4:23 Carlisle
A Class 5 Racing TV Fillies' Handicap over 6f195y at Carlisle on good to soft ground brings together ten modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Albeseeingyer heading the numbers on 63, followed closely by Velvet Rhythm on 58 and Sandy Craic on 57. Several runners arrive with question marks over the ground or the track, while the selection has previous winning form at Carlisle that stands out.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even breakdown with no pronounced front-running bias. Several runners, including the selection from draw 7 and the well-drawn Velvet Rhythm and Sandy Craic, are likely to settle in mid-division or come from off the pace. The key question is whether those with proven course form can utilise their experience on this track while the unproven ones on good to soft ground cope with the conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Albeseeingyer KTB Selection63/100Modest performer who has won twice from three runs at Carlisle and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 2Velvet Rhythm58/100Modest performer who has won two of his four starts at today's trip.
- 3Sandy Craic57/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning in eight starts.
- 4Douwantitrightnow54/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after finishing midfield in three runs as a juvenile.
- 5Pickersgill51/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year with a win and a second from his last six starts.
- 6Blufferonthebus49/100Modest performer who has won twice at Carlisle from 12 runs and knows his way around this track.
- 7Sailor's Return49/100Modest performer who has shown little in three runs to date.
- 8Amelia's Joy46/100Modest performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
- 9Sahara Magic42/100Modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut win last year.
- 10Anorah Unleashed33/100Limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven runs and was beaten over six lengths when fifth on her sole start here.
The contenders
Albeseeingyer KTB Fit 63/100
Albeseeingyer is a modest performer who has won twice from three runs at Carlisle and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy but he has run well here in the past and the yard's 25% strike rate at the track is encouraging. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 6/54 record with an A/E of 1.41. He has yet to show his best on good to soft ground having had just two runs on it with no win or place. David Allan takes the ride from draw 7.
Velvet Rhythm KTB Fit 58/100
Velvet Rhythm is a modest performer who has won two of his four starts at today's trip. He drops back from 7.5f having looked as though the extra distance stretched him last time. The trainer strikes at a 16% rate here from 63 runs while the small-sample going data leaves his effectiveness on good to soft unconfirmed with no previous runs on it. Recent form reads 43-114 and he is ridden by Rowan Scott from draw 3. The trainer and jockey show a 6/17 record with an A/E of 1.89.
Sandy Craic KTB Fit 57/100
Sandy Craic is a modest performer who has shown some consistency without winning in eight starts. He has been placed twice at today's trip and ran to a similar level when fifth in a Class 5 at Beverley last time though the yard's modest 11 percent strike rate at Carlisle offers little encouragement. Only one run on good to soft ground so far and this is the first time here. Recent form is -43255 and Mark Winn rides from draw 4. The trainer and jockey combination has a 50/453 record with an A/E of 0.91.
Douwantitrightnow KTB Fit 54/100
Douwantitrightnow is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two starts this season after finishing midfield in three runs as a juvenile. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate from 419 runs at Carlisle while Shane Gray is aboard from stall one. Recent form reads 554-47 and he is dropping in class. He remains unproven on good to soft ground with no previous runs on it.
Pickersgill KTB Fit 51/100
Pickersgill is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with a win and a second from his last six starts. He steps back up to a trip he has won over though he is unproven on good to soft ground and makes his Carlisle debut. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track from a large sample suggests this one will need to improve on recent efforts to figure. Recent form is -47217 and he is ridden by Lauren Young from draw 6.
The rest of the field
BlufferonthebusKTB Fit 49/100
Blufferonthebus is a modest performer who has won twice at Carlisle from 12 runs and knows his way around this track. He has been placed on his last two starts but is dropping back from a mile today having failed to win or place in six runs on good to soft ground.
Sailor's ReturnKTB Fit 49/100
Sailor's Return is a modest performer who has shown little in three runs to date. Recent efforts have been poor with a best of fourth in a 7f maiden at Redcar last time. He is lightly raced with low data confidence and too few runs to judge either the trip or the going.
Amelia's JoyKTB Fit 46/100
Amelia's Joy is a modest performer who has won twice this year including at this trip. She arrives in decent form having won and placed in her last three starts but has no experience of good to soft ground and makes her Carlisle debut. She is stepping up in class.
Sahara MagicKTB Fit 42/100
Sahara Magic is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut win last year. Two placed efforts at this trip offer some hope but the recent efforts have been poor and the yard's modest record at Carlisle does little to inspire confidence. Stall eight looks no help either on this going.
Anorah UnleashedKTB Fit 33/100
Anorah Unleashed is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven runs and was beaten over six lengths when fifth on her sole start here. She steps up in trip today having failed to place in two runs at this distance already. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 17 runs at Carlisle.
KTB verdict
Albeseeingyer is the KTB Selection. He has won twice from three runs at Carlisle and possesses a solid record at this trip, with the yard's strong 25% strike rate at the track adding further encouragement despite patchy recent form. He holds the highest KTB Fit score and has previous course-winning form that few of his rivals can match. The main dangers are Velvet Rhythm, who drops back in trip after looking stretched last time, and Sandy Craic, who has shown consistency at this distance even if the yard's Carlisle record is modest.
KTB Selection Albeseeingyer
This is the narrative read of the 4:23 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Carlisle record in the field?
Albeseeingyer has won twice from three runs at Carlisle and the trainer has a 25% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.98.
How many runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Velvet Rhythm, Douwantitrightnow, Pickersgill, Sailor's Return, Amelia's Joy and Sahara Magic have no runs on good to soft.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Carlisle among those with significant runners?
Steph Hollinshead has a 25% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 2.98 from 28 runs.
Who makes their Carlisle debut in this race?
Sandy Craic, Douwantitrightnow, Pickersgill, Amelia's Joy and Sahara Magic have no course form on record.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from a mile?
Blufferonthebus is dropping back from a mile today.
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