6:30 Windsor
This Class 4 restricted novice stakes over 1m2f at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together a field of 13 largely unexposed types, the majority of whom have only a handful of runs between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Cold Fish heading the list on 57, followed by Roi De Coeur on 52 and a cluster around the 50 mark. With so many runners unproven on the surface and at the trip, the race lacks depth and offers limited hard data on which to rely.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is on the steady side with no obvious front-runner declared, which should allow those with a mid-division or prominent run-style an even chance to get into a rhythm. Several horses step up markedly in trip from seven furlongs or a mile, so the key question will be which of the lightly raced 3yos can settle and see out the 1m2f strongly. The wide draws of the top two in the market could prove significant if the race develops into a sprint for the line from the home turn.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Cold Fish KTB Selection57/100Cold Fish has shown steady placed form in both starts and steps up to 1m2f having already been placed at the trip.
- 2Roi De Coeur52/100Roi De Coeur has shown only modest form in two starts to date.
- 3Ice To Meet You50/100Ice To Meet You was well beaten on debut over 7f and now steps up markedly in trip for a race where stamina could be an issue from a wide draw.
- 4Spinney50/100Spinney has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly to figure here.
- 5Egyptian Pharaoh49/100Egyptian Pharaoh has shown fair form in three runs this year finishing second on his latest start over 7f.
- 6Bankatary49/100Bankatary has had just two career starts and steps back from 2m to an untried 1m2f trip today which asks a fresh question.
- 7Zabeel Small48/100Zabeel Small showed promise when runner-up on debut over 1m, suggesting there is ability there.
- 8Adalo47/100Adalo was beaten 13 lengths on debut over 1m and now steps up in trip to 1m2f which asks a fresh question.
- 9Cormorant Rock47/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and recent form of 04 so has been well held both starts.
- 10Fabled Spirit46/100Fabled Spirit has been well beaten on both starts so far and brings very little form to the table.
- 11Sunnie Jim45/100Sunnie Jim has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing seventh of eight then last of seven, and now steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgea…
- 12Clarissa Eclipse42/100Clarissa Eclipse has shown only modest form in two starts so far and has yet to trouble the judge.
- 13Digger One40/100Digger One has had just two career runs and remains lightly raced with limited public form to go on.
The contenders
Cold Fish KTB Fit 57/100
Cold Fish has shown steady placed form in both starts and steps up to 1m2f having already been placed at the trip. The yard records a strong 25% strike rate from 12 runs at Windsor while the jockey operates at a more modest 7% from 111 rides here. With only two career runs data confidence remains low so the colt should be treated with caution. He holds the highest KTB Fit rating of 57 in a race short on established form. His recent figures of 3-3 point to consistency at a modest level, and the step back up in distance looks suitable on what he has shown so far. Unproven on good to firm, he is the KTB Selection.
Roi De Coeur KTB Fit 52/100
Roi De Coeur has shown only modest form in two starts to date. The step up to 1m2f is an unknown that could suit or expose him further. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Windsor, with the yard on 13% from 217 runs and the rider on 12% from 141 rides. His recent figures of 76 reflect that modest level, and he is stepping up in class. With a KTB Fit of 52 he ranks second in the ratings, yet the limited evidence means any assessment must remain guarded. Unproven on good to firm, he represents a yard that can ready one for a big run at this venue.
Ice To Meet You KTB Fit 50/100
Ice To Meet You was well beaten on debut over 7f and now steps up markedly in trip for a race where stamina could be an issue from a wide draw. The yard’s modest 8% strike rate at Windsor from 99 runs offers little encouragement, while Rob Hornby’s 9% record from 423 rides here is equally ordinary. With only one run on the board this is very much a watching brief. His KTB Fit of 50 places him joint-third, but the combination of a wide draw in stall 12, the big trip rise and stepping up in class makes the task look stiff. Unproven on good to firm, he has too many unknowns for serious consideration.
Spinney KTB Fit 50/100
Spinney has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far and needs to improve markedly to figure here. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Windsor from 88 runs while Jack Mitchell is a regular at the track with a 12% record from 311 rides. With so few runs on the board any assessment has to be cautious. His recent figures of 84 underline the modest level, and he holds a KTB Fit of 50. Drawn in stall 5 he has a more favourable post than some of his rivals, yet the form on offer gives him plenty to find. He has one previous run on good to firm without placing.
Egyptian Pharaoh KTB Fit 49/100
Egyptian Pharaoh has shown fair form in three runs this year finishing second on his latest start over 7f. He now steps up to 1m2f for the first time which asks a new question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The yard has no previous runners at Windsor and the jockey operates at a 5% strike rate here from 20 rides. With a KTB Fit of 49 he is the last of the principals, but his recent 4-23 figures mark him out as having more substance than many. The headgear may help him settle on the longer trip, though the lack of a Windsor record for the yard adds an element of guesswork.
The rest of the field
BankataryKTB Fit 49/100
Bankatary has had just two career starts and steps back from 2m to an untried 1m2f trip today which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate from 35 runs at Windsor while Cieren Fallon matches that figure from 104 rides at the track. With so little evidence to go on the form must be treated with caution and he holds a KTB Fit of 49.
Zabeel SmallKTB Fit 48/100
Zabeel Small showed promise when runner-up on debut over 1m, suggesting there is ability there. Stepping up to 1m2f poses a fresh question as a lightly-raced 3-year-old with only one run to go on. James Tate has a 12% strike rate from 68 runs at Windsor while Hector Crouch is operating at 14% from 258 rides here. His KTB Fit is 48.
AdaloKTB Fit 47/100
Adalo was beaten 13 lengths on debut over 1m and now steps up in trip to 1m2f which asks a fresh question. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Windsor from a big sample. With only one run on the board and no other meaningful data points this remains very much a watching brief and he has a KTB Fit of 47.
Cormorant RockKTB Fit 47/100
Cormorant Rock is lightly raced with just two runs this year and recent form of 04 so has been well held both starts. Steps up from 7.5f to 1m2f today which is an unknown and the small sample makes it impossible to judge how the good to firm ground will suit. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Windsor from 387 runs while jockey Pat Cosgrave fares better with 10% from 457 rides here. His KTB Fit is 47.
Fabled SpiritKTB Fit 46/100
Fabled Spirit has been well beaten on both starts so far and brings very little form to the table. The yard has a respectable 13% strike rate at Windsor from a decent-sized sample while Cox is operating at 8% from 120 rides here. With only two runs on his record and a low data confidence rating this remains guesswork at best and he holds a KTB Fit of 46.
Sunnie JimKTB Fit 45/100
Sunnie Jim has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing seventh of eight then last of seven, and now steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgear. The yard's 9% strike rate from 120 runs at Windsor offers no encouragement, nor does Harry Davies' 9% record from 56 rides here. With only two runs on the clock and a low data confidence this remains very much a watching brief and his KTB Fit is 45.
Clarissa EclipseKTB Fit 42/100
Clarissa Eclipse has shown only modest form in two starts so far and has yet to trouble the judge. The trip looks a fair test on pedigree but she has already been tried over it without success. Both trainer and jockey have established but below-average records at Windsor and she has a KTB Fit of 42.
Digger OneKTB Fit 40/100
Digger One has had just two career runs and remains lightly raced with limited public form to go on. The drop back from 2m to 1m2f asks a fresh question while the yard has failed to land a winner from 11 runs at Windsor. Gordon's 4% strike rate from 121 rides at the track adds to the cautious picture and his KTB Fit is 40.
KTB verdict
Cold Fish is the KTB Selection. He has the best recent placed form in the field, has already shown he can handle 1m2f, and benefits from a yard in excellent form at Windsor with a 25% strike rate. The limited number of runs means he must be treated with caution, yet on the balance of what is known he sets a clear standard. The main dangers are Zabeel Small, who showed promise on debut, and Egyptian Pharaoh, who brings the most runs and fair form to the table, though both have questions to answer on the trip and the surface.
KTB Selection Cold Fish
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Windsor?
Cold Fish, whose trainer Hilal Kobeissi has a 25% strike rate from 12 runs at the track with an A/E of 4.26.
How many runners are stepping up in trip to 1m2f for the first time?
Several including Roi De Coeur, Ice To Meet You, Egyptian Pharaoh, Adalo, Cormorant Rock and Sunnie Jim are unproven at the distance.
Who wears first-time headgear in this race?
Egyptian Pharaoh and Sunnie Jim are both fitted with headgear for the first time.
Which trainer has failed to record a winner at Windsor from their runners?
Keiran Burke has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Windsor with Digger One.
Which horse has the most experience on good to firm ground?
Clarissa Eclipse has two runs on good to firm, while Spinney and Fabled Spirit each have one.
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