4:05 Doncaster
This Class 5 handicap over 7f at Doncaster on good to soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others bring recent winning form or placed efforts at the track. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Tennessee Gold, Alpha Capture and Jenever all rated in the low sixties, underlining a competitive contest where course and distance placings, ground preferences and the first-time headgear on the selection could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a race that will be decided by which horse adapts best to the step up in trip or the prevailing conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run affair with a mix of front-runners and prominent racers likely to contest the early lead from the lower stalls. Green Pursuit and Wrydcroft are expected to be forward, while several others including Beale Street from stall four can race handily. The key question is whether the rail draw holders can maintain their position on the good to soft surface or if the race will be won from mid-division or off a strong pace up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tennessee Gold KTB Selection63/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been struggling for form lately with a string of ordinary efforts.
- 2Alpha Capture62/100Fair sort who has been running consistently this year without winning.
- 3Jenever62/100Jenever is a fair handicapper who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts.
- 4Wrydcroft60/100Wrydcroft is a modest performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last four starts.
- 5Green Pursuit55/100Modest performer who has shown occasional competitiveness on good to soft ground without winning.
- 6Caragio53/100Caragio is a modest performer with a mixed record over the last year that includes two wins but also several below-par efforts.
- 7Highfield Viking52/100Modest performer who has won once from three starts at Doncaster and is 3 from 26 at this trip.
- 8Mister Mojito50/100Mister Mojito is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability, finishing no better than fifth in four runs since his last win.
- 9The Childe Of Hale50/100Modest performer who won over this trip as a 2yo and has scored once in two runs at Doncaster.
- 10Magic Boy49/100Modest performer who showed his best form when winning a 7f handicap on AW last winter before a solid second on his return over 6f.
- 11Tardaff49/100Tardaff has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his two attempts and now drops back from 1m after a poor return at that distance.
- 12Beale Street45/100Modest performer who has run well here twice without winning and is drawn nicely in stall four.
- 13Mereside Madness40/100Limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives on the back of four poor efforts.
The contenders
Tennessee Gold KTB Fit 63/100
Tennessee Gold is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been struggling for form lately with a string of ordinary efforts. First time headgear is tried today while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. The yard of Joseph Parr holds a 23% strike rate at Doncaster with a positive A/E of 1.49 from 13 runs, and Daniel Muscutt adds his own 15% strike rate at the track from 200 rides. Recent form of -47968 offers little encouragement on the face of it yet the selection is given the nod by the KTB numbers. His ability to handle 7f has been shown before and the first-time headgear may spark improvement in a race where his draw in stall 10 need not be a disadvantage if the pace is strong.
Alpha Capture KTB Fit 62/100
Alpha Capture is a fair sort who has been running consistently this year without winning. Placed on his only previous try over this trip and showed his best form when second over course and distance on soft ground last season. He steps up from 6f today which asks a fresh question while the yard’s modest strike-rate here is at least in line with expectations. Kevin Stott takes the ride with an 11% strike rate at Doncaster from 253 rides. The drop in class is a positive and his record of one win from four on good to soft plus a placing on his second run here last term suggest he should be competitive again.
Jenever KTB Fit 62/100
Jenever is a fair handicapper who has been out of form for a while with a string of modest efforts. He has run well here in the past though and his record on good to soft ground reads strongly with two wins from only three starts. The step up to 7f is an unknown at this stage of his career. Lewis Edmunds partners him for a yard with an 11% strike rate at the track and positive A/E of 1.31. Course form of fifth and second without a win still reads respectably, and the drop in class may help him return to something closer to his best.
Wrydcroft KTB Fit 60/100
Wrydcroft is a modest performer who arrives in excellent order with three wins from his last four starts. He handles good to soft ground well having won both starts on it and has already shown he can win at this trip and around this track. The yard's modest record here is a slight negative though the horse's own course form reads strongly. Rose Dawes claims 5lb and brings an 18% strike rate at Doncaster from a small sample. Recent form of 18-112 underlines his current confidence and from stall three he is likely to be prominent throughout.
Green Pursuit KTB Fit 55/100
Green Pursuit is a modest performer who has shown occasional competitiveness on good to soft ground without winning. Placed twice at this trip from eight attempts and has one placing from two runs on similar going though his three runs here have produced no better than seventh. Trainer Seb Spencer records a steady 8% strike rate at Doncaster from 53 runs while Dale Swift takes the mount. Recent efforts of 20-053 show some signs of life and from a low draw he can be involved early, yet overall he looks a notch below the principals on balance.
The rest of the field
CaragioKTB Fit 53/100
Caragio is a modest performer with a mixed record over the last year that includes two wins but also several below-par efforts. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before though his sole run on good to soft ground brought no joy. First time at Doncaster for a yard with a small-sample record here and the wide draw add to the unknowns.
Highfield VikingKTB Fit 52/100
Highfield Viking is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Doncaster and is 3 from 26 at this trip. He has been competitive on good to soft ground without winning and the yard’s 12 percent strike rate here comes with a positive A/E. Drawn wide in stall 12 and recent efforts have been ordinary.
Mister MojitoKTB Fit 50/100
Mister Mojito is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability, finishing no better than fifth in four runs since his last win. He has won four times at this trip from 15 attempts but is unproven on good to soft ground and was only fifth when he ran here once before. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 22 runs at Doncaster.
The Childe Of HaleKTB Fit 50/100
The Childe Of Hale is a modest performer who won over this trip as a 2yo and has scored once in two runs at Doncaster. Recent form is poor with two heavy defeats this year but he has dropped to a workable mark and likes good to soft ground. Ivan Furtado has a 7% strike rate at the track from 183 runs while Tom Eaves is the jockey.
Magic BoyKTB Fit 49/100
Magic Boy is a modest performer who showed his best form when winning a 7f handicap on AW last winter before a solid second on his return over 6f. He steps back up to his winning trip today but has no experience of good to soft ground and makes his first visit to Doncaster. Trainer Nigel Tinkler has a 6% strike rate here from 748 runs while Faye McManoman takes the ride.
TardaffKTB Fit 49/100
Tardaff has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his two attempts and now drops back from 1m after a poor return at that distance. He is a modest performer on the balance of his ratings and race history with a lacklustre 12th on his only previous visit to Doncaster. The Ian Williams yard posts an 11% strike rate here from a big sample while Cieren Fallon takes the ride.
Beale StreetKTB Fit 45/100
Beale Street is a modest performer who has run well here twice without winning and is drawn nicely in stall four. Recent form is mixed with two wins this year but nothing placed on his last three starts and he is 0-2 on good to soft ground. Trainer's modest 6 percent strike rate at Doncaster adds little confidence.
Mereside MadnessKTB Fit 40/100
Mereside Madness is a limited performer who has struggled this year and arrives on the back of four poor efforts. Has won over today's trip in the past but looks stretched by this company on recent evidence and was well beaten on his only previous run here. Trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track is at least in line with market expectations.
KTB verdict
Tennessee Gold is the KTB Selection and looks to have been found the right opportunity despite his recent modest efforts. The first-time headgear may sharpen him up at a trip he has won over before, while the trainer's strong record at Doncaster gives every reason to expect a bold show. His main dangers are headed by the consistent Alpha Capture, who brings solid course and distance placed form and a drop in class, and the in-form Wrydcroft who boasts an excellent recent record and proven ability on good to soft. Jenever cannot be entirely dismissed either given his strong ground stats and past efforts here.
KTB Selection Tennessee Gold
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to soft ground but receives first-time headgear?
Tennessee Gold is unproven on good to soft ground and is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many wins has Wrydcroft recorded from his last four starts?
Wrydcroft has three wins from his last four starts.
Which runners have previously placed at Doncaster over this trip?
Alpha Capture was second over course and distance on soft ground last season, while Jenever has been placed twice here.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Doncaster for the yard of the selection?
Joseph Parr has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.49 from 13 runs.
Which horse has won once from three starts at this course?
Highfield Viking has won once from three starts at Doncaster.
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