5:35 Chepstow
This Class 6 handicap over the extended mile at Chepstow forms the second division of the Chepstow Mile Series qualifier on good to soft ground. An eleven-runner field contains plenty of limited performers with modest recent form, and the KTB Fit Scores reflect a race where the top ratings are tightly bunched between 60 and 54. The KTB numbers suggest a contest short on star quality, with several runners unproven on the surface and others carrying patchy course records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a fairly even breakdown with no pronounced front-running bias. Several runners, including Homeland from stall one and Praise Indeed from two, can race prominently, while Hammal and Racing Demon are likely to track the pace from their central draws. The race is likely to be run at a steady gallop early, with the key question being which of the limited performers can find the necessary improvement or capitalise on a first-time headgear or drop in class as the field bunches up in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hammal KTB Selection60/100Hammal has shown very little in three runs this year and his recent form of 6700 reads poorly for a limited performer stepping back into a Class 6.
- 2Racing Demon57/100Racing Demon is a limited performer who has won twice from five runs at this track and drops back to his winning trip today having scored five times over a mile…
- 3Praise Indeed56/100Limited horse who showed very little in three runs last year, finishing eighth of 12 on his only visit to this track.
- 4Homeland55/100Homeland has shown little ability in 16 starts and remains a limited performer at this level.
- 5Rival54/100Rival is a limited performer who has been placed on his last three visits to Chepstow without winning.
- 6Scarfo52/100Scarfo is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed he retains some ability when winning over this trip at this track last time.
- 7Seconds Count50/100Seconds Count is a limited performer on the balance of his eight career runs and recent form of 3649-4.
- 8Desert Charm41/100Desert Charm has shown only limited ability and ran to a similar level when third on return at Kempton last month.
- 9Diamondsinthesand40/100Diamondsinthesand is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with five runs this year producing no better than seventh.
- 10A Rose Adaay39/100Limited performer who has shown some consistency at this track, finishing third twice from three runs here without winning.
- 11Haaf A Diamond30/100Limited performer who has won once over today's trip but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact.
The contenders
Hammal KTB Fit 60/100
Hammal is the KTB Selection despite a modest profile. He has shown very little in three runs this year and his recent form of 6700 reads poorly for a limited performer stepping back into a Class 6. The yard records a 9% strike rate from 11 runs at Chepstow while Joe Leavy has a 15% strike rate from 40 rides here. He has run once at this trip without success and the small sample on good to soft means his effectiveness on the surface remains unknown. From draw five he should be able to track the early pace in a race that lacks a dominant front runner.
Racing Demon KTB Fit 57/100
Racing Demon is a limited performer who has won twice from five runs at this track and drops back to his winning trip today having scored five times over a mile. He has shown bits of form on good to soft but remains winless on the surface from four starts. The yard holds a solid 17% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at a 9% rate from 44 rides. His recent form reads 500-57 and from draw four he is well placed to take a handy position. Course form gives him a clear edge over several rivals.
Praise Indeed KTB Fit 56/100
Praise Indeed is a limited horse who showed very little in three runs last year, finishing eighth of 12 on his only visit to this track. The yard has a solid 21% strike rate here from 19 runs while the 5lb claimer is also operating above the bare numbers at the course. Still early days but he needs to improve plenty on what he has shown so far. Dropping in class may help, yet he remains unproven on good to soft and his sole course effort was unconvincing. Drawn two he can race prominently.
Homeland KTB Fit 55/100
Homeland has shown little ability in 16 starts and remains a limited performer at this level. He ran creditably when third over this trip on his recent return here at Chepstow, though that remains his only placing from seven attempts at the distance. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at the track is a negative, though the 7lb claimer has a strong 15% record from her small sample of rides here. Unproven on good to soft, he has the inside draw and should go forward early in what looks an ordinary contest.
Rival KTB Fit 54/100
Rival is a limited performer who has been placed on his last three visits to Chepstow without winning. He has a win on good to soft but his record at this trip is modest with only one success from 24 starts. The yard has a solid 15 percent strike rate here while the jockey is operating at a 9 percent level. Recent form of 2424-8 suggests he remains competitive at this level on his best days. From a wide draw he will need to settle and come from off the pace.
The rest of the field
ScarfoKTB Fit 52/100
Scarfo is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year but showed he retains some ability when winning over this trip at this track last time. He has won once from five runs here and is placed once from two starts on good to soft ground so the conditions look suitable enough. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate from a huge sample at Chepstow while the 7lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge.
Seconds CountKTB Fit 50/100
Seconds Count is a limited performer on the balance of his eight career runs and recent form of 3649-4. He has placed once at this trip without winning and showed little on his only start on good to soft ground. The yard has an 18% strike rate at Chepstow while Rossa Ryan rides with a 20% record at the track.
Desert CharmKTB Fit 41/100
Desert Charm has shown only limited ability and ran to a similar level when third on return at Kempton last month. He steps up in trip today having won over this distance in the past though that success came on faster ground and he is unproven on good to soft. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate here while the jockey operates closer to expectations with a 14% record from 222 rides at the track.
DiamondsinthesandKTB Fit 40/100
Diamondsinthesand is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with five runs this year producing no better than seventh. He has run ten times at Chepstow without winning though he has been placed and his record on good to soft is sound with two wins and three places from eight starts. The step up from 6f to this 1m trip is an unknown and the 5lb claimer has a modest 4% strike rate here from 23 rides.
A Rose AdaayKTB Fit 39/100
A Rose Adaay is a limited performer who has shown some consistency at this track, finishing third twice from three runs here without winning. Recent form of 306-53 suggests she can be competitive in this grade but lacks real punch at the finish. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Chepstow and the small sample on this ground leaves her suitability untested.
Haaf A DiamondKTB Fit 30/100
Haaf A Diamond is a limited performer who has won once over today's trip but has otherwise struggled to make a serious impact. Has shown a bit of spark on his last two starts yet remains vulnerable in this company and was only fifth when he tried Chepstow before. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
KTB verdict
Hammal is the KTB Selection in a race full of limited performers where the standard is modest. Despite three poor runs this year and an unproven profile on good to soft, he is rated the top horse by the KTB numbers and can take advantage of a field where few boast strong recent form or rock-solid course records. Racing Demon holds the best course statistics having won twice here, while Homeland showed a bit when third over the trip on his return and Rival has been placed on his last three visits to Chepstow. Scarfo brings the most recent winning form but the remainder largely fit the profile of exposed handicappers who find winning difficult.
KTB Selection Hammal
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Chepstow?
Racing Demon has won twice from five runs at the track.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the course?
Praise Indeed's trainer has a 21% strike rate at Chepstow from 19 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Hammal, Praise Indeed, Homeland and Desert Charm have no runs or insufficient data on good to soft.
Has any horse won over this trip at this track recently?
Scarfo won over this trip at this track last time out.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Praise Indeed is dropping in class.
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