7:30 Leicester
A competitive Class 5 handicap over six furlongs at Leicester on good to soft ground brings together a field of ten, including several three-year-olds stepping up or down in class alongside more experienced handicappers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Mumayaz and Under The Twilight sharing a 58 rating, followed closely by Obsidian Verse on 57, indicating a race where small margins and the ability to handle the conditions could prove decisive. Recent form is mixed, with course winners and placed horses in the mix, and the trainer and jockey combinations at Leicester add another layer of interest given the varying strike rates on show.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be run at a genuine gallop, with several prominent runners and a couple of confirmed front-runners in the field. Under The Twilight from stall one is likely to be ridden positively, while Mumayaz and Fenlander can also go forward. The key question is whether the early pace collapses or if the leaders get a soft enough time up front on this good to soft surface, with those coming from off the pace needing to time their challenge perfectly.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mumayaz58/100
- 2Under The Twilight KTB Selection58/100
- 3Obsidian Verse57/100
- 4Numero Vingt53/100
- 5Koffee And Kale52/100
- 6Angels' Share49/100
- 7Jersey Maverick47/100
- 8Fenlander46/100
- 9Cypriot Diaspora42/100
- 10Magic Lady Mae40/100
The contenders
Mumayaz KTB Fit 58/100
Mumayaz arrives with solid recent form figures of 624614 and boasts a course record of one win from two starts at Leicester. The seven-year-old is trained by Tony Carroll, who has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 686 runs, and is partnered by Silvestre De Sousa, whose 21% strike rate and A/E of 1.11 from 312 rides at Leicester mark him out as a strong booking. While he has only had one run on good to soft ground without placing, his ability to win here previously suggests he handles the venue. The combination of his proven course form and the trainer-jockey partnership that has produced a 3/25 record with an A/E of 0.98 and positive LSP of +£16.00 gives him every chance in a race where his prominent run style could be an asset.
Under The Twilight KTB Fit 58/100
Under The Twilight, the KTB selection, is an eight-year-old dropping in class with recent form of 78-624. Trained by Michael Blake, who holds an 18% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 1.1 from 39 runs, he is ridden by Liam Wright claiming 5lb, though the jockey's Leicester record stands at 7% with an A/E of 0.66 from 15 rides. He has shown he handles good to soft ground with one win from three starts and one place, and he was placed on his only previous run at the course. The drop in class looks a positive move, and from draw one his forward run style should allow him to take a prominent position in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. His overall profile suggests he is well placed to capitalise on any softening up of the leaders.
Obsidian Verse KTB Fit 57/100
Obsidian Verse is a three-year-old stepping up in class with recent form of 845-81, which includes a latest win. James Fanshawe trains him with an 18% strike rate at Leicester and an A/E of 1.03 from 346 runs, while Jack Mitchell rides with a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.34 from 131 rides at the track, backed by a trainer-jockey record of 8/60 with an A/E of 0.88 and LSP of +£76.24. He has had two runs on good to soft without placing and has no previous course form. His upward trajectory as a three-year-old gives him clear ability in this field, and the combination with the yard and jockey statistics suggests he must be respected despite the class rise and his tendency to race prominently.
Numero Vingt KTB Fit 53/100
Numero Vingt is a three-year-old dropping in class with form figures of -11607. Archie Watson's operation has a 15% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 0.77 from 100 runs, and the trainer-jockey partnership with Harry Vigors claiming 7lb reads 5/22 with an A/E of 1.58 and LSP of +£0.75. The colt has had one run on good to soft without placing and has no course form. While his ability has been patchy of late, the drop in class could help him rediscover the form that saw him win earlier in the campaign, and his run style that sees him race prominently could see him benefit if the pace shape plays out in favour of those up front.
Koffee And Kale KTB Fit 52/100
Koffee And Kale is a three-year-old with consistent recent form of 331-32 and a course record of one win from one start at Leicester. Michael Bell trains with an 11% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 0.82 from 529 runs, while Ross Coakley rides with a 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.7 from 50 rides, though their combined record is 0/5. He has shown he acts on good to soft with one win and one place from two starts. His course win marks him out as effective here, and his generally progressive profile as a three-year-old with a prominent run style means he should be involved in the shake-up, particularly if the leaders go hard early.
The rest of the field
Angels' ShareKTB Fit 49/100
Angels' Share is a three-year-old with form of 110-89 and no course record. William Knight and Daniel Muscutt combine with a 3/36 record, A/E 0.72 and LSP of +£1.50, while the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 0.69; the jockey is 14% with an A/E of 0.95. One run on good to soft brought no win or place.
Jersey MaverickKTB Fit 47/100
Jersey Maverick is a four-year-old dropping in class with form of 42-628 and no course record. Charlie Fellowes and Paddy Bradley have a 10/43 record with A/E 1.47 and LSP of +£67.32; the trainer is 13% at Leicester with A/E 0.78 and the jockey is 0/14 at the track. Two runs on good to soft brought no win or place.
FenlanderKTB Fit 46/100
Fenlander is a five-year-old with form of 3-2361, a course record of one win from four starts at Leicester. Pam Sly has a 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.17 from 257 runs; Christian Howarth rides with a 6% strike rate and A/E of 0.65 from 33 rides at Leicester. One run on good to soft brought no win or place.
Cypriot DiasporaKTB Fit 42/100
Cypriot Diaspora is a five-year-old with form of 06-598 and a course record of one win from six starts at Leicester. Rod Millman and Lewis Edmunds have a 33/209 record with A/E 1.14 and LSP of +£6.52; the trainer is 8% at Leicester with A/E 0.79 and the jockey 9% with A/E 0.76. Two wins from seven on good to soft with two places.
Magic Lady MaeKTB Fit 40/100
Magic Lady Mae is a non-runner. The three-year-old was dropping in class with form of 0-3677 and no course record; Richard Hannon has a 13% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 0.88 from 361 runs. She has had no runs on good to soft and remains unproven on the ground.
KTB verdict
Under The Twilight is the KTB selection in a race where the tightly packed Fit scores suggest it will take a strong effort to dominate. His drop in class, placed effort at the course, and proven ability on good to soft ground from a good draw all point to him being able to dictate or track the pace effectively. Mumayaz, with his course win and strong jockey booking, and the progressive three-year-old Obsidian Verse are the most obvious dangers, while Koffee And Kale's course success and consistency also make him a live contender in what looks a typically trappy Leicester handicap.
KTB Selection Under The Twilight
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:31 UTC, 13 Jun. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Mumayaz | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Under The Twilight | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Obsidian Verse | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| Numero Vingt | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Koffee And Kale | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Angels' Share | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Jersey Maverick | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Fenlander | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Cypriot Diaspora | 16/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Leicester?
Mumayaz has won here from two starts, while Koffee And Kale and Fenlander have each won once at the track; Under The Twilight has been placed once and Cypriot Diaspora has one win from six runs.
How does the class change affect the main contenders?
Under The Twilight and Numero Vingt are dropping in class, Obsidian Verse is stepping up in class, and Jersey Maverick is also dropping in class; Magic Lady Mae was dropping in class but is a non-runner.
Which runners have proven form on good to soft ground?
Under The Twilight has one win from three runs on good to soft with one place, Koffee And Kale has one win from two with one place, and Cypriot Diaspora has two wins from seven with two places; several others have limited or no placed form on the surface.
Who are the leading trainer and jockey combinations at Leicester in this race?
Jack Mitchell has a 20% strike rate at Leicester with A/E 1.34, Silvestre De Sousa is 21% with A/E 1.11, and Michael Blake has an 18% strike rate with A/E 1.1; the Fanshawe-Mitchell partnership is 8/60 with A/E 0.88.
What does the pace shape suggest for the race?
The race is likely to be run at a genuine gallop with several prominent runners and front-runners, posing the question of whether the pace will collapse or if those coming from off the pace can close effectively.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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