1:50 Chepstow
This Class 6 amateur jockeys' handicap division at Chepstow over 1m2f on good to soft ground brings together a field of limited performers where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. Louie The Legend heads the ratings on 59 with a course win on his sole previous visit, while Alazwar, Pride Of Nepal, Olivia Jane and Showmedemoney follow closely on 56, 52, 50 and 48 respectively. Dropping in class is a positive for several, yet most bring questions over trip, ground or current form after modest recent efforts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even breakdown with no pronounced front-running bias, though several runners have shown a preference for racing prominently or in mid-division. With limited early speed apparent, the race is likely to be run at a sensible gallop that allows those with a bit of toe to position favourably from draws across the track. The key question is whether any of the more exposed handicappers can rediscover a spark at this trip and ground combination, or if the course winner can bounce back dropping back in distance.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Louie The Legend KTB Selection59/100Louie The Legend is a limited horse who won on his only previous visit to Chepstow.
- 2Alazwar56/100Alazwar is a limited handicapper whose recent form has been poor with a string of unplaced efforts.
- 3Pride Of Nepal52/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his better side when winning twice on soft ground in the last month.
- 4Olivia Jane50/100Olivia Jane has shown very little in ten runs and looks limited at this level.
- 5Showmedemoney48/100Showmedemoney is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 421986.
- 6Voix De Bocelli43/100Limited horse who has been on the go for a long time and showed little spark when eighth of nine last time.
- 7Tiger Beetle40/100Limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for a long time and showed only modest form when third of six over 1m here on his sole course visit.
- 8Knightmare40/100Knightmare is a limited performer who has been consistent at a low level lately with form figures of 535432.
- 9The Pug38/100The Pug is a limited handicapper who has been on the go for a long time and showed little spark in recent starts.
- 10Pomeriggio34/100Pomeriggio is a limited performer on the balance of his 27 career runs and recent form of 0830-9.
- 11Summer Evening34/100Summer Evening is a limited performer who has shown no improvement this year and finished well beaten on her last two starts.
The contenders
Louie The Legend KTB Fit 59/100
Louie The Legend is a limited horse who won on his only previous visit to Chepstow. He has shown some ability on good to soft ground with a win and a placing from three runs but has been well below form on his last two starts after a break. Dropping back from 2m to 1m2f today asks a fresh question as he has been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at the trip. The Dylan Cunha yard holds a 33% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 2.56 from just three runs, though the jockey has a 0% strike rate here from one ride. Overall trainer and jockey stats read 5/34 with an A/E of 0.86. He is the KTB Selection.
Alazwar KTB Fit 56/100
Alazwar is a limited handicapper whose recent form has been poor with a string of unplaced efforts. He has won over this trip in the past but has failed to place in seven runs on good to soft ground and makes his first visit to Chepstow today. Trainer Archie Watson has a solid 21% strike rate here from 116 runs while jockey Miss Brodie Hampson has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.45 from 20 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 50/376 with an A/E of 0.82. He drops in class but brings plenty of unknowns to the table.
Pride Of Nepal KTB Fit 52/100
Pride Of Nepal is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his better side when winning twice on soft ground in the last month. He has won over this trip though his record on good to soft is only one placing from four starts. Trainer Tony Carroll has a 9% strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample of 842 runs, while the jockey has a 0% strike rate here from five rides. The trainer and jockey record stands at 11/164 with an A/E of 0.59. He is drawn widest in stall 10 and will need to translate his recent soft-ground success to these conditions.
Olivia Jane KTB Fit 50/100
Olivia Jane has shown very little in ten runs and looks limited at this level. She was well beaten on her only visit to Chepstow and steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at 1m2f. First-time headgear is reached for while both trainer and jockey have a modest record at the track. The yard has a 20% strike rate at Chepstow from five runs with a strong A/E of 5.22, yet the jockey is 0/1 here. She remains unproven on good to soft ground and brings limited appeal.
Showmedemoney KTB Fit 48/100
Showmedemoney is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent sequence of 421986. He steps up to 1m2f today having won at the trip before yet his last run came over a mile so this is a fresh question. The yard has only had two runners at Chepstow so far with a 0% strike rate, while this is the horse's first visit to the track. He has placed once from two runs on good to soft but is yet to win on the surface. The jockey has a neutral record at the course.
The rest of the field
Voix De BocelliKTB Fit 43/100
Voix De Bocelli is a limited horse who has been on the go for a long time and showed little spark when eighth of nine last time. He drops back to a trip he has won at before but is 0-4 on good to soft ground and the yard's record here is poor at 3% from 67 runs. This is his first run at Chepstow.
Tiger BeetleKTB Fit 40/100
Tiger Beetle is a limited performer who has been out of the winner's circle for a long time and showed only modest form when third of six over 1m here on his sole course visit. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past though his recent efforts suggest he is struggling to compete off his current mark. The trainer has a modest 4% strike-rate from 45 runs at Chepstow.
KnightmareKTB Fit 40/100
Knightmare is a limited performer who has been consistent at a low level lately with form figures of 535432. He steps up to 1m2f having been placed once at the trip from two attempts though he is unproven on good to soft ground. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 945 runs at Chepstow while this is the horse's first run at the track.
The PugKTB Fit 38/100
The Pug is a limited handicapper who has been on the go for a long time and showed little spark in recent starts. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won at in the past though the switch to good to soft ground is an unknown. Micky Hammond is 0-12 at Chepstow while this is the horse's first run here.
PomeriggioKTB Fit 34/100
Pomeriggio is a limited performer on the balance of his 27 career runs and recent form of 0830-9. The yard has a modest 2% strike rate from 272 runs at Chepstow while this is his first run here and he remains unproven on good to soft ground. He drops back to 1m2f today having failed to make the frame in two previous attempts at the trip.
Summer EveningKTB Fit 34/100
Summer Evening is a limited performer who has shown no improvement this year and finished well beaten on her last two starts. She has never won in 13 runs, is 0-3 at this trip and was well held on her only attempt on good to soft ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Chepstow adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Louie The Legend is the KTB Selection. He brings the strongest course record of the field with a win on his only previous visit to Chepstow, and dropping in class looks a sensible move for a horse who has shown ability on good to soft. The trip is a question mark having been unsuccessful in two previous attempts at 1m2f, yet his yard's healthy strike rate at the track offers encouragement. Pride Of Nepal and Knightmare are the most obvious dangers given their recent placed efforts, while Alazwar could improve dropping in class if he handles the ground and new venue.
KTB Selection Louie The Legend
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-winning form at Chepstow?
Louie The Legend won here on his only previous visit to Chepstow.
What is the KTB Selection and its Fit Score?
Louie The Legend is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 59/100.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Louie The Legend, Alazwar and Summer Evening are all dropping in class.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Chepstow among the principals?
Dylan Cunha has a 33% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 2.56 from three runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Olivia Jane is fitted with first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies