at today's trip but is only 1-9 on soft ground and his recent form is nothing to shout about with figures of 10-974. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited if the strong pace collapses. Trainer M C Grassick has a 7% strike rate at Leopardstown from 74 runs with an A/E of 1.03, while jockey Jack Cleary operates at 10% from 68 rides with an A/E of 0.93. He holds an RPR of 73 and a TS of 56, though the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal.
Meriden KTB Fit 51/100
Meriden has improved sharply since switched to handicaps and looks a fair performer on recent evidence with an RPR of 77 and a TS of 62. She has won her last two starts at this trip and over 6f while showing a good turn of foot both times, though the 14lb rise demands more again from stall 15. The three-year-old typically settles in midfield. Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan has a 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 278 runs with an A/E of 0.7, while jockey J M Sheridan rides at 7% from 160 rides with an A/E of 0.81. She has one run on soft with no win or place and no course form on record, with recent form figures of 860611.
Fortuity KTB Fit 47/100
Fortuity is a modest performer who has improved for the switch to handicaps and made all to win at Fairyhouse over this trip on good ground two weeks ago. That effort showed a good attitude after racing keenly and the three-year-old has the inside draw here in his favour from stall 1. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should appreciate a strong pace that collapses. Trainer Mrs John Harrington has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1817 runs with an A/E of 0.82, while jockey Shane Foley operates at 11% from 991 rides with an A/E of 0.9. He holds an RPR of 71 and a TS of 56 with recent form figures of 99-021, though the soft ground is an unknown with only one run on it and no course form.
The rest of the field
Are You In Or OutKTB Fit 46/100
Are You In Or Out is a modest performer who won over 6f at this track last time but is now stepping up in trip. He has won at 7f in the past yet his recent efforts at this distance have been poor and he has never scored on soft ground, with one placing from two starts on it. Trainer remains winless from six runs here while the jockey's modest strike rate adds little confidence, though he has course-and-distance winning form.
Green KiteKTB Fit 46/100
Green Kite has shown fair form without winning in six starts, with his best effort a 5.5-length second in a Killarney maiden on soft ground last October. He has shaped with mild promise in two runs this season including a fourth of six in a Gowran claimer 22 days ago, though he has failed to land a blow at this trip in two attempts. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 49 runs here while Colin Keane has a 14% record from 868 rides at the track. He is unproven on soft in handicaps with no course form.
DinamineKTB Fit 45/100
Dinamine is a fair performer who ran well over this trip on his final start last season but was well below that form on return at this track. He has a modest record on soft ground with no wins or places from three starts and is 0-1 here. Trainer and jockey both have poor strike rates at Leopardstown.
Free SoloKTB Fit 44/100
Free Solo is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has placed here without winning and has shown he can be competitive on soft ground with one placing from six starts, though both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Leopardstown. The trip is no issue as he has won over it four times from 30 starts.
Racing RoyaltyKTB Fit 44/100
Racing Royalty is a fair handicapper who has dropped to a workable mark but arrives on the back of two modest efforts. He has shown some ability at this track without winning and handles soft ground with a win and three places from nine starts. The yard has yet to strike at Leopardstown from 12 runners while the trip looks suitable given two wins from 20 attempts.
TawaazonKTB Fit 44/100
Tawaazon is a modest performer who ran respectably when fourth on his return at Naas last month. He has two wins from four starts on soft ground and has won over today's trip in the past though he steps back up from 6f today. The yard has a poor record here and he was well held on his only previous run at Leopardstown.
Charming WhisperKTB Fit 44/100
Charming Whisper is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won over this trip in the past yet is 0-4 on soft ground and makes his first start at Leopardstown from a wide draw. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
Sayfa FadKTB Fit 43/100
Sayfa Fad is a modest performer who has shown bits of form at this track including a second last year but has failed to build on it. Dropping back to 7f is an interesting move after a string of poor efforts over longer trips though he has never won at the distance either. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here and the soft ground adds another question after just one unplaced run on it.
Minaun ViewKTB Fit 43/100
Minaun View is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 16 starts. He has shown some ability at this trip but was well held on his only previous run here and has failed to place on his one soft-ground start. The trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown.
Lar Na CoilleKTB Fit 41/100
Lar Na Coille is a modest performer who has shown little in three maidens and now starts handicap life from an opening mark of 67. His best effort came when sixth of 23 at Navan over 6f on soft ground in October but he was well held at the Curragh on his latest start. Trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample while jockey operates at 9%.
Zheleznaya DamaKTB Fit 36/100
Zheleznaya Dama is a modest filly who showed her best effort when third at Down Royal over this trip on her final start as a juvenile. She has since been off for 279 days and now tries soft ground for the first time. Trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Leopardstown from 90 runs while the jockey is 6% from 661 rides here.
KTB verdict
Only One Scobie is the KTB Selection. He brings a course win over this trip on debut last year, drops back from a mile which should suit, and his hold-up run style is well placed if the strong pace collapses late on soft ground. The jockey's solid record at Leopardstown helps offset the trainer's modest strike rate at the venue. His main dangers are Shoot To Kill, who has been placed on his last two starts including a second over course and distance last time and acts on the ground, and Loingseoir, who has placed on all three visits to the track despite the wide draw and modest recent form.
KTB Selection Only One Scobie
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most likely to set the strong pace?
Shoot To Kill and Free Solo both tend to make the running or race on the pace, while Tawaazon usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Only One Scobie, Loingseoir and Fortuity.
Which horses have previous placed form at Leopardstown?
Shoot To Kill has been placed once from four runs here, Loingseoir has been placed on all three visits, Free Solo has placed without winning from three runs, and Sayfa Fad has a second from four runs at the track.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Leopardstown in this race?
J S Bolger has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3175 runs, while M C Grassick is at 7% from 74 runs and Paul W Flynn at 6% from 159 runs.
How many horses in the field are unproven on soft ground?
Green Kite has no runs on soft, while Only One Scobie, Meriden, Fortuity, Minaun View, Lar Na Coille, Zheleznaya Dama and Sayfa Fad each have one unplaced run on the surface.
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